Welcome to the Election 2024 Edition of the Old North State Report. This is designed to provide you with insight into the upcoming 2024 General Election, including the Presidential election, U.S. Congressional elections, and North Carolina statewide elections.
Upcoming Notable Dates [1]
Nov. 2:
- In-person early voting ends.
Nov. 5:
- General Election Day.
- Absentee ballot return deadline (7:30 p.m.).
Most races should have definitive results on election night, but we expect to see some very tight races which may push results out days or even weeks. For example, in 2020 incumbent Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley did not concede to current Chief Justice Paul Newby (who won the statewide election by only 401 votes) until Dec. 12.[2] Incumbent Governor Pat McCrory did not concede until Dec. 5 after his 2016 loss to current Governor Roy Cooper.[3] All that to say, buckle up for what could be a prolonged post-election period of recounts and even litigation before we know who the winner will be in some of the races that are shaping up to be photo-finishes.
North Carolina General Assembly
Will Republicans Hold the Supermajority?
All 120 House seats and all 50 Senate seats are on the ballot. The North Carolina General Assembly was a majority-Democrat legislature from 1898 to 2010 (aside from a 4-year period from 1994-1998 when Republicans controlled the NC House). Since that time, the General Assembly has been majority-Republican, and there is currently a thread-bare Republican supermajority allowing the legislature to override gubernatorial vetoes.
Senate Republicans will need to keep 30 seats to hold a supermajority. According to the Civitas Partisan Index[4] there are 19 “safe Republican” seats, 4 “likely Republican” seats, 5 “lean Republican” seats, and 5 “toss-up” seats. To keep a supermajority, Republicans will need to win all the safe, likely, and lean Republican seats and 2 of the 5 toss-up seats.
On the House side, Republicans will need 72 of the 120 seats to keep the supermajority. According to the Civitas Partisan Index, there are 39 “safe Republican” seats, 13 “likely Republican” seats, and 17 “lean Republican” seats. There are also 3 “toss-up” seats. Republicans would need to win all of these seats to retain a supermajority in the House.
Even if Republicans fail to keep the supermajority, it is highly unlikely that the Democrats would be able to flip either the House or the Senate, so the Republican majorities are likely to continue in both chambers.
In terms of North Carolina General Assembly leadership, Phil Berger (R-District 26) is in an R+10 seat and almost certain to be chosen by the Senate Republican Caucus to continue to serve as the President Pro Tem. Current Rules Chairman Senator Bill Rabon (R-District 8) and current Majority Leader Senator Paul Newton (R-District 34) are in R+7 and R+5 seats respectively. Thus, Senate leadership seems stable. A notable exception is that one of the three Appropriations Chairs, Michael Lee (R-District 7) is in an R+2 “lean Republican” seat, so if there is low Republican turnout in the Wilmington area he could lose his seat.
Though the House isn’t in danger of flipping from Republican to Democrat, there will be a change in leadership among the Republicans. Current Speaker Tim Moore (R-District 111) will no longer be a state lawmaker because he is running for United States Congress. Prominent leaders in the North Carolina House pledged their support for current House Rules Chairman Rep. Destin Hall (R-District 87), who occupies an R+22 seat, to be the next Speaker. John Bell (R-District 10) is in an R+6 seat and will likely be the next Rules Chairman.[5] The two House Senior Appropriations Chairs, Dean Arp (R-District 69) who occupies an R+13 seat and Donny Lambeth (R-District 75) who holds an R+6 seat should both be back as House budget writers next term.
Bottom line, going out on a limb, there is a decent chance that the Republicans will hold a supermajority in the North Carolina General Assembly based on early voting numbers that we’re seeing.
North Carolina Governor
Scandal-plagued Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson is unlikely to overcome consistently strong poll numbers from current Attorney General Josh Stein. Over the past month, polls have shown Stein ahead ranging from +7 to +22[6] with an average of +13.8 from all polls from Oct. 10 to Oct. 22.[7] Thus, we anticipate Stein will be the next governor, and expect a relatively smooth transition from the Cooper administration.
Other North Carolina State Races
There aren’t many publicly available polls for statewide Judicial Races or North Carolina Council of State races other than Governor. However, the Carolina Journal recently reported on a Cygnal poll[8] of 600 likely North Carolina likely voters conducted between Oct. 12-14, with results as follows[9]:
Lt. Governor
- State Sen. Rachel Hunt (D) leads Hal Weatherman (R) 43.3% to 40.8%.
