How Harris, Trump handle foreign affairs could play in the 2024 election: ANALYSIS

As American voters head to the polls, the direction of the country, not the world, is likely to drive their decision.

But there’s a reason the president of the United States is often referred to as the leader of the free world. The victor will play a monumental role in shaping consequential international dynamics –but the uncertainty swirling around the election is already having an impact on global issues.

Foreign affairs also have the potential to motivate voters in both overt and subtle ways, and in a race as tight as the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, these issues may tip the scale.

ABC News spoke to analyst as well as current and former officials to understand what impact the election is having on the world — and how the world is affecting the election.

An issue that doesn’t hold Americans’ attention — until it does

Even as protests over Israel’s war in Gaza swell on American city streets, and even as Ukrainian flags are unfurled from porches in solidarity with the country’s efforts to fend of Russia’s invasion, very few Americans say these issues are a major factor in their choice for president.

In fact, just 2% of likely voters this election cycle say that foreign policy is the most important issue to them, ranking it dead last out of seven topics presented to them in a poll conducted by CNN. (The economy came in first, with 41% of respondents saying it was their top priority.)

Kori Schake, a senior fellow and the director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, says that while international issues aren’t usually on the top of voters’ minds, they test political leaders in profound ways and have the ability to immovably shape the public’s judgment.

“You can actually see it in the polling of support for President Biden, that it dropped substantially after the disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan. It really never recovered,” she said.

Schake argues that the powerful images of desperate Afghans chasing after U.S. aircraft, clinging to the wings in the harried evacuation brought the so-called “Forgotten War” into focus and “really changed public attitude.”

“President Biden and his administration billed themselves as a safe pair of hands–you’re not going to have the recklessness of the Trump administration,” she said, adding that the exit “really shattered that frame of reference.”

Schake also says that matters like the Israel-Hamas war, China’s economic rise and Russian aggression that have become topics of kitchen table conversation may help voters draw contrasts between the candidates.

But despite the lengthy speeches and political platforms, the rhetoric of the campaign trail doesn’t lend itself to nuanced explanations on their different approaches to these matters.

“Americans tend not to like complicated answers on foreign policy,” Schake said. “If you have too many objectives and if they’re cutting against each other, it feels like you can’t succeed.”

Schake argues that Biden and Harris are more likely to get tangled in these weeds. For example, she says their talking points on Ukraine are likely to include vows to give the country all the help it needs — but also a substantial list of caveats intended to avoid escalation with Moscow.

“It sounds too complicated, too hard,” Schake says.

Meanwhile, Trump takes a more facile approach—frequently claiming he would be able to resolve the conflict in a matter of hours.

“President Trump talks about things on the other end of the spectrum as so simple as to be simplistic. That’s a lot more attractive to most American voters because it’s not too complicated,” Schake said, adding however that the reality “often has consequences that voters won’t like.”

A world in waiting

While the outcome of the election will determine who sits behind the Resolute desk, the election itself is already impacting international affairs as the Biden White House enters its lame duck period.

U.S. officials acknowledge privately that the administration’s response to the developments in the Middle East have been constrained in recent weeks, as it has sought to avoid fresh rebuke over its handling of the Israeli war in Gaza–a topic that has deeply divided Democrats and could hurt Harris at the polls.

Many believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is biding his time, too.

“Some argue that Netanyahu is seeking to wait out Biden, in hopes that a Trump presidency would create fewer pressures for concessions to Palestinian national aspirations. Some even charge that Netanyahu is doing what he can to create that outcome,” said Jon B. Alterman, a senior vice president of the Center for Strategic & International Studies and a former State Department official.

Iran is also keeping a close eye on the election, Alterman says, and is poised to become a pressing issue for the next commander-in-chief in the immediate aftermath of the inauguration.

“The new administration will need to establish its approach to Iran in the first weeks of the presidency, in part because Iran is likely to test the new president,” he said.

Steven Blockmans, an associate research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, says European handwringing over the U.S. election is bound to intensify if Trump wins—but that a Harris victory also comes with challenges for the continent.

“Europe has been slow to Trump-proof itself and will struggle to respond collectively to new security challenges, thus leaving the continent more vulnerable to malevolent actors,” he said.

“A Europe-friendly President Harris would enter office as fatigue with the three-year old war in Ukraine runs high and the likelihood of shaky ceasefire deals increases,” Blockmans continued. “Moreover, Harris’s relative lack of foreign policy experience would likely be tested by China and Russia in other theaters, thus leaving Europe to compete for attention.”

Foreign adversaries, internal divides

Experts say that although the U.S. electoral process itself is safeguarded from foreign actors, influence campaigns run by China, Iran and Russia are underway — and likely to intensify after the polls close.

According to an update from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released last month, the intelligence community “expects foreign influence actors to continue their campaigns by calling into question the validity of the election’s results.”

“Foreign actors are almost certainly considering the possibility of another contested presidential election,” the update continues. “They will likely take advantage of such an opportunity to use similar tactics in a post-election period to undermine trust in the integrity of the election, election processes, and further exacerbate divisions among Americans.”

The intelligence community has already flagged fake videos by foreign actors, including one showing men who claim to be Haitian and to have voted in Georgia — a video produced by the Russians, a joint statement of U.S. intelligence agencies said.

Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Jenn Easterly, told ABC News’ Chief Justice Correspondent Pierre Thomas last week, that all of the U.S.’s adversaries “want just two things.”

“They want to undermine American confidence in our elections and trust in democracy, and they want to stoke partisan discord. They want to pit Americans against each other, and they are looking for any opportunities to create rage, and we know that enragement equals engagement,” the cyber chief said.

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