The three main quantum technologies are quantum communications, quantum computing, and quantum sensing. First, a very little bit about quantum physics. According to Cal Tech, “Quantum physics is the study of matter and energy at the most fundamental level. It aims to uncover the properties and behaviors of the very building blocks of nature.” The central concepts of quantum physics are very esoteric things like wave-particle duality, superposition, the uncertainty principle, and entanglement.
These concepts are all very exciting, but what does it mean in a practical sense, and why is it important to the average American?
It is important in that quantum science has the promise to bring ever more advanced methods of communications, computing, and sensing to the world. Quantum technology has such potential that for whoever perfects it first, it will be like the invention of the light bulb as a world-shaking phenomenon that will change things forever. Whoever is the leader in this field will gain great advantages and power over those lagging behind.
Guess who is leading the world in quantum communications? You guessed it, China. Who is leading the world in quantum computing? Most say the U.S. is leading, but other sources say that China has caught up and will quickly surge ahead. Who is leading the world in quantum sensing? Again, the consensus is that it is also China. Who has a centralized, disciplined approach to divining the secrets of the quantum world? Again, China. The U.S. effort is small in investment terms and fractured between government, academia, and business, with less than optimal coordination or cooperation between the various entities pursuing it. Whoever wins this race will likely be more powerful and more advanced and will lead the world of tomorrow.
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) has done a comprehensive analysis of the quantum field and published its results in a new report. Some of the findings of this report are:
- China has over $15B in public quantum funding, far ahead of the U.S. at only $3.8 billion.
- China benefits from Western efforts in the quantum field, which tend to be very open such that they garner the benefits of others’ efforts while carefully concealing what research they are doing.
- Quantum technologies are critical for national defense and potentially transformative for the economy and society.
- China has the world’s longest quantum key distribution network, which stretches 1,200 miles and connects four major cities — Beijing, Jinan, Hefei, and Shanghai.
- China boasts the world’s only quantum satellite, which has been in operation since 2016.
- China is at the forefront of secure, long-distance quantum communications.
- China focuses on turning innovative research into practical commercial applications quickly.
- China’s efforts are done in secret with little to no international collaborations.
- China values:
- Secure communications that ensure confidentiality and integrity
- Development of computers exponentially faster than conventional computers
- Enhanced sensing and measurement using quantum technology
- China has consolidated commercial quantum research into the government, which ensures complete control over development and deployment.
- According to international experts, China is significantly ahead of the rest of the world, including the U.S., in using quantum communications.
- China has already fielded devices that enable the detection of submarines and other hidden threats. This represents a significant problem for the U.S. in and around the South China Sea, where tensions are already high.
- The Chinese government dictates the linking of research results being integrated into their industry. For example, they can order the centralization by location of Chinese industry in the same geographical area and thereby gain an advantage in the fielding of that technology.
- The analysis by ITIF concludes, “The United States approaches quantum innovation as a ‘Vannevar Bush science project’ rather than as a national security of competitiveness priority.” Meanwhile, “China’s approach is designed for speed and efficiency.”
- China leads the U.S. in global research output in all three areas:
- 38% to 13% in communications
- 23% to 21% in computing
- 25% to 15% in sensing
- China leads in patents, 6,000 to 3,300 for the U.S.
- China’s effort in the quantum realm focuses on national security over commercial objectives.
- During the National CCP Congress in 2017, President Xi Jinping articulated a vision for China to lead the U.S. in quantum science, so this is a political goal, not just a scientific one.
ITIF’s conclusions:
- There is broad consensus that the U.S. needs to spend more on quantum science.
- The U.S. should move quickly to commercialize the quantum industry.
- The U.S. should treat quantum technology as a national security and economic imperative, not just a scientific pursuit.
- Export controls are vital for safeguarding quantum technologies from misuse and to prevent an advantage to China.
Science has just started to scratch the surface of the quantum world. How it will play out is unknown. Suffice it to say that China is serious about dominating the field. The quantum world in science fiction involves concepts such as time travel, wormholes for spaceships to travel incredible distances instantaneously, or quantum world portals for instantaneous transportation. Whatever it brings, the U.S. better discover it before China does. Imagine our dismay if the critical breakthroughs are made by China. If what is depicted in science fiction is anywhere close to the truth, the U.S. better win the race to perfect quantum technology. If China wins this race, it will rule the world.
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