USC and Iowa to the CFP? 8 wins for Michigan? Ranking Big Ten overreactions to Week 1

USC and Penn State are headed to the College Football Playoff. Oregon and Michigan are overrated. Nebraska is back, and Iowa’s offense is fixed. These takes could end up looking prophetic or silly a few weeks from now, which is part of what makes Week 1 so enjoyable.

All season, The Athletic’s writers will be checking in with rankings of various Big Ten topics. This week, Jesse Temple and Austin Meek collected Big Ten fans’ Week 1 overreactions and ranked the top 10 submissions from most realistic to most outlandish.

1. USC can hang with the Big Ten top teams and will make the Playoff. — Gary R.

I won’t argue with these two sentiments following USC’s 27-20 victory against LSU in Las Vegas to open the season. The Trojans now boast a quality win for their Playoff resume and have opportunities against Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame, among others. Even if USC loses two of those games and finishes 10-2, that could be a Playoff-worthy season.

It’s fair to say USC is in position to exceed expectations after demonstrating the physicality necessary to succeed in the Big Ten. And in two career starts, quarterback Miller Moss has thrown for 750 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. — Temple

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2. Michigan’s offense is bottom 50 percent in the Big Ten. The Wolverines will win eight games and will fall short of the Playoff. — Paul B.

This isn’t exactly a molten-hot take for anybody who watched the Wolverines struggle to move the ball against Fresno State. Donovan Edwards had 27 yards on 11 carries and Michigan’s quarterbacks averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt, worse than every Power 4 team in Week 1 outside of Texas A&M. The offensive line has issues to sort out, and Michigan’s limitations at wide receiver were apparent. Scoring points could be a challenge this year in Ann Arbor.

Every year, there are good teams that underperform in Week 1 and go on to have successful seasons. With Texas coming to Michigan Stadium on Saturday, it’s understandable that the Wolverines might have been peeking ahead. But unless Michigan can find some magic at quarterback, it’s no stretch to imagine the Wolverines finishing 8-4 with losses to Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio State. — Meek

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3. Penn State and Ohio State will play each other three times this season: regular season, conference championship and in the Playoff. — Foster S.

This is a great take because it’s two overreactions in one. Foster is buying Penn State based on its admittedly impressive performance against West Virginia and selling Oregon based on its admittedly shaky performance against Idaho. Of the two openers, I see Penn State’s as the more accurate reflection of the season ahead. We knew Penn State’s defense would be nasty. If the offense is as explosive as it looked in a 34-12 victory against the Mountaineers, the Nittany Lions should challenge for a spot in the Big Ten championship game and a CFP bid. In fact, The Athletic’s Playoff model gives Penn State the fifth-best odds nationally of making the CFP at 74 percent — third in the Big Ten behind the Buckeyes and Ducks.

Oregon’s 24-14 victory seems like an anomaly. Dillon Gabriel went 41-for-49 for 380 yards and the Ducks outgained Idaho 487 yards to 217 with only one turnover, yet Oregon won by just 10 points. Oregon’s inability to run the ball was the biggest concern, as the Ducks averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. That won’t cut it with Boise State and Ashton Jeanty coming to Eugene on Saturday.

Putting Penn State ahead of Oregon is an overreaction, but it’s not a big one. It’s looking more and more like the Big Ten race will turn on two games on Oct. 12: Penn State at USC and Ohio State at Oregon. — Meek

4. Jeremiah Smith has a great chance to win the Biletnikoff Award and the Heisman Trophy. — Marcus O.

Smith won’t win the Biletnikoff or the Heisman (yet), but he’s well on his way to being the next great Ohio State wide receiver who could be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Smith, the No. 1 overall 2024 recruit in the 247Sports Composite, finished Ohio State’s 52-6 season-opening victory against Akron with six catches for 92 yards and became the first Buckeyes freshman in 26 years with two touchdown catches in his debut.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day summed it up best when he said: “Sometimes you look at him, you don’t even think he’s quite human.”

Emeka Egbuka, a projected first-round pick, is going to take some opportunities away from Smith, which prevents him from racking up the types of huge numbers other players will attain. The early Biletnikoff Award frontrunner has to be Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, who caught 10 passes for a ridiculous 304 yards and four touchdowns during a 61-39 victory against New Mexico. — Temple

5. Purdue makes a bowl game and upsets one of Notre Dame or Oregon along the way. — Ethan W.

Let’s not get carried away, but Purdue did look sharp in its 49-0 victory against Indiana State. Devin Mockobee runs hard, and Hudson Card (24-for-25, 273 yards, four touchdowns) would be an upgrade for a few teams around the Big Ten (hello, Michigan). It’s a shame Purdue lost edge rusher Nic Scourton to Texas A&M and wide receiver Deion Burks to Oklahoma. Otherwise, the Boilermakers probably wouldn’t have been picked near the bottom of the Big Ten in Ryan Walters’ second season.

