Introduction by Croakey: In the past 24 hours, Croakey asked a range of health leaders to describe their immediate responses to the United States election outcome.
They used these words: Fear. Solidarity. Renewed resolve. Resistance. Hope. Dismay. Sorrow. Anger. Deep-seated sadness. Shock. Devastation. Deep disappointment. Disbelief. Denial.
Below, Distinguised Laureate Professor Nick Talley explores the implications for global security, public health and climate action, and draws upon the writings of American scientist and science communicator Carl Sagan.
Nick Talley writes:
Donald Trump has won a resounding US Presidential election victory, winning the popular vote as well as the Electoral College. Further, there will be no brake on his power with the Republicans claiming the Senate and likely the House. Expect the winners to tighten their control and rewrite recent history.
As a former US resident, the title of a book, ‘Cry, the Beloved Country‘, by South African writer Alan Paton, came to mind on hearing the election result; I silently weep for the past and the America I loved.
Talking to my US friends and colleagues, I suspect many Americans chose Trump because they wanted a change, they liked the strong man image, and they were convinced by the rhetoric that the economy and their lives will be better under his administration.
Further, I think many educated voters believed the outrageous rhetoric and theatrics was all for show; time will tell but I suspect they should have believed Trump meant a lot of what he said.
Many of the Americans who voted for Trump do not understand the implications of what they have done, but they will.
Looking backwards
Carl Sagan, who died in 1996, was a visionary American astronomer who wrote decades ago a prophetic piece: “I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time – when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness….”
Under Trump, even if the economy soars (which, based on the proposed policies, many economists seem to doubt), huge numbers of many Americans are likely to be worse off.
For those without or with only limited health care, cost of care will not improve and even for those with healthcare they may be more at risk if health plans are rolled back as now seems more likely.
For US migrants, even legal migrants, life will be worse especially if illegals are hunted and rounded up; this could spill over into racially motivated violence.
The free press will be under threat and even billionaires will feel constrained to jump into line as they did pre-election. If the rule of law is weakened and checks and balances reduced, everyone who opposes what is happening will be at risk and real freedom could be eroded.
Public health and vaccination protections are at risk based on the comments of Robert F Kennedy, a vocal critic of vaccine “over-reach” and the Food and Drug Administration, who may become the new US health czar.
Will women really be better off under a Trump administration? I can’t see this happening unless an about face occurs; it is more likely abortion and IVF rights, driven by individual state laws, will deteriorate.
There is also probably a new glass ceiling; it will now be a long time before a woman is selected to run for the US presidency again.
Risking our future
A more authoritarian and isolationist USA is likely to see the rise of totalitarianism elsewhere and a change in the world order. The risk of conflict will then be higher, not lower for the world but paradoxically not for Americans in the short term.
For Europe, especially Ukraine, and probably for Taiwan, this election means a greater risk of conflict, for if the US doesn’t or won’t constrain the other great powers, who can or will?
If Russia annexes part or all of Ukraine as US support dwindles, the rest of Europe will be threatened but the US under Trump will likely stay out of it unless it benefits them (or they are forced into action).
In terms of Australia’s security, we can’t in my view count on the US alliance unless it directly benefits the USA.
As the fossil fuel companies celebrate “drill baby drill” and a Trump victory, I’d reflect on what this means for us and in particular the future of the world’s children.
The 2024 Lancet Countdown released in October reports on the record-breaking ever-increasing threats to health and survival from global warming. Climate change indicators point to the limited time window we have available to reduce emissions and in particular reverse our insatiable appetite for coal, oil and gas.
Trump has repeatedly stated his scepticism about climate change and US support for the United Nations will be under scrutiny.
It now appears we could lose the opportunity to constrain climate change as the US seems highly likely to drop out (and, if they do, others will follow). The medium to long term consequences will be catastrophic if this happens. The poor will suffer the most to begin with but in the end, all will be impacted.
The world is likely to look very different in 50 years because of this US election, and it’s an ugly vision.
Carl Sagan, the visionary scientist, also wrote: “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”
I suspect November 5th will be remembered this way by many Americans.
Democracy has spoken. The new America has arrived. The old USA and its enlightened values of common decency, the rule of law, and balance of power on the way out, and the new values of anti-immigration, anti-woke, and anti-science in vogue.
We are all, to quote the English expression, now “living in interesting times”.
Author details
Nick Talley is Distinguished Laureate Professor at the University of Newcastle, Chair of the Board of Doctors for the Environment Australia, and President of the Asian Pacific Association of Medical Editors. He is a Past President of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians and Past Chair of the Committee of Presidents of Medical Colleges.
From 2007-2010, he was was Chair of the Department of Internal Medicine at Mayo Clinic Florida, and he has held appointments as Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Mayo Clinic and was Foreign Guest Professor at the Karolinska Institute. He is an Adjunct Professor at the University of North Carolina.
See Croakey’s coverage of the US election and health
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