If you’re the Patriots, where do you start?
The defensive linemen who got pushed around like blocking sleds?
The linebackers who couldn’t fit the run behind them and missed tackles?
The offensive linemen who failed to create any rushing lanes for a second straight week and yielded more than a dozen pressures?
Right now, there may not be a bad answer. The Patriots have regressed in a way any progress will suffice. Their six-game losing streak is a skid expedited by injury, but facilitated week after week by poor coaching.
It has to stop. Because in a game where the Patriots finally started fast, staking their first double-digit lead since Week 1, they got out-flanked and out-muscled over the last three quarters. Jacksonville beat them up, 32-16, and to the point Jerod Mayo called his own team “soft.”
But was it really that bad? And what can Mayo and Co. do to pick up the pieces?
Here’s what the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:
Drake Maye
26-of-37 for 276 yards, 2 TDs, 18 rushing yards
Accurate throw percentage: 72.2%
Under pressure: 6-of-12 for 89 yards, TD, 2 sacks, 2 rushing yards
Against the blitz: 2-of-5 for 22 yards, 1 sack
Behind the line: 10-of-10 for 57 yards, TD
0-9 yards downfield: 9-of-13 for 76 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-8 for 56 yards
20+ yards downfield: 3-of-5 for 87 yards, TD
Notes: A slight step back from his debut.
Maye was lucky to avoid an interception, tallying one more turnover-worthy play than he did against the Texans, whose defense is lightyears better than Jacksonville’s. He also threw an accurate pass on fewer than 70% of his downfield attempts within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Maye’s performance under pressure generally waned as the game wore on.
But overall, there was plenty to like here. Maye ripped his 22-yard touchdown to K.J. Osborn from a closing pocket on third-and-15, displaying a kind of toughness and velocity not often seen from rookies. He extended the Patriots’ second scoring drive, first by scrambling on third down and then escaping the pocket for a first-down conversion throw to Hunter Henry.
What Drake Maye took blame for after Patriots’ loss to Jaguars
Maye’s mobility unlocked some movement throws previously unavailable with Jacoby Brissett, though his play-action dropbacks (3-of-6 for 17 yards and a sack) could use some work. Considering Jacksonville had allowed more completions and passing yards off play-action than any other team entering Week 7, this is where it feels like the Patriots left some meat on the bone; both coach and quarterback.
Maye played well enough to win, just not well enough to carry his team to victory. Understandable for a rookie, but not nearly enough for another “A” grade.
Critical areas
Turnovers: Patriots 0, Jaguars 0
Explosive play rate: Patriots 5.5%, Jaguars 6.8%
Success rate: Patriots 38.9%, Jaguars 57.6%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-2, Jaguars 3-5
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 19%, Jaguars 38%
A statistical waxing that was worse than these numbers paint.
The Patriots didn’t generate an explosive play until the fourth quarter. They had a success rate of 34% before their final drive in garbage time. They produced a single “successful” play over the second and third quarters combined.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars rode them up and down the field, calling 16 runs over two separate drives in that second half to kill the clock and the game. In fact, Jacksonville posted the highest success rate the Patriots defense has allowed all season, a perfect reflection of how they controlled play. Had the Jaguars squeezed points out of their fourth-quarter drive that ended with a fourth-down stop and turnover on downs, this would have become the rout it should have been.
Offense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 70% of snaps in 11 personnel, 30% snaps in 12 personnel.
Personnel production: 35.8% success rate in 11 personnel, 40% success rate in 12 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 61% pass (35% success rate), 39% run (0% success rate)
Play-action rate: 19%
Motion. Movement throws. A play-action overdose.
Credit to Alex Van Pelt for his opening script that set up the Patriots’ first opening-drive touchdown of the season. They would have made a movie out of that.
The rest? A curious mess.
After calling play-action passes on four of Maye’s first seven dropbacks to exploit Jacksonville’s weakness against the play fake, Van Pelt called just four play-action passes the rest of the game. He similarly abandoned plays with motion at the snap that unlocked a free release for DeMario Douglas on the Pats’ first third-down conversion. And after calling 10 passes on that 12-play touchdown drive, he went run-heavy to start other possessions, which played right into Jacksonville’s hands.
