President-elect Donald Trump secured victory in the 2024 presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris and sweeping all five swing states counted thus far. Political science experts at NC State weighed in on the factors that contributed to Trump’s success and the implications for American politics.
Steven Greene and Andrew Taylor, professors of political science, said economic factors and dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration were key drivers of Trump’s victory in a post-election forum held at Winston Hall on Wednesday.
“People are very dissatisfied with the state of the economy,” Greene said. “People are very dissatisfied with the incumbent president, and that is a recipe for the incumbent president’s party to lose.”
Greene said this trend has been seen not only in the United States but also around the world.
Elizabeth Lane, assistant professor of political science, said while the economic situation has improved in the United States, voters’ perceptions didn’t reflect that.
“When you look at a lot of economic charts with regard to inflation for example, every single developed country … has felt huge effects from inflation,” Lane said. “If you look who has rebounded the best from that inflation, it’s the United States.”
Michael Struett, political science department chair, said Trump can credit most of his economic rapport to former President Barack Obama, as economic policy and tax codes often take years to show their effects. He also said Biden inherited inflation which was exacerbated by Trump’s policy.
“People frame it as though, the day a president takes office, starting on Jan. 20, the inflation rate or the unemployment rate is their responsibility from the next day,” Struett said.
The professors said there has been discussion about significant shifts in voting patterns among key demographic groups, particularly among the Latinx community and young men.
Taylor said the shift in the Latinx community might have been due to older Latinos resonating with Trump’s immigration policy.
“There’s a lot of talk that people, particularly older Hispanics, particularly males, are actually pretty hardcore on immigration,” Taylor said. “And the story is that they came here legally and they see new people just rushing over the border as line-jumpers, and that there’s a process, and there’s a way that you do it.”
Struett said Trump’s alliance with billionaire Elon Musk and his masculine approach to politics attracted young males who otherwise wouldn’t have voted.
“The campaign mobilized disaffected young men ages 20 to 35 who, political scientists, including me, would have told you last week, [were] pretty unlikely to turn out,” Struett said. “ … [They are] living pretty busy, complicated, working lives. Don’t necessarily know why they should vote or care. Tend to be pretty indifferent whether it’s a Democrat or Republican in the White House, and yet, somehow they convinced him that Trump was their guy.”
Lane said Harris struggled to distance herself from the Biden administration, which was a vital issue for her campaign.
“Biden is an incredibly unpopular president right now, and Harris, unfortunately, is connected to that, and she didn’t really do anything to distance herself,” Lane said.
Greene said Harris failed to capitalize on issues that have been growing popular in the country.
“I think she really needed to kind of give people more of a reason from why she was not the 2019 Kamala Harris, other than pure political expediency, and I will never understand why they didn’t run on raising the minimum wage and protecting health care for people with pre-existing conditions, discussing what J.D. Vance said he would take away,” Greene said. “I don’t get that.”
Taylor said ultimately, Harris’ performance had less to do with her campaign, but rather with trends seen across the country.
“I don’t think Kamala Harris ran a particularly bad campaign,” Taylor said. “I don’t think it was a particularly good one, but I don’t think Democrats can say, ‘What were we thinking?’”
Struett said Trump has long been building a charismatic persona that riles his base.
“Trump still is the character from ‘The Apprentice,’” Struett said. “He very successfully built the national brand for himself over a decade before he even entered politics and that stuck.”
Greene said Trump’s unique political persona was a crucial element of his victory.
“He’s Trump,” Greene said. “There’s nobody else like Trump in American politics, possibly ever. He’s a political unicorn.”
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