With Election Day just around the corner on November 5, 2024, the United States is deep into its final sprint toward choosing its next president. This election holds immense significance not only for the American political landscape but also for global dynamics. The upcoming weeks promise critical events, as early voting has already begun in several states. Beyond the presidential race, voters will also decide the fate of the House of Representatives, approximately a third of the Senate, and various state and local-level offices.
As the campaigns heat up, several key moments and factors will shape the outcome of the election. Here’s what to watch for in this crucial period leading up to Election Day:
Early voting has begun in some states, and the push to get out the vote is intensifying. This election is not only about who can win the battle of ideas but also about who can turn out the most voters. Both major candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are focusing on energizing their respective bases while targeting swing voters in battleground states.
Campaign rallies, local media appearances, and social media are crucial tools for both candidates as they race to sway undecided voters and maximize turnout. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the ability to motivate voters-particularly those who are politically disengaged-may tip the balance in a tight contest. Historically, these states have played a decisive role in US presidential elections, and 2024 will be no different.
One of the most significant developments in this election season was the June 27 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Initially bypassing the traditional Commission on Presidential Debates, both candidates negotiated their terms for a one-off debate on CNN. Biden’s performance was widely criticized, sparking concerns about his age and mental sharpness. The aftermath of this debate saw a dramatic shift in polling, with Trump surging ahead and many Democrats calling for a change in the party’s candidate.
This culminated in Biden withdrawing from the race, endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris, and uniting the Democratic Party around her candidacy. The Democratic National Convention in August officially nominated Harris, marking a historic moment as she became the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket.
On September 10, Harris and Trump faced off in a highly anticipated debate on ABC News. The debate sparked mixed reactions, with Trump indicating that he may not participate in any further debates. However, Harris has expressed her willingness to engage in more debates if the opportunity arises. As of now, there are no confirmed plans for additional presidential debates, but the vice presidential candidates, JD Vance (Republican) and Tim Walz (Democratic), are scheduled to debate on October 1.
With only weeks remaining before the election, both campaigns are executing well-honed strategies. Kamala Harris is focusing on energizing Democratic voters who are enthusiastic about her historic candidacy while making a concerted effort to attract swing voters. Harris’ strategy involves balancing her appeal to progressives with a message that resonates with moderates and independents. Her campaign is focusing heavily on issues like reproductive rights, healthcare, and the economy.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s campaign seeks to maintain his core supporters’ energy while targeting disillusioned and disengaged voters. His campaign has emphasized law and order, economic growth, and immigration control. Trump’s rallies in battleground states have become critical venues for rallying support, and his message is aimed at mobilizing nontraditional voters who may have sat out previous elections. Notably, both campaigns have been leaning more on local and niche media outlets rather than traditional national news, reducing the number of broadly televised interviews.
US elections are no strangers to the concept of the “October Surprise” -an unexpected event or revelation in the final weeks before Election Day that has the potential to shift the outcome. In previous elections, such surprises have taken many forms, from revelations about candidates’ personal lives to major geopolitical developments.
The 2024 race has already been marked by shocking events, including two attempts on Donald Trump’s life and the last-minute withdrawal of Joe Biden from the race. The prospect of another unforeseen development looms large, adding an additional layer of uncertainty in these final weeks. Political observers and the campaigns themselves remain on high alert, anticipating the possibility of a major development that could reshape the race.
Polling in the final weeks of the election cycle often dominates political discourse, providing insights into the state of the race. However, while national polls may offer a general picture, the most critical polling data comes from battleground states. These states, such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, will likely determine the election’s outcome. Current polls suggest a tight race, with results often falling within the margin of error.
However, it is essential to approach polling with caution, especially in such a close race. While polls can give a sense of trends, they are not always predictive, particularly in a contest as volatile as the 2024 election. Election observers should focus more on trends in specific states rather than national polling averages.
This election takes place under the shadow of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, an event that has deeply divided the nation. Narratives around the causes and significance of the attack vary sharply along partisan lines, with many Trump supporters framing it as a protest against electoral fraud, while Democrats and other critics view it as a violent insurrection.
The 2024 election is the first presidential race since that attack, and concerns about the peaceful transfer of power remain palpable. Trump’s continued insistence that the 2020 election was stolen, coupled with the possibility of a contested 2024 result, has raised fears that the aftermath of this election could be tumultuous. Many Trump supporters are unlikely to accept a Harris victory, and some Democrats may be unwilling to concede if Trump wins by a narrow margin, given the polarizing nature of this election cycle.
Should the election result be close, the post-election period could be fraught with legal challenges and disputes over the legitimacy of the vote. Trump has already indicated that he is prepared to contest votes that favor Harris, deploying significant resources to challenge ballots in key states. This sets the stage for a potentially protracted battle that could delay the final result for days or even weeks.
Given the stakes, the 2024 election is poised to shape the future of US politics and global affairs for years to come. With so many variables still in play, from polling shifts to potential October surprises, the only certainty is that the final weeks before Election Day will be as unpredictable as they are consequential. As Americans-and the world-wait to see who will take the helm of the White House, the outcome of this election will resonate far beyond the nation’s borders.
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