The Pats had a single first-down run longer than three yards, which routinely put them behind the chains. The Jags hit them with run blitzes and stunts to create penetration. It was as if Jacksonville knew when Van Pelt wanted to call runs, and when he had dialed up play-action, though there was no obvious tendency by formation, quarterback alignment or personnel grouping.
The Pats dearly missed Douglas, their walking man-coverage beater who sat most of the last three quarters due to illness. After the opening drive, the offense completed one pass versus man-to-man coverage. Like most of Van Pelt’s downfield pass designs, it was an isolated route; one Kayshon Boutte ran for a 31-yard catch in the fourth quarter.
Player stats
Broken tackles: RB JaMycal Hasty 5, TE Austin Hooper 2, Rhamondre Stevenson 1, QB Draye Maye 1
Pressure allowed: RG Sidy Sow 4 (4 hurries), LG Michael Jordan 3 (QB hit, 2 hurries), Team 3 (sack, 2 hurries), RT Mike Onwenu 2 (sack, hurry), LT Demontrey Jacobs 2 (2 hurries), RB Layden Robinson (hurry), QB Drake Maye (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Jordan 2, Sow, Team
Drops: None
Notes
- The Jaguars ripped the “run” out of the Patriots’ run-first identity, controlling the line of scrimmage with numbers and greater physicality. For a second straight week, Drake Maye set the team high for rushing yards all off scrambles.
- The Patriots posted an 8.3% success rate when running the ball, and gained 20 yards on 13 hand-offs. Woof.
- Offensive guards Michael Jordan and Sidy Sow were the chief culprits, getting knocked back at the line of scrimmage more often than their teammates did. It was a rare down game for Jordan, while Sow replaced rookie Layden Robinson after Robinson hurt his ankle in the first quarter.
- Right tackle Mike Onwenu continues to underwhelm after inking a $57 million contract this offseason. He gave up a sack, false-started and couldn’t create enough room on weakside runs the Patriots like running behind him to create favorable matchups.
- That all said, JaMycal Hasty’s 5-to-1 edge in broken tackles compared to Rhamondre Stevenson captured how well the running backs played compared to one another. Hasty ran more decisively and created more as a pass-catcher than Stevenson, who was coming off a foot injury.
- In the passing game, Maye scared the Jaguars out of an early blitz plan. After he hit Hasty for a 16-yard touchdown to beat pressure, the Jags called three blitzes the rest of the day against Patriots dropbacks.
- One problem: Maye couldn’t strike deep until it was too late. Like most opponents, Jacksonville had the Patriots’ play-action shots covered deep, starting with the first play of the game. That forced them to steadily drive the field, something they’ve struggled to do all season.
- Second-round rookie receiver Ja’Lynn Polk continues to spiral. He’s caught two of his last 13 targets and dropped three others. He was 0-for-3 on targets Sunday, including two that hit him in the hands.
- Polk must fight better through contact and tight coverage to come up with those types of catches. He again saw a starter’s playing time, which Van Pelt may need to temporarily reconsider given his complete lack of production.
- Fighting tight coverage was an issue for every receiver except DeMario Douglas. Again, it boggles the mind that Douglas, the Patriots’ best wideout, isn’t featured more. Polk, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn and Kayshon Boutte — save for one big play a game — aren’t pulling away from anyone.
- Hats off to Hunter Henry. He kept the passing game afloat with big catches in critical spots. He’s playing tough, focused football.
Defense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 49% three-corner nickel package, 22% three-safety nickel, 22% base, 7% dime.****
Coverage breakdown: 76% zone, 24% man
Blitz rate: 23.8%
Blitz efficacy: 60% offensive success rate and 9.0 yards per play allowed
The Patriots opened in a 5-1 front with three defensive tackles, a clear effort to plug the holes in their run defense via bigger bodies. It didn’t work.
The Pats got walloped regardless of the personnel they fielded. Their most common grouping, three-corner nickel, didn’t slow the Jaguars’ pass game, either. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence had all day to throw, a trade-off defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington made when he decided on a from a zone-heavy game plan with minimal blitzing.
Most of the Patriots’ blitzes seemed inspired by field location, rather than down-and-distance. Lawrence and the Jags beat most of them, though early on Covington baited them into a third-down screen pass designed to beat anticipated pressure. His biggest problem: Jacksonville rarely got to third down.
