Global tourism has reached 96% of pre-pandemic levels; tails are up
The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in September may not mean much in terms of disposable income, at least in the short term, but our tails are up. The first cut in four years signals rising confidence, and as South Africans head into the last quarter of the year — and our peak holiday season — we’re buoyed by the promise of more cuts to come (with economists anticipating another 25 basis points by November), softening consumer inflation, lower fuel prices, a working GNU (Government of National Unity), a strengthening rand, and a stable energy grid (thanks to almost 200 days without load-shedding).
For Euan McNeil, Managing Director Flight Centre Travel Group (FCTG) this means an increase in traveller confidence too.
“The majority of South Africans book their December holidays between two and four months in advance,” explains McNeil. “This means people are starting to plan their end-of-year break now, with factors like inflation, the cost of living, fuel prices and disposable income all playing a role.”
Interestingly, McNeil notes that while consumer confidence is important, travel has a way of influencing one’s financial decisions. “A survey published by BDO Global in March 2024 shows that travel has the highest rate of spend intention among discretionary or non-essential expenditure categories — including entertainment, subscriptions, beauty, and hobbies. This is a global trend, but we can see it in South Africa too,” says McNeil. “South Africans want to travel, especially over December and January. They need the break.”
With just over two months to go until the end of the school year, McNeil expects to see the following trends play out:
Local travel: According to McNeil, travel within South Africa accounts for 65% of FCTG’s booking numbers. Budgets, exchange rates, and actual leave time etc. all play into the “stay local” vs “fly international” decision. For many South African families, international holidays are still out of reach and McNeil says we can expect more local exploration, road trips and staycations — which is great news for the local hospitality industry.
Fam favourites: For families who are able to travel beyond our borders, Mauritius, Zanzibar, Thailand, UAE and the US remain popular. The average lead time for holiday packages, for example, beach breaks over Christmas and New Year, is slightly longer than other holiday types, so McNeil suggests getting in early. “Chat to your travel expert as soon as possible, as there may still be some options available, but your window for the December holidays — especially when it comes to the Indian Ocean Islands — is closing fast.”
Value for money: South Africans, young and old, still appreciate value for money and McNeil says the demand for tailored, cost-effective packages continues to grow. “People tend to allocate funds for travel, even when times are tight,” says McNeil. “So, Flight Centre works with key partners to ensure we can offer great deals, including all-inclusive packages, cruises, and tours, to ensure customers get the best out of their holiday.”
Southeast Asia: Couples and solo travellers are important segments for FCTG, and while domestic travel remains strong, McNeil says they’re seeing more and more interest in destinations like India, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. “All are relatively rand-friendly, and tick the boxes when it comes to climate, culture, food, beaches, adventure and exploration,” says McNeil.
South Africans are not the only ones feeling optimistic. According to the UN World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer, 790 million tourists travelled internationally in the first seven months of 2024 — about 11% more than in 2023 and 4% less than in 2019. This means global tourism has reached 96% of pre-pandemic levels. And according to the barometer, 47% of tourism experts “expect better performance for the sector in the last four months of 2024, while 41% project similar performance and only 11% worse”.
If arrivals at Cape Town International Airport are anything to go by, the last four months of 2024 could be very busy indeed. Wesgro reports that Cape Town’s international terminal saw a year-on-year growth of 11% in the first eight months of the year, with over 1.97 million passengers moving through the international terminal. The domestic terminal reported a 7% year-on-year growth at the end of August, with over 4.64 million passengers moving through its gates.
The 2023/2024 cruise season was also successful, with 80 257 passengers departing from the Cape Town Cruise Terminal (from six local and 53 international calls) according to Wesgro. Durban also got in on the action, with Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) reporting that the Port of Durban exceeded its planned vessel calls by nearly 50% this year, surpassing the expected 33 vessels.
Of course, the fact that South Africa is coming into summer only fuels that holiday feeling. “There really is only about eight weeks until the closure of government schools and the start of the traditional ‘builders’ holiday’,” says McNeil. “The time to book is now. There’s an appetite for travel and you don’t want to be disappointed.”
This post was originally published on here
