China is bracing for a renewed wave of unpredictability and potential friction with the United States over trade, technology, and Taiwan.
Among the biggest potential impacts on China, if Trump fulfills his campaign promises, is his threat to impose a sweeping 60% tariff on all Chinese exports to the US.
Such a tariff would significantly impact China’s struggling economy, which is already grappling with high youth unemployment, a prolonged property slump, and government debt.
According to an analysis by UBS earlier this year, a 60% tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China’s economic growth by 2.5 percentage points, or roughly half of its projected growth.
During Trump’s first term, the US placed tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. This pressure brought Beijing to the negotiating table, resulting in a 2020 trade deal in which China pledged to improve intellectual property protections and purchase an additional $200 billion in US goods. However, a later study found that China had bought very few of the promised goods. President Joe Biden retained most of Trump’s tariffs and added new duties this year on items like steel, solar cells, and electric vehicles.
Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University specializing in international trade, suggests that, as before, tariffs could be used to pressure Beijing into negotiations.
“Given the weak economic position of China this time, I think there will be more willingness to talk,” he said. “Thus, while the tariff might have some short-term effects on the Chinese economy, the situation might improve once they reach a deal.”
Trade discussions might also involve Trump’s outreach to Chinese President Xi Jinping to mediate in the Ukraine conflict, a challenge Trump claims he could quickly resolve, though he hasn’t specified how.
Previously, Trump sought Xi’s assistance in dealing with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, a pattern that may continue, with Trump balancing trade disputes against efforts to gain China’s support in global crises.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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