‘All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.’
Replace ‘animals’ with ‘votes’ and this quote from George Orwell’s Animal Farm becomes quite apt during US election season. Especially given how the book’s a satire about the rank hypocrisy of governments that claim to be equal and fair but hand inordinate power and privileges over to an undeserving few.
Surely all votes are of equal value in an election though, right? And, in a way, they are. But in another, slightly more accurate and realistic way, they absolutely aren’t. Not when swing states form such an inescapably integral part of the democratic process, anyway. Welcome to American politicking.
What exactly are ‘swing states’?
‘Swing states’, also known by the far cooler name of ‘battleground states’, are those of the 50 United States where both major political parties have a genuine chance of winning over the majority of voters in a presidential election.
Unlike solidly Democratic or Republican states, which almost always lean toward one party or the other, swing states can – and very often do – shift (or ‘swing’ – see? Clever, eh…?) between elections, making them highly unpredictable.
It’s their sheer uncertainty that gives them their significance and outsized importance. Given that their electoral votes can decide the overall outcome of the election and determine who gets to enjoy all 55,000 sq. ft. of The White House completely rent-free for four years.
Candidates tend to focus a great deal of their attention on these particular states, tailoring almost their entire presidential campaigns specifically to win over the undecided or persuadable voters living in them. Essentially, swing states are where the real election happens. Winning them tends to be the key to securing the presidency.
Why swing states matter in US presidential elections
Individual votes carry more weight in swing states because of their potential impact. That wouldn’t be the case were the outcome of a US presidential election decided by a simple nationwide count. But it isn’t. America uses ‘The Electoral College’ system to determine who gets to call themselves POTUS.
Here’s where it gets a bit complicated… Each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on that particular state’s representation in Congress (which is the number of senators it has plus the number of house members). In total there are 538 electoral votes which have to be divvied up across the 50 states. A candidate needs 270 votes to win.
Most states employ something of a ‘winner-takes-all’ approach to the system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in a state gets all of its electoral votes. Running it this way really ramps up the importance of swing states, where the most subtle of voting shifts can decide the outcome and mean significant electoral votes going one way or the other.
And you thought determining the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest was convoluted.
So which of the states are considered as swingers?
Well, none of them. No one uses that term to describe swing states. Those being thought of as important swing states can vary over time, depending on voting patterns and demographics.
This time, there are seven states that both the Democrats and Republicans have agreed meet the criteria for being swingers – sorry, swing states. They are: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and, of course, Pennsylvania.
Who is leading the polls in the 2024 swing states?
Depending on which polls you look at, the leading candidate can vary. However, what is consistent across the polls is that neither Trump nor Harris has a lead of more than a couple of percentage points over the other.
According to opinion poll analysis website 538, this is the current state of the presidential race in each of the swing states:
- Trump is leading in Nevada by 0.3%
- Trump is leading in Arizona by 2.4%
- Trump is leading in Georgia by 1.8%
- Trump is leading in North Carolina by 1.4%
- Harris is leading in Michigan by 0.8%
- Harris is leading in Wisconsin by 0.6%
- Trump is leading in Pennsylvania by 0.7%
How do swing states influence campaigns?
US presidential candidates heavily target swing states, directing large swathes of their time, money and messaging to win over undecided voters living in them. Since these states can swing either way, candidates visit swing states far more often than non-swing states and adjust their platforms to appeal to key voter demographics within them. The campaigns pour untold resources into rallies, ads and outreach tailored to specific local issues.
Actually, it’s not all that ‘untold’. Pennsylvania remains a primary focus due to its historical significance in determining election outcomes (Pennsylvania’s managed to pick the winner in each of the last four elections and has a hit rate of syncing up with 10 of the last 12).
According to figures provided by US news site Axios, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have spent a total of $211 million on campaign fees in The Keystone State alone during this campaign. That’s more than twice as much as they are spending on other swing state contests.
The home of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Gettysburg is critical to both camps. Win the Pennsylvania vote, live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s as simple as that.
Are swing states controversial?
Swing states do seem to wield unreasonable power in American elections, what with the Electoral College prioritising them so much over solidly partisan states. It’s almost as if they’re rewarded for being collectively on the fence. Normally, the only reward you get for sitting there is a telling off from a farmer or splinter in your backside.
The way things are set up, campaigns direct disproportionate attention and resources toward a few key battlegrounds, often leaving voters in reliably blue or red states feeling overlooked and ignored. That’s why you’ll always hear the call for reform or the Electoral College and abolition of swing states. In order to give all voters equal influence, regardless of where they live.
But it never changes. And that tells you one thing… The Powers That Be are happy enough with how it works. Especially when their side benefits from it.
What can the swing states tell us about what’s going to happen this year?
Everything… Something… Maybe even nothing. Take your pick!
The race is so incredibly tight in 2024 that absolutely no polls or experts can offer anything but speculation. We’ve seen any number of swing states sway one way or the other down the years. It’s all but impossible to know what way they’ll go this time out.
All we know for certain is that the swing states will swing it. One way or the other.
This article was first published on October 22, 2024.
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