As former President Donald Trump worked to scuttle a bipartisan border deal in Congress because it threatened to derail his campaign’s focus on immigration, Republicans in Arizona unveiled a plan to empower local officials to jail and deport migrants, decrying the federal government’s lack of solutions.
“Arizona is in a crisis,” state Senate President Warren Petersen said
in late January. “This is directly due to the negligent inaction of the
Biden administration.”
What followed were months of GOP lawmakers in Arizona making use of
Trump’s border security rhetoric, employing xenophobic language to cast
immigrants and asylum-seekers as criminals. But there was strident
opposition to the plan, too, from many Latino and immigrant Arizonans
who traveled to the state Capitol to protest the legislation.
Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer starkly different plans
for the future of the 11 million people who live in the United States
without legal status. Harris, in a bid to stave off accusations that
she’s soft on the border, has sought to establish a firm security
stance. To that end, she has vowed to bring back and sign the torpedoed
bipartisan border deal.
On the campaign trail, Trump has taken a far more hawkish approach,
promising mass deportations. He has offered few details, other than that
he would be willing to involve the U.S. National Guard. President Joe
Biden, Trump and other recent presidents have deployed the National Guard or military troops to support Border Patrol actions, but not in direct law enforcement roles.
Immigration has consistently ranked high among voter concerns
nationwide, following heightened political rhetoric and a
record-breaking number of unlawful border crossings in late 2023. Those
numbers have since plummeted to a three-year low, but the U.S. border with Mexico remains a key talking point for Republican politicians.
But immigration is a far more complex topic than border security
alone, and strategists may be miscalculating by failing to consider some
key voters and their nuanced perspectives, recent polling shows.
Growing populations of new and first-generation citizens in the swing
states — with the power to sway elections — are transforming
demographics and voter concerns.
In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed the legislation that
would have allowed local law enforcement to usurp federal authority on
immigration, but Republicans repackaged it as a ballot initiative called
the “Secure the Border Act.” In a state that Biden won by fewer than 11,000 votes four years ago,
and where political strategists anticipate high voter turnout, the
ballot measure serves as a test of whether the GOP’s immigration
position will drive people to the polls in a swing state.
While many Republicans hope the immigration issue boosts their chances in down-ballot races, progressive organizations are working to mobilize voters in opposition through canvassing and voter registration drives.
Living United for Change in Arizona was established in the aftermath
of the state’s controversial “show me your papers” law — SB 1070 —
passed 14 years ago by Republican lawmakers. LUCHA Chief of Staff Abril
Gallardo derided this year’s Secure the Border Act as the latest
iteration of that law.
“Arizonans are sick of Republicans trying to bring back the SB 1070
era of separating families, mass deportations and children in detention
centers,” she said. “We’re here to say, ‘Not on our watch.’”
The ballot measure has been widely criticized as greenlighting
discrimination. Among other provisions, it would make it a state crime
for migrants to cross the southern border anywhere except a legal port
of entry and punish first-time offenders with six months in jail. Local
police officers would be authorized to carry out arrests based on
suspicion of illegal entry, and Arizona judges would be empowered to
issue orders of deportation, undermining court rulings that have concluded that enforcing immigration law is the sole purview of the federal government.
Gallardo said that LUCHA is focused on engaging with voters to ensure
the proposal fails. The organization is part of a coalition of advocacy
groups committed to knocking on more than 3 million doors before
November.
“They can try to ignore us, but come Election Day and beyond, they
will hear us, they will see us, and they will feel the strength of our
movement,” she said.
An August UnidosUS and BSP Research survey
asked Latino voters in Arizona about their top priorities on several
issues related to immigration policy. The results show strong support
for protecting longtime residents from deportation and offering them a
path to citizenship — along with cracking down on human smugglers and
drug traffickers. Policies centered on building a wall or mass
deportation ranked near the bottom. In recent years, Latino voters in
the state have helped reject virulently anti-immigrant candidates.
Latino voting strength
In 2020, Latinos made up about 20% of the state’s electorate, and they largely favored Biden over Trump. Then, two years later, a record-breaking number of Latinos voted in an election that saw Democrats win statewide offices. Today, 1 in 4 Arizona voters is Latino, and a new poll from Univision estimates that more than 600,000 will cast their ballots in the state’s November election.
The Grand Canyon State is far from the only swing state with both impactful Latino and new-citizen voting blocs.
Still, campaigns might be ignoring these voters. The UnidosUS poll showed 51% of Latino voters in Georgia hadn’t been contacted by either party or any campaign, even though 56% say they’re sure they’ll vote.
“This is, I think, a wake-up call for both parties to reach out into
the Latino community,” said BSP senior analyst Stephen Nuño-Perez in a Georgia Recorder story. “There’s still not a lot of education out there on why Latinos should be voting for one party or the other.”
The numbers hovered right around there in other swing states. In Pennsylvania, that was true for 50% of the people polled. In North Carolina, it was 49%. In Nevada, 53%. In each case, a higher percentage said they plan to vote.
Influence grows in dairy country
The number of Latino voters in Wisconsin is a fraction of the
electorate that lives in states closer to the U.S.-Mexico border but no
less impactful. There are roughly 180,000 eligible Latino voters who call the Badger State home. Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 by a margin of just 25,000 votes, less than 1 percentage point.
Christine Neumann-Ortiz is the executive director of Voces de la
Frontera, a civil and workers rights organization that advocates on
behalf of immigrants. She said that over time, the Latino vote has
become increasingly sought after by politicians looking to gain office.