Attorney General
- US Congressman Jeff Jackson (D) leads US Congressman Dan Bishop (R) 46.1% to 43.3%.
Secretary of State
- Elaine Marshall (D – Incumbent) leads Chad Brown 45.1 to 42.9.
State Treasurer
- Brad Briner (R) leads Wesley Harris (D) 43.4% to 41.9%.
State Auditor
- Dave Boliek (R) leads Jessica Holmes (D) 40.4% to 40.1%.
Commissioner of Agriculture
- Steve Troxler (R – Incumbent) leads Sarah Taber (D) 45.3% to 38.4%.
Commissioner of Insurance
- Mike Causey (R – Incumbent) leads Natasha Marcus (D) 44.2% to 41%.
Commissioner of Labor
- Luke Farley (R) leads Braxton Winston (D) 43.5% to 41.7%.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
- Mo Green (D) leads Michelle Morrow (R) 45.7% to 43.2%.
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice
- Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin (R) leads Justice Allison Riggs (D – Incumbent) 44.7% to 43.3%.
It is important to note that aside from the Governor and Commissioner of Agriculture, none of the statewide races are outside the poll’s +/-3.99% margin of error, which is why turnout will be particularly important this cycle. Given the early voting numbers we’ve seen, we anticipate more of the statewide races breaking Republican than Democrat.
United States Senate and Congress
Neither Senator Thom Tillis nor Senator Ted Budd is on the ballot this cycle. Nationally, the fivethirtyeight.com Election Forecaster simulation shows Republicans winning control of the US Senate 88 times out of 100.[10]
North Carolina voters will elect 14 congressmen to serve in the U.S. House on Nov. 5. The makeup of the North Carolina delegation will be significantly different than the current delegation made up of seven (7) Republicans and seven (7) Democrats. The election will feature nine (9) incumbents running for their current seat and five (5) open-seat races. A breakdown of these races and a consensus partisan rating of each race follows:
| DISTRICT | CANDIDATES | CONSENSUS RACE RATING [11] |
| 1 |
(i) Don Davis (D) Laurie Buckhout (R) Tom Bailey (L) |
Toss-Up |
| 2 |
(i) Deborah Ross (D) Alan Swain (R) Michael Dublin (G) |
Solid Democrat |
| 3 |
(i) Greg Murphy (D) Gheorghe Cormos (L) |
Solid Republican |
| 4 |
(i) Valerie Foushee (D) Eric Blankenburg (R) Guy Meilleur (L) |
Solid Democrat |
| 5 |
(i) Virginia Foxx (R) Chuck Hubbard (D) |
Solid Republican |
| 6 |
Addison McDowell (R) Kevin Hayes (C) |
Solid Republican |
| 7 |
(i) David Rouzer (R) Marland Pridgen (D) |
Solid Republican |
| 8 |
Justin Dues (D) Mark Harris (R) |
Solid Republican |
| 9 |
(i) Richard Hudson (R) Nigel Bristow (D) |
Solid Republican |
| 10 |
Ralph Scott Jr. (D) Pat Harrigan (R) |
Solid Republican |
| 11 |
(i) Chuck Edwards (R) Caleb Rudow (D) |
Solid Republican |
| 12 |
Alma Adams (D) Addul Ali (R) |
Solid Democrat |
| 13 |
Frank Pierce (D) Brad Knott (R) |
Lean Republican |
| 14 |
Pamela Genant (D) Timothy K. Moore (R) |
Lean Republican |
Nationally, the fivethirtyeight.com Election Forecaster simulation shows Republicans winning control of the US House of Representatives 52 times out of 100.[12] The only Congressional race that is really close in North Carolina is District 1 between incumbent Don Davis (D) and challenger Laurie Buckhout (R). The Hill gives Don Davis a 76% chance of winning that race[13] and available polling data shows Davis up between 6 and 11 points from September 24 through October 13.[14] However, as veteran strategist Mike Rusher has pointed out, the early voting turnout so far heavily favors Buckhout.[15] Likewise, 270towin.com lists the Davis/Buckhout race as a “toss up.” So, this will be a race to watch closely.
