Back in 2016, when presidential candidate Hillary Clinton dropped the words “deplorable” to describe voters who would not vote for her, her liberal supporters were convinced she was well on her way to the White House.
Hardly anyone paid any attention to people like the lead author who argued that ordinary working Americans who struggle for a decent livelihood could spring a nasty and deplorable surprise for Clinton. A massive gathering of her supporters and media (including many from India) were all set to cheer for the first woman president of the United States. All of them were hit by an avalanche of shock and disbelief when the maverick Donald Trump won the elections.
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It is 2024 and the sense of shock and disbelief once again envelopes liberals. The standard response from this cohort is: “how can a Hitler-like fascist who is also a convicted felon win the presidential elections? What is wrong with people?” Beyond this lament, data and history reveal three important facets of America.
First, the country is even more polarised than ever. If you think India is getting polarised, look at the US and get a wakeup call. Second, core livelihood and safety issues usually trump grand rhetoric about democracy. George Bush Sr was on top of the world after demolishing the invading Iraq army that had captured Kuwait in 1991.
Yet, in the 1992 elections, his Democrat challenger Bill Clinton went on and on about a term coined by his advisor: It’s the economy stupid. Third, ethnic identity groups that never traditionally backed the Republican Party have started voting in large numbers for it. That’s something similar to India where the BJP has transitioned from being a Brahmin-Baniya party to one of OBCs and tribals.
Look at the levels of polarisation. One recalls 2014 in India when some activists and Bollywood personalities stated they might be forced to leave India if Narendra Modi becomes prime minister. But they were an insignificant minority as the rest of India moved on.
The results of a CNN exit poll after this election in America show how terribly polarised the nation has become. A charge levelled by liberals in the US is that Trump supporters are racist and revel in dislike and hate for the “other”. The CNN exit poll has interesting insights.
Only about six per cent of Trump supporters say their primary purpose was to vote against Kamala Harris. In contrast, more than three out of ten supporters of Harris say their primary purpose was to vote against Trump. There is more: about 93 per cent of Trump supporters say they would be scared if Harris becomes president. Similarly, 98 per cent of Harris supporters say they would be scared if Trump became president.
One last nugget before the authors move on as there is limited space: about 76 per cent of Harris supporters say illegal immigrants should be given a chance to become citizens. In contrast, 86 per cent of Trump supporters say they should be deported.
In the days running up to the day of voting, there was a lot of noise about abortion being a major issue for women; enough to tilt the balance in favour of Harris. There was another set of analysts who insisted that basic bread and butter, livelihood and safety issues would predominate. The latter have proven to be correct. Even Democrats admitted before voting that the Joe Biden administration was perceived to have performed very poorly in managing the economy.
Ordinary Americans were struggling to buy groceries, fuel and pay house mortgages or rents. The CNN exit poll reflects this. About 44 per cent of Harris supporters say they are dissatisfied with the direction in which the country is heading. One in four of Harris supporters say inflation is causing severe hardship and almost half say it is causing moderate hardship. If half your own supporters are unhappy with your performance when it comes to livelihood issues, it would be delusional to expect voters to plump for you.
According to the poll data, 20 per cent of Harris supporters say economy was the key issue while just nine per cent say immigration is one. In contrast, nearly half of Trump supporters say the economy is the key issue and nearly one third say immigration is the key issue. Clearly, those who voted for Trump were driven by livelihood and safety issues. The number of girls and women raped and murdered by illegal immigrants in the last one year has been statistically very small in a nation of 350 million people. Yet, the tidal and ceaseless wave of illegal immigrants moving into America since 2021 has made these crimes stark and symbolically cataclysmic.
Third, the biggest takeaway is not that Trump has won the presidential election and will be sworn in as the 47th president of the country. The real surprise is that Donald Trump has won even the popular vote; something he failed to do in 2016 and 2020.
This time, Trump won a 51 per cent vote share. No longer can liberals and Democrats bemoan that Trump has become president even though his opponent has won a bigger share of the popular vote. In fact, since the time of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, it has been rare for a Republican to win the popular vote. Trump has done it. How? It is no longer a party of just white Anglo-Saxons. It is becoming an umbrella party of all ethnic identities.
In the past, blacks, Hispanics and Asians voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. Not this time. About 45 per cent Latinos and 38 per cent of Asians have voted for Trump. Among younger and male Latino voters, Trump gets 60 per cent of the vote.
It is a bit like India where the BJP has managed to successfully lure OBC, Dalit and tribal votes to become an umbrella organisation. Analysts in India are still in denial about this. Expect analysts in America, too, to be in denial.
The authors will crunch more data for more insights. But one last shocker. The Democrats have always claimed to represent the working people and the middle class. What does the data from the exit poll say? Voters earning less than $50k a year voted in favour of Trump. Among voters earning more than $50k a year voted for Harris. No wonder the Democrats have become the party of elites.
(Yashwant Deshmukh is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of C Voter Research Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director)
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the authors)
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