Donald Trump promises to bring about massive change – hiking import tariffs, boosting oil production and rolling back climate regulations – with the ramifications going far beyond US borders.
Trump has been elected the 47th US president, marking his second time in office, and at 78 he is the oldest person ever to be elected.
He was declared the victor on Wednesday morning (6 November) having secured more than the 270 electoral votes needed to take the presidency.
Addressing supporters in Florida, he said: “It’s a political victory that our country has never seen before – nothing like this”.
The race between the Republican Trump and the Democrat Kamala Harris looked extraordinarily close until the very end. It was only in the early hours of Wednesday morning that it became apparent that Trump was edging ahead.
Tech billionaire supporter
This victory was preceded by a campaign trail that saw Trump and Harris attend rallies all over the country, especially in key swing states.
Trump had an unlikely ally in the form of Elon Musk, the tech mogul and world’s richest man, who often appeared with Trump on stage. He was also very vocal in his support for Trump to his 203 million followers on the social media platform X, which he owns.
As well as being the owner of Tesla and SpaceX, Musk donated more than $100m to Trump’s campaign, which according to Forbes, makes him the second-largest individual pro-Trump donor during the election cycle.
Musk was also handing out $1m a day to swing state voters as part of his recently formed America PAC. According to Reuters, as of 5 November, Musk had given away $16m to registered swing state voters who qualified for the giveaway by signing his political petition that pledged to support free speech and gun rights.
Trump said that if he was elected he would set up an independent government efficiency panel headed by Musk to “root out waste in the federal government”, reported Reuters.
Electric vehicles
Despite Trump’s close association with Musk, arguably one of the most prominent players in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, he has expressed negative reservations about the industry as a whole and promised to “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one”.
While the Biden administration hasn’t actually implemented an explicit mandate, new EPA regulations limiting tailpipe pollutions are so strict it would compel carmakers to sell far more electric and hybrid models over time in order to reduce their overall emissions. This is part of Biden’s plan to convert half of all vehicle sales to EVs by 2030 at the latest.
Furthermore, Trump has said he will dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act which includes various provisions to incentivise EV adoption including tax credits for manufacturers of both the vehicles themselves and the batteries.
But despite all his negative rhetoric, Trump said he was “for electric cars” in August, adding: “I have to be, because Elon endorsed me very strongly.”
Industry analysts expect officials in the current administration to try and finalise some regulations before Biden leaves the White House including a waiver aimed at California that will allow it to progress its plan to ban gas-powered car sales by 2035. California is one of the largest markets for cars in the country, and other states have also expressed a desire to follow the state’s zero-emission trajectory.
Project 2025
Now that Trump has secured victory, many are wondering whether the policies within Project 2025 will come to fruition.
Project 2025 is a 900-page policy ‘wish list’, first unveiled in April 2023, that includes a multi-part plan for a conservative administration. It was written by right-wing think tank the Heritage Foundation, which said that more than 100 conservative organisations contributed to the document.
The Democrats fiercely condemned the document and Trump began distancing himself from it in early July.
However, now that he will be in power, an article in The Washington Post said that “it’s widely expected that at least some of the plans from Project 2025 will come to fruition”.
Tariffs
One of Trump’s main economic pitches has been to institute tariffs. This could include as much as 20% on all imports coming into the country and as high as 60% on goods made in China. He has said he wants to phase out Chinese imports of goods such as electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.
His reasoning for the hike in tariffs is that it will help bring back manufacturing jobs and eliminate the trade deficit. However, tariffs could lead to global economic instability and higher prices for US consumers. For instance, tech giants such as Apple, which makes most of its products in China, could be heavily impacted by higher tariffs and pass those costs onto the consumer.
Energy – “drill, baby, drill” and pulling out of the climate agreement
Trump has pledged to boost oil and gas production in the US as, in his own words, he wants to “drill, baby, drill” and end Biden’s pause on liquefied natural gas export terminals.
Project 2025 outlined other plans affecting energy such as closing down the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency that measures how much the temperature is rising.
Project 2025 has also called for the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act – the $370bn bill aimed at accelerating the move to clean energy – to be repealed.
With Trump famously having said that he thinks climate change is a “hoax”, he will no doubt bring an end to other climate initiatives and rules aimed at lowering emissions brought about by the Biden administration. This includes rolling back electric vehicle mandates and other policies aimed at reducing automotive emissions.
Trump has also said he will again pull the US out of the Paris Climate Accords, a framework for reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
According to US news site Axios, Trump’s emphasis on drilling for more oil and gas – if paired with roll-backs of emissions-limiting regulations and alterations to the Biden climate law – could lead to significantly more GHG emissions than would have been expected had Harris defeated him.
Focus on domestic manufacturing
Trump has pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies that make their products in the US.
The Biden administration hiked tariffs on semiconductors imported from China, with the rate set to increase to 50% by 2025. Financial news outlet Benzinga said that it was likely Trump would maintain this policy and perhaps raise tariffs even higher to encourage chip manufacturers to establish production facilities inside the US.
According to Benzinga, Trump has been highly critical of the CHIPS and Science Act, which was signed into law by Joe Biden in 2022 and authorises $280bn in funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors. Investors and chipmakers will have to see whether Trump will attempt to dismantle or reduce this programme.
AI regulation
Trump has already committed to rolling back Biden’s executive order on AI regulation. This means that tech companies looking to scale AI like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services will probably face less regulatory oversight under a Trump administration, potentially giving them more freedom in developing and deploying AI technologies.
What Trump’s win did to the markets
Bitcoin stocks reached an all-time high on Wednesday morning when Trump’s victory became obvious. Bitcoin climbed as much as 9% at one point to reach a record $75,389, before falling back to below $74,000. Other cryptocurrencies also soared, including ethereum, the world’s second most popular cryptocurrency, which leapt 8%.
Trump earlier this year made it clear he was embracing cryptocurrencies and declared that he wanted all bitcoin to be made in the US.
According to Reuters, he has pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency. He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture to trade cryptocurrencies.
However, renewable energy stocks fell after Trump’s victory became clear. For instance, shares in Germany’s Nordex, which designs, sells and manufactures wind turbines, fell 6.4%, and those in Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish wind turbine maker, dropped by 8%.
The US dollar also rose 1.7% against the euro and the pound to its highest level since July 2024.
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