No matter how Covington rearranged the front or changed up personnel, the Pats got abused up front. No defense can win like that, let alone game plan around it.
Player stats
Pressure: DL Keion White (hurry), Daniel Ekuale (hurry), DB Marcus Jones (hurry), Team
Run stuffs: DL Jaquelin Roy
Pass deflections: None
Missed tackles: LB Jahlani Tavai 2, DT Davon Godchaux, DL Deatrich Wise, S Marte Mapu, OLB Joshua Uche, LB Christian Elliss, LB Raekwon McMillan, DL Jaquelin Roy, DB Marcus Jones
Notes
- No sacks. No quarterback hits. No pass deflections. Soft play all around.
- The Patriots were flat-out dominated up front against run and pass. Four total pressures, including just two off a four-man rush, is inexcusable.
- Defensive tackle Davon Godchaux had been the lone bright spot for the run defense, which has now allowed 167 yards per game since Week 2. Not Sunday.
- Godchaux, like fellow defensive tackles Daniel Ekuale, Eric Johnson (a waiver claim) and Jaquelin Roy (a recent street free agent), got erased 1-on-1 on multiple occasions. A few D-linemen, including Godchaux and Deatrich Wise, even lost heads-up versus a Jaguars tight end
- Jacksonville averaged 5.9 yards per carry rushing between their center and left tackle, per Pro Football Focus; a reflection of the defensive tackles’ failures and one of the worst linebacker performances I have ever studied.
- Jahlani Tavai missed two tackles, bit hard on play-action that opened up early Jaguars completions and fired himself out of plays. Newly minted starter Christian Elliss was hardly felt, except after Jacksonville running back Tank Bigsby (2.54 yards per carry after contact) had broken through.
- Gap discipline and missed run fits were at the heart of the Patriots’ issues. These are fundamentals once taken for granted with this defense, even by Mayo who declared after Week 1 the Pats would “always have a great run defense.”
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- Former starting linebacker Raekwon McMillan and edge rusher Joshua Uche were each limited to 11 defensive snaps, a sign they were among the players Mayo didn’t deem dependable anymore after the Houston lost.
- Christian Gonzalez, typically the most dependable member of the Patriots’ secondary, got beat for three catches, all courtesy of Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Gonzalez timed his rip through Thomas’ arms almost perfectly on the 58-yard bomb he allowed in the first half, but got beat by a perfect throw and couldn’t jar it loose.
- On Jacksonville’s first touchdown, Marcus Jones appeared at fault on a coverage bust playing a “box coverage” along the goal line against a bunch set. All three other defenders nearest Jones formed a zone box, while Jones followed the receiver into the flat, giving a free release over the middle to Thomas.
- Good game for veteran cornerback Jonathan Jones, who supposedly gave a fiery address to the team in the post-game locker room. As well he should. This was an embarrassment.
Special teams
- Can’t have it. Jacksonville’s 96-yard punt return touchdown near the end of the first half broke the game open and pulled it entirely out of the Patriots’ hands.
- The Patriots may have been surprised that return man Parker Washington took the ball from his own 4-yard line, but the distance Bryce Barginer booted it gave him plenty of runway. A guess here: Baringer out-kicked his coverage, booming that punt 76 yards in the air.
- Once the Jags neutralized Brenden Schooler with two separate players, no one else came close to tackling Washington. The other gunner, rookie corner Marcellas Dial Jr., was beaten downfield by four other teammates.
- Otherwise, Baringer dropped all three of his other punts inside Jacksonville’s 20-yard line, and the Pats and Jags both started with an average field position of their own 30-yard line.
Studs
TE Hunter Henry
Henry’s 92 receiving yards marked the fourth-highest single-game total of his career. He secured multiple big catches and showed what playing tough looks like in a losing effort.
Duds
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
His first two targets hit him in the hands and resulted in incompletions anyway. Polk slipped on his third, then left the game with a reported head injury.
Run defense
Abysmal.
Run-blocking
Drake Maye led the Patriots in rushing by scrambling — again. The backs need more room up front.
Pass rush
Four pressures, all of them hurries. Ineffective and inexcusable.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.
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