United States President
The only election prediction I’ll make is that “Trump v. Harris” will not only be the unofficial title of the election, but the official title of a lawsuit following the election. Although the election is too close to call, I would rather be Trump than Harris right now in terms of the probability of winning. Here is some information we’re looking at:
1. The 2024 Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map:
- North Carolina: Trump +0.7
- Pennsylvania: Trump +1.0
- Georgia: Trump +2.4
- Arizona: Trump +2.5
- Wisconsin: Harris +0.2
- Michigan: Harris +0.5
- Nevada: Trump +0.5
2. Fivethirtyeight.com has an election forecaster that has run 1,000 simulations in which Trump has won 506, Harris has won 491 and there was no winner 3 times.[16]
3. Non-Traditional data points:
- Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, allows traders to bet on the outcome of future events. The market odds represent the near real-time probability of an event taking place as traders constantly react to the market. Currently, Polymarket places a 66.4% chance of Trump winning.[17] As Forbes reports, other prominent betting sites show the odds similarly in Trump’s favor, and even shares in Trump Media and the parent company for Trump’s Truth Social are up 86% in October.[18]
- Additionally, veteran strategists Chris Lacavita and Mike Rusher are reporting that the Harris campaign may have pulled ads from North Carolina markets to redeploy that funding in other battleground states, potentially signaling that the Harris campaign’s internal numbers are showing signs of defeat in North Carolina.
North Carolina Early Voting Tallies
(Portions of this segment were contributed by Paul Shumaker, who has served as a strategist and advisor to Senator Thom Tillis, former Senator Richard Burr, Chief Justice Paul Newby, and numerous United States Congressman and North Carolina General Assembly members. Shumaker is the President and Founder of Capitol Communications, Inc., specializing in strategic planning, public opinion research and media development for political, corporate, and issue clients.)
As of Oct. 29, 3,368,358 voters have cast ballots in person or by absentee, representing more than 43% of all registered voters. While media outlets have focused on high early voting turnout compared to 2020 and 2016, overall voter turnout is actually down compared to 2020 turnout by almost 300,000 votes. This is significant given North Carolina has 428,534 more registered voters in 2024 than in 2020.
Before diving into the turnout statistics, here are a couple of key points for all to remember. First, both major Parties were a smaller portion of the overall voting population in 2024 compared to 2020. Since November 2020, Democratic registration has declined by 186,547 voters, while Republicans gained 94,006 voters. However, Unaffiliated registration grew by 495,787.
Second, there is less crossover voting between Republicans and Democrats. As both Parties have gotten smaller, their ticket splitters have left the Party. In the recent Oct. 29 WRAL TV poll, Democrats were voting for Harris 92% to only 5% for Trump. Republicans were 94% for Trump and 4% for Harris. Of all the candidates running statewide in partisan elections, Josh Stein is the only candidate receiving double-digit crossover voting, averaging around 12% of registered Republicans.
448,661 absentee ballots were requested in 2024 compared to 649,236 in 2020. This difference could be attributable to COVID which was taking place in 2020.
Currently, Republican turnout is outpacing Democratic and Unaffiliated turnout. Of all the ballots cast to date, 34.10% are registered Republicans, 32.84% are Democrats, and 32.45% are Unaffiliated. In past elections, Democratic voter turnout has outpaced Republican turnout. However, some of the Democratic turnouts in the past were ticket-splitting Democrats. As outlined above, there is little ticket-splitting in 2024. However, the Republican advantage we are seeing in 2024 early voting is unprecedented. Republicans, who typically outpace Democrats on election day, have so far outvoted Democrats by 42,320 votes in early voting. This is driven by a combination of increased Republican turnout and decrease in Democrat turnout.
Now for the Unaffiliated voter. First, Trump and Harris have both been splitting the Unaffiliated voters in public polling. In some polls, Harris is averaging a 5-point advantage, while in other surveys, Trump is averaging a 5-point advantage. All of this means is that both candidates are splitting the Unaffiliated vote.
There will be two final factors that determine which candidate wins North Carolina. The first: which candidate does a better job of turning out their base? For now, it appears to be an advantage to Trump. The second: what will the final makeup of the unaffiliated voter turnout be? The more urban/suburban Unaffiliated voters turnout, the better it will be for Harris. The more rural unaffiliated voters turn out, the more advantage it has for Trump. Unaffiliated voters are currently underperforming. They represent the only group of double-digit undecided voters at this point. If the undecided voters turnout and break for Harris, the Presidential election will be very close in North Carolina. If they stay home, then it is an advantage to Trump.
Conclusion
We hope this report provided some useful information and insight. We’ll continue to update you with any late-breaking developments and will be sure to provide you with another deep dive after the election results are in.
This post was originally published on here
