It could be a cold winter in North Dakota, with normal snowfall, according to the initial winter outlook from the National Weather Service.
The agency won’t release its official winter outlook until Oct. 17, but its first peek released this week says La Niña conditions are expected to emerge this fall, with a good chance — 74% — that they’ll continue through the winter. A La Niña weather phenomenon is a cooling of the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences weather in the continental U.S.
The probability of a weak La Niña is high, while there is a medium (40%) chance of a moderate event. La Niña events typically favor colder and slightly wetter conditions during the winter in North Dakota, forecasters said. The outlook in the state right now for the upcoming winter is for equal chances for above- or below-normal snowfall. But there is a greater-than-35% chance of below-normal temperatures, with the strongest signal for colder weather during late winter through much of the spring (February through April).
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“Long-term trends suggest spring is cooling across North Dakota, which gives additional confidence that this period is favored for colder-than-normal temperatures, since the long-term trend and the expected La Niña signal give the same outcome,” the Weather Service office in Bismarck said.
Forecasters also said that, “This does not mean there won’t be any mild periods in the winter, or that winter won’t end up warmer than normal overall (30% chance). Colder temperatures overall would favor more events that are only snow compared to the mixed precipitation events we had last winter.”
Last winter was an El Niño, or warming of the Pacific waters, and it led to one of the warmest winters on record in western and central North Dakota. The previous three winters were La Niña years, including the winter of 2022-23, when Bismarck saw its second-highest snow total in history — 101.2 inches, less than half an inch shy of the record of 101.6 inches, set in 1996-97, and double the capital city’s average winter snowfall of 50.5 inches.
A snowplow heads north on U.S. Highway 83 north of Bismarck in February 2024.
Fall arriving
The fall season ahead of a La Niña winter tends to be mild and drier, with an abrupt transition to winterlike temperatures in late fall, forecaster said.
In North Dakota, “There is a slight tilt (33-40% chance) for above-normal temperatures this fall, with equal chances for above-, below-, or near-normal precipitation,” the weather service said. “La Niña falls are typically mild before a sharp drop into colder temperatures in the late-fall season, that marks the start of winter temperatures that are then favored to persist into the spring.”
Astronomical fall — what most people think of as the autumn season — officially begins on Sunday, Sept. 22. Astronomical fall is associated with the autumnal equinox, when the sun is directly above the equator, and day and night are of equal length.
Meteorological fall, which is based on the annual temperature cycle and the calendar year, began Monday with the start of September, and continues through November.
Weather Service climate data for the concluded summer season showed average temperatures were near normal for Bismarck (0.1 degree above normal), Dickinson (0.2 degree above) and Jamestown (0.7 degree above); while Minot’s average was 1.8 degrees below normal.
Precipitation was 1.64 inches above normal in Jamestown, but below normal in the other three cities: Bismarck, 0.28 inches below; Dickinson, 0.58 inches below; and Minot, 2.97 inches below.
“Rainfall amounts can vary significantly over small areas due to thunderstorms bringing heavy rain, so seasonal totals from locations near the airport (where totals are measured) could be pretty different,” the Weather Service said.
Bismarck’s precipitation total for the calendar year as of Tuesday was 14.69 inches, 0.05 inches below normal, with 8.65 inches of that coming during the summer season.
Near-term weather
This week will feature a roller coaster ride of temperatures in the Bismarck-Mandan area.
Tuesday’s high was expected to climb into the low 90s, but temps are then forecast to plunge as the workweek wears on and a cold front pushes through from the west. Highs later in the week could be only in the upper 60s, with lows in the lower 40s, and a chance of showers late Wednesday. Normal for this time of year is a high in the upper 70s and a low around 50.
Temps are expected to slowly rise again through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look pleasant, with highs in the 70s and mostly clear skies.
Global reinsurance firm, Gallagher Re, have named Hail as the highest weather damage this year caused in the United States. Hail is produced from the raindrops that are circulated into the atmosphere by thunderstorms. This year thunderstorms have been responsible for $61 dollars in US economic losses. Hailstones represent approximately 39 to 49 billion dollars of those economic losses, and account for 50-80% of thunderstorm-related insurance claims. Research by Northern Illinois University suggests that due to global warming, the size of hailstones that are 1.5 inches or larger will become more frequent. This frequency depends on the greenhouse gas pollution humans emit. Larger hailstones are projected to further increase insurance premiums in the U.S. “Thunderstorm losses are a really, really big piece of why premiums continue to go up and why there’s this massive reassessment of risk by not just the insurance industry, but banks and the federal government,” Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer of Gallagher Re. On Monday, Nebraska native Barb Berlin reported her experience of a fist-sized hailstone hitting her garage’s tin roof. Berlin thought the sound of the hailstone was a gun. Scientists intend to have the first U.S field study of hail since the 1970’s next year, where hailstorms will be chased similarly to tornadoes.
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