“If you don’t get it, you don’t win it,” she said.
Neumann-Ortiz said that the rise of the Latino electorate has
translated into political power. The group has been a longtime backer of
driver’s licenses for Wisconsinites without full citizenship status,
and occupational licenses for recipients of Deferred Action for
Childhood Arrivals, a federal policy that grants temporary work permits
and protection from deportation to people who arrived in the country as
minors.
Nineteen states and the District of Columbia allow people without
citizenship status to obtain driver’s licenses. And just 12 give DACA
recipients the opportunity to obtain medical or legal licenses.
Legislation in Wisconsin to open up access to either license was
blocked by the GOP legislative majority, though the movement behind the
proposals drew support from top officials, including Democratic Gov.
Tony Evers, who backed driver’s licenses for all as a policy priority
last year. Influential lobbying organizations, such as the Wisconsin
Farm Bureau Federation and the Dairy Business Association, both of which
lean conservative, also threw their weight behind the push for
universal driver’s licenses.
Neumann-Ortiz attributes that support to the fact that immigrants
make up a large part of the state’s dairy and agricultural industries.
And in rural areas where dairy operations and farms are located, public
transportation is sparse. United Migrant Opportunity Services, a
Milwaukee-based farmworker advocacy organization, estimates that as much
as 40% of the state’s dairy workers are immigrants. Other estimates indicate they contribute 80% of the labor on dairy farms.
Despite being over 1,000 miles away from the U.S.-Mexico border,
immigration and border security are key issues for Wisconsinites, and
their positions appear mixed. In a September survey from
Marquette University’s Law School, 49% said they agreed with deporting
all immigrants who have lived in the country for years, have jobs and no
criminal record, while 51% opposed it.
Newly minted citizens stand to break new electoral ground
Laila Martin Garcia moved to the United States with her husband and
infant son eight years ago. November will be the first time she casts
her ballot for a U.S. presidential candidate since she became a
naturalized citizen two years ago in Pennsylvania, and she’s elated.
“The main reason for me to become a citizen was to vote,” she said.
“You know, this is home. This is where my husband is, where my son is
being raised, and I wanted to make sure that I was using my voice in any
way possible.”
She’s part of another segment of the electorate that will have a
chance to respond in the voting booth to the election-year emphasis on
immigration: newly naturalized voters. In fiscal year 2023, just over
878,000 immigrants became naturalized
U.S. citizens, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a
nonpartisan think tank. That number represents a slight decline from the
previous fiscal year, when a little more than 969,000 people achieved
naturalization –— the highest number of new citizens in a decade.
Newly naturalized voters can close the gaps in swing state races,
according to Nancy Flores, who serves as the deputy director of the
National Partnership for New Americans, a coalition of immigrant and
refugee rights organizations.
Every presidential election year, the coalition partners with local
organizations to assist eligible immigrants as they embark on the
naturalization process and help newly naturalized citizens register to
vote. New citizens, Flores said, are a great investment, because once
they’ve made a commitment to vote, they will likely continue to do so.
And naturalized voters appear to cast their ballots at higher rates than
U.S.-born citizens. In the 2020 election, about 66% of the general
electorate turned out to vote, compared with nearly 87% of naturalized
voters surveyed by the organization.
This year appears on track to repeat that trend: As many as 97.3% of naturalized voters
residing in states polled by the National Partnership for New Americans
— including in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and
Pennsylvania — reported that they plan to vote this fall.
“For a lot of folks, reaching the point of citizenship is really a
lifetime achievement,” Flores said. “And we see that folks really don’t
take that lightly.”
And while Flores noted that naturalized citizens don’t fit one single
voter profile, most of them do share an immigrant background and so are
sympathetic on the issue.
“New American voters are not a monolith,” she said. “Folks that are
naturalized are doctors, professors. We have folks that are naturalized
that are picking the fruit that we eat. It really runs the gamut, but
the common thread is the immigrant experience.”
A poll conducted by the organization
found that naturalized voters share many of the same concerns as other
U.S. voters, including worries about inflation and the economy. But,
Flores added, candidates who are looking to attract naturalized voters
are likely to be most successful with the demographic group when they
present a positive view of immigration.
“Looking at immigration as an asset to our country, looking at how it
can benefit the economy, looking at how we can provide pathways [to
citizenship] that are humane — those things resonated with voters,” she
said.
Similarly, Martin Garcia’s experiences as an immigrant have colored
her views as a voter. Immigration reform, she said, is at the top of her
priorities. Originally from Barcelona, Spain, Martin Garcia arrived in
the U.S. in the middle of Trump’s first campaign, and she said she saw
firsthand what his anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies wrought.
In her work as an advocate, she frequently helped families torn apart
by deportations, and in her personal life, while trying to share her
language and culture with her son, she dealt with nativist hostility.
During one incident at the grocery store, while she was helping her
toddler identify items in Spanish, a stranger accosted her.
“I remember he came up to me and said, ‘We’re in America, speak
American,’” she recalled. “Now that I think of that moment, I have so
many things to say to that person. But at that moment, I was so scared. I
just took my child, left my cart there with half of my groceries, and
left the shop.”
Today, she recalls that incident, and the rallies and protests during
Trump’s presidency, as catalysts for her civic engagement. Martin
Garcia said she views the 2024 election as an opportunity to look out
for the immigrant community’s needs.
“We deserve to thrive, and we will be thinking about that,” she said.
“We have to make sure that our communities have the right to thrive in
this election.”
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