Welcome to the Monitor’s live Election Day updates. Throughout the day, we will be providing short takes on how voting is going, who’s turning out and why, and ultimately, who are the winners and losers. Control of the White House, the U.S. House, and Senate hangs in the balance. We’re also tracking statewide ballot measures – on abortion rights, immigration, and marijuana, among others. Monitor reporters have fanned out to the key battleground states, and will provide regular updates, as will our anchors in Washington and Los Angeles. In an election like no other in American history, the stakes could not be higher. Please check back regularly for updates!
9:45 a.m. ET: Voting is underway in Arizona
Good morning from the Southwest. Voter centers opened at 6 a.m. local time in Arizona’s Maricopa County, one of the most populous counties in the country. The more than 2.5 million registered voters here make up over half of this swing state’s voter base.
Maricopa became a hotbed for discredited election conspiracies in 2020. Election officials have since shored up security, transparency, and new equipment. They’re also appealing to voters for patience, saying factors like a longer than usual two-page ballot and a new change in state law on election tasks are expected to cause delays.
“We ask you to be patient,” said Zach Schira, assistant county manager for elections and external affairs, at a Monday press conference. “Let us do our job, and we will be transparent about what we have done and what we have left to do.”
Meanwhile, Stephen Richer, the county recorder, is bracing for post-election litigation, given ongoing scrutiny of the battleground state.
Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, the first Democrat to do so since 1996. Yet President Biden clinched victory by less than 1 percentage point – 10,457 votes. Beyond the White House race, Arizonans will also get to vote their conscience on abortion access and illegal immigration.
– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Tempe, Arizona
08:30 a.m. ET: Is political polling broken?
It’s Election Day, and public polls show the presidential race is a dead heat. That’s true nationally and in the key battleground states.
In fact, polling experts say, this is shaping up to be one of the closest presidential contests in American history.
Or is it? After all, the pollsters got 2016 wrong. And they were off by even more in 2020 – underestimating the strength of Donald Trump both times. This cycle, the polling industry has made important changes in how it operates.
To get people to respond, and to get a better sample, surveys are increasingly done by text and mail – yes, snail mail – in addition to phone, according to polling expert Nate Cohn of The New York Times.
Pollsters have also changed how they “weight” their data. That is, after getting their sample, they have a better idea of how to analyze what voters have told them, based on demographics, past voting behavior, and 2020 turnout. This excellent article by Mr. Cohn lays out how pollsters have adapted.
Public confidence in polling took a major hit after 2016 and 2020. That matters, because it affects trust in election results – and in government.
“Independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society,” write experts from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.
Even if pollsters can’t tell us who will win an election, they can provide a sense of what Americans are thinking.
When the six residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast the first votes of Election Day just after midnight, it was tied 3-3, between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. Though not predictive, that result perfectly captures voter sentiment in 2024.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
08:15 a.m. ET: Georgia election worker arrested for fake bomb threat
Federal law enforcement arrested a 20-something Georgia poll worker on Monday for making a bomb threat against a polling place. The false threat comes amid heightened tensions and unprecedented security preparations at polling places around the United States on Election Day 2024.
After allegedly getting into a verbal altercation with a voter, on Oct. 16 Nicholas Wimbish of Milledgeville wrote a letter referencing threats at the polls by “young men” – a key constituency for Donald Trump’s reelection effort. “PS boom toy in early vote place, cigar burning, be safe,” a hand-scrawled ending to the letter noted.
The Election Threats Taskforce, which was initiated by the Department of Justice in 2021 to protect poll workers, arrested Mr. Wimbish Monday. He could face up to 25 years in prison if found guilty on several charges related to the letter.
– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Atlanta
08:10 a.m. ET: Which bellwether House districts should you keep an eye on?
Between the two of them, California and New York have more than enough swing congressional districts to determine which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives. But don’t look to either state for early clues. New York polls close relatively late, at 9 p.m. And because of the heavy volume of mail-in balloting in California, it might take days or even weeks to call the winners in the Golden State’s tight races. In 2022, the Associated Press didn’t call the last race there until Dec. 2.
For an early barometer, watch Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. and counting is “pretty fast,” suggests Jacob Smith, assistant professor of political science at Fordham University in New York. “Virginia’s second district is a really interesting one I see that goes back and forth,” he says – switching between parties five times since 2000. This suburban district is near the country’s largest Naval station, and two women with naval backgrounds are battling it out. Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal, who is leaning into reproductive rights, is challenging GOP Rep. Jennifer Kiggins, a freshman Republican who is running on kitchen-table issues.
Also keep an eye on VA-7, the open seat vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor. The seat is rated as a “toss up” by the independent Cook Political Report.
– Francine Kiefer, staff writer, reporting from Pasadena, California
08:00 a.m. ET: What we can glean from 2024 early voting
In a campaign marked by high interest – and anxiety – millions of Americans cast their ballots before Election Day. When the polls opened Tuesday morning, almost 83 million people had already voted, either in-person or by mail or via drop-box. That’s more than half the 158.4 million people who voted in 2020.
The all-time record for early voting was in 2020, during the pandemic, when 101 million people voted early. But this year’s early vote is still noteworthy. In states that register voters by party, Republicans accounted for 36% of the votes cast while Democrats accounted for 38%, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
That doesn’t necessarily indicate which candidate those people voted for. But it might be good news for former President Donald Trump. In 2020, only 30% of early voters were Republican, compared with 45% who were Democrats – though that year Mr. Trump had discouraged Republicans from voting early.
This year’s early vote also features a gender gap. In the states that report gender data for votes cast, 54% of early votes have been by women versus 44% by men. That may be good news for the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who fares far better in polls among women than among men.
The final NBC News poll of the race found that women supported Vice President Harris over Mr. Trump by a 16-point margin, 57-41%. Men backed Mr. Trump by 18 percentage points (58-40%).
The massive gender gap may in part reflect this cycle’s focus on abortion rights, following the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade. Another factor could be the Trump campaign’s emphasis on hypermasculinity in its pitch to voters.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
This post was originally published on here
