Private sector economists are predicting that a key Bank of Japan survey due out next week will show business sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers has remained much the same as three months earlier.
The central bank is scheduled to release the results of its quarterly Tankan survey on October 1.
Ten research institutes have announced their predictions for the survey. Their forecasts for the large manufacturers’ index range from plus 11 to plus 14.
Five forecast confidence to improve from the plus 13 mark logged in the previous survey, one expects the figure to remain the same and four say it will be lower. Analysts expect changes to be small either way.
Large manufacturer sentiment has gradually improved from plus 1 in the March 2023 survey.
Many analysts think recovery in automaker output after a test data falsification scandal may help lift sentiment.
How the yen’s recent turnaround has affected the mood is a topic of interest. The effects of China’s economic slowdown and recent typhoons and earthquakes are also being closely watched.
For large non-manufacturers, forecasts range from plus 29 to plus 35. Six of the 10 think tanks expect a labor shortage and natural disasters to drive the reading down from the plus 33 logged in the previous survey. But they say any changes will be small.
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