Last Tuesday, the nation historically re-elected former President Donald J. Trump in a landslide. Garnering 312 electoral votes, a swing-state sweep, a four million vote victory in the popular vote and keeping a woman out of the White House for a second time, Trump made history being the second ever non-consecutively elected president to serve two terms. As a week has passed since the election, the question can pivot from what the election result will be to how it happened and what the long-term implications are.
President Trump has retained his cyclical ability to attract non-traditional voters who would otherwise not vote. This is evidenced by the pollsters continued failures to account for the total volume of support for the president-elect. According to a survey done by the Brookings Institution, pollsters underestimated Trump’s appeal by an average of 2.6% in swing states alone on FiveThirtyEight polling averages. The support manifested in Trump delivering a swing state sweep, expanding margins in red states and improving support in deep-blue states. Compared to 2020, Harris failed to gain more voters in a single state than Biden did, was the first Democrat to lose the popular vote since John Kerry and lost ground to Trump’s 2016 victory. With Harris’s flop on the ballot, she took Congressional and Senatorial Democrats with her, handing both Congressional chambers to the Republicans to deliver a GOP-trifecta for 2025. By all metrics, Tuesday night was an embarrassing defeat for the Democratic Party’s ruling regime and a unilateral victory for Trumpism.
After an election, everyone loves to predispose the American public to have chosen their president by a unified metric. This is the go-to analysis, as its simple to say that people voted for Trump because of the economy, or that Harris supporters did so for abortion rights. However, this ignores America’s multipolar electorate. To understand the full story of who voted for which candidate and why, exit polls give an important insight. According to the NBC national exit polling, the top two issues were “the state of democracy” at 34% and “the economy” at 32%. Though wailing about “threats to democracy” have become colloquial for Democrats, Trumps victory demonstrates that plurality of Americans who are anxious about the state of their government are not uni-party, and some voted against the regime for their concerns. Yet with the economy, it’s a little bit more cut and dry. Historically, poor economic performance is often a reason for political change in Washington D.C. Gallup reporting on October 18th that Americans feel as though they were worse off financially before the election compared to four years ago by a factor of 26 points. When Americans pockets are hurting, they tend to blame the party in charge of the country, so that was a clear indicator in the voting for president-elect Trump. According to the NBC election poll, the most likely group to say the economy was “excellent” or “good” were Democrats, while “not so good” was biased Republicans and “poor” was outright Republicans. Aided with the context that those earning over $100,000 annually were more likely to vote Democrat, while those earning under were more likely to vote Republican, it becomes clear exactly who the economy is working for. Other big issues like immigration and abortion were a bit more obvious to indicate which candidate the respondents were more likely to vote for, yet there are two sides to all political issues, evidencing the multipolar electorate. Yet, I can safely assume that the economy was the biggest pull-in for Trump, at least as far as the issues are concerned.
For the past decade, speculation has been going on surrounding the longevity of the Republican party due to the demographic changes the United States. With the white population share being reduced by 10 points since year 2000, and the Democratic parties seeming domination of minority voters, it was presumed that the old-guard GOP was going to wither and die. While many viewed Trumpism as the last breath of an American nationalist and conservative movement, it was rather the reincarnation and sustenance. According to the NBC election poll, Trump dominated the male vote, winning both white men and Hispanic men by 10+ point margins. President-elect Trump didn’t only win the white vote, but also earned support from one out of three minority voters. The populist and nationalist message has found roots in minority communities as well, swinging specifically men of color further to the right, solidifying the Trump coalition. To hold onto this coalition, the GOP is going to have to adopt Trumpism entirely after the end of his term. Don’t get me wrong, Republicans ought to keep pushing the conversation to the right in terms of rhetoric surrounding immigration and displacement, but they must acknowledge that it is only attainable under the guise of the Trump-populist movement. The election results prove that a nativist, nationalist and immigration restrictionism message can not only be tolerable to minority groups, but also energize a base of young men to openly support that initiative. The Republicans must dump the neocons of yesteryear, such as Nikki Haley, Liz Cheney and Mitch McConnell, to energize their male voter base with the same reactionary politics that got them to the polls this time around.
Trump’s victory exhibits what little influence the institutions have. Regardless of the specific instigation of the capitol riot on Jan. 6, president-elect Trump’s supporters did indeed siege the capitol. President-elect Trump is the only president to be impeached twice. President-elect Trump was found liable of slander involving a rape case. President-elect Trump was indicted by a New York Attorney General 34 times. The media attacked him regularly for eight years, 24/7. Big business colossally funds his opponents. Yet,th president. In a shocking populist revolt, the president arrives to Washington with an impossible mandate. The only question now is whether he is capable of delivering on his promises.
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