Notre Dame visits West Lafayette next Saturday after an off week for the Boilermakers, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Purdue is for real. Upsetting the Ducks or the Fighting Irish would make the bowl math look a lot better, as the Boilermakers also have to play Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. Putting Purdue in a bowl game based on a shutout of Indiana State qualifies as an overreaction, but given Purdue’s history of upsets, this isn’t the craziest take of Week 1. — Meek

6. Iowa is bound for the CFP (assuming Cade McNamara and Reece Vander Zee go off most weeks!) even in the tougher Big Ten. — Michael C.

There were a number of Iowa hot takes in our submissions, including the Hawkeyes being a top-five Big Ten team and having an offense that averages 25 points per game this season (RIP Drive For 325). Both feel possible following a 40-0 victory against Illinois State to begin the Tim Lester era on offense.

As for cracking the 12-team Playoff? I’ll say Iowa just misses out. The schedule outside Ohio State is manageable. But there are going to be several Big Ten slugfests the Hawkeyes will need to escape in order to be a legitimate Playoff contender in late November. Iowa won five one-possession games a year ago and might need to do something similar to have a chance. — Temple

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7. Michigan State and UCLA will go winless in conference play. — Lewis W. 

Needing a late field goal to beat Hawaii in Week 1 is, indeed, an ominous sign for UCLA. So was Michigan State’s lackluster win against FAU, a game in which Aidan Chiles went 10-for-24 with two interceptions. These teams don’t play each other in the regular season, so it’s mathematically possible that they could go a combined 0-18 in the Big Ten. They’d both have to lose at home to Indiana, which beat FIU 31-7 in Curt Cignetti’s debut. Outside of those games against the Hoosiers, the Spartans and Bruins aren’t likely to be favored against many teams on their schedules.

It’s not a terribly hot take to say that of the Big Ten’s first-year head coaches, Jonathan Smith and DeShaun Foster are in for the roughest ride in Year 1. Odds are they’ll get a Big Ten win somewhere, but then again … maybe not? — Meek

8. Rutgers will finish in the top six of the Big Ten, ahead of both Michigan and USC. — Andy S.

Either Andy is a Rutgers fan, or the Scarlet Knights’ 44-7 win against Howard was just that impressive. Athan Kaliakmanis is no Miller Moss, but he did throw three touchdowns in his Rutgers debut. Kyle Monangai (19 carries, 165 yards, one touchdown) is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten, and the Scarlet Knights are stout on defense. Though the final score looks impressive, Rutgers led 14-7 late in the first half and padded its margin with two late touchdowns in the fourth quarter. As overreactions go, picking Rutgers ahead of Michigan and USC based on that performance is a big one.

This take says as much about USC and Michigan as it does about Rutgers. Andy is going against the grain with the Trojans, who looked like a CFP contender in their win against LSU. Picking Michigan to finish in the middle of the pack is one of those classic Week 1 overreactions that could end up coming true. If any of the frontrunners falter, Rutgers is a team that could benefit, in part because of its schedule. The Scarlet Knights don’t play Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Iowa or Michigan. — Meek

9. Wisconsin goes 4-8. AD Chris McIntosh forces changes at OC and DC after the season. Luke Fickell resigns and takes the Washington State job. Jake Dickert accepts an offer from the Badgers. — Shawn G.

Now this is a take! Wisconsin opened the season with an underwhelming 28-14 victory against Western Michigan that opened the door to questions about whether the Badgers are any better than they were a year ago, when they went 7-6 in Fickell’s debut season. I predicted before this season that Wisconsin would finish 7-5 because the Badgers no longer earn the benefit of the doubt in games against better teams: Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, USC and Iowa. But there’s a real possibility Wisconsin could lose more if it can’t stop the run, push people around with its O-line or be a more dynamic passing offense. And if that’s the case, then the Badgers are fighting to keep their streak of 22 consecutive bowl game appearances alive. Road games against Rutgers and Nebraska sure don’t look like locks with how those teams performed in Week 1.

I don’t envision 4-8, but there’s clearly a thin line between that and bowl eligibility. If this team continues to struggle, then I’d expect Fickell won’t hesitate to make at least some changes, as he did last offseason when he moved on from offensive line coach Jack Bicknell Jr. Fickell isn’t going anywhere, by the way. Not with an average annual salary of $7.8 million and with his competitive desire to elevate the program. Washington State can’t afford Fickell. Dickert was making $2.7 million annually and then took a mandatory pay cut as the Cougars dealt with the fallout from being left behind in conference realignment. But at least Dickert, a Wisconsin native, is 2-0 as Washington State’s coach against the Badgers. — Temple

10. Nebraska has the pieces to not only be 7-0, but to beat Ohio State and continue its unbeaten season. — Will V.

Nebraska’s 40-7 victory against UTEP, in which the Cornhuskers scored 33 unanswered points to break an early tie, was impressive. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns in his college debut, is as advertised. His addition gives Nebraska fans hope the team can open the season 7-0, but I’m not on that bandwagon yet. Not for a program that hasn’t been to a bowl game in eight years and hasn’t played with the weight of expectations in a long time.

Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana are the first four conference games up for Nebraska. Even if Nebraska can get to 5-2 (or 6-1) heading into Ohio State, it would represent major progress. Beating Ohio State at the Horseshoe is another matter entirely. — Temple

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(Top photo of USC’s Kyle Ford: Candice Ward / Getty Images)

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