Spain is set to receive a staggering 115 million foreign tourists annually by around 2040 and will overtake France to be the top country in terms of incoming travellers through fast growth in the coming years.
According to a tourism barometer by the consultancy firm, Braintrust, Spain will exceed 91 million foreign travellers this year, with spending of around 125 billion euros (£104.2 billion), which will mean new record-high figures, and could spark panic in France’s tourist industry.
These increases are expected to continue in the coming decades, according to the firm.
According to the report, the international context, the evolution of the economy and the actions taken by the different destinations may influence the continued surpassing of historical records, not only in terms of tourist numbers but also in terms of spending.
In addition to the forecast given for 2040, which is a brutal warning to France, estimates suggest that in 2025, a total of 93 million foreign travellers will visit Spain. By 2030, the figure will reach 100 million and in 2035, it could soar to 107 million.
Since 2010, France has received an average of 77.8 million international visitors each year. In 2023 it became the first country to welcome 100 million international tourists in a single year.
Tourists flock to the northern European country for its beautiful beaches, mountains, vineyards, quiet, idyllic countryside and vibrant and bustling cities. Aside from Paris, tourists also tend to head to the south of France, including Nice and Montpellier, the French Alps for skiing and Strasbourg, for a perfect blend of French and German cultures thanks to its location close to the border. Annecy in the southeast is also known as the “Venice of the Alps”, known for its winding canals and enchanting old town.
Over time, the diversification of Spanish destinations will be observed, according to Braintrust, as the six communities that receive 90 percent of travellers – Andalusia, the Balearics, the Canary Islands, Catalonia, Valencia and Madrid – will see their share reduced in favour of others with less, the Majorca Daily Bulletin reported.
In the forecasts for the coming years, regions such as Galicia, Asturias, the Basque Country, Navarre, Castile and Leon, Castile-La Mancha and Extremdura will gain visitors attracted by their tourism proposals, at France’s expense.
The firm also highlights that the average daily expenditure of visitors will double in 2030 with respect to 2017, with an approximate figure of 280 euros (over £233) per day.
This figure could rise to 340 euros (over £283) per day between 2035 and 2040 – double that of 2022.
The weight of tourism in national GDP is expected to exceed 15 percent in the coming decades, a figure that is already being reached in some regions, including the Balearic and Canary Islands.
Such news will not be welcomed by those locals that have taken part in the recent protests over mass-tourism in Spain.
On October 13, thousands descended on Madrid to protest against extortionate house prices, with short-term holiday rentals the target for their anger. Residents called for better living conditions and lower housing rental price using the slogan “Housing is a right, not a business”, as they angrily marched through Spain’s capital city.
Just last weekend, in a coordinated protest across the Canary Islands which saw thousands participate, several British tourists were forced to “flee beaches” at popular Spanish destinations as frustrated locals demanded measures including raising the tourist tax or even implementing a complete “moratorium” on all visitors.
On the other end of the spectrum, France is also experiencing overtourism, but not to the same degree as Spain. Yet, France has barely seen a murmur about too many tourists or any protests, unlike Spain, apart from occasional grumbles about Emily in Paris-inspired influencers, according to The Telegraph.
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