With a 2024 presidential election that was decided more quickly than any of the leading pollsters expected, Republicans have now won a trifecta of power in Washington, D.C., flipping the White House and Senate while keeping control of the House of Representatives with another slim majority.
President-elect Donald Trump will take office having won the popular vote in addition to the Electoral College – the first time this has been done by a Republican candidate since 2004 – which many believe gives the incoming leadership a mandate to immediately fulfill key campaign promises.
The Republican Party gained four seats in the Senate, giving it a 53-47 majority in the chamber for the upcoming 119th Congress. Republicans in the House are projected to maintain their majority with a slim margin, winning between 121 and 123 seats, only three to five more than the required 218.
With President-elect Trump already plucking several representatives for positions in his administration, House leadership will be forced to work with a precarious coalition, although this time around they will not be faced with an opposition party in the Senate chamber.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who won the gavel again in House leadership elections, already has some experience working with a small majority in the 118th Congress. He will spend the next two years working in tandem with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who was elected to replace longtime GOP leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) via secret ballot.
House Democrat leadership elections took place on Nov. 19, 2024, and Senate Democrat elections will take place in December, with no major changes expected. Rep. Hakeem Jefferies (R-Ill.) was elected House minority leader, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to serve as minority leader in the Senate.
Once leadership elections are decided and out of the way, the parties will work to set committee and subcommittee chairs and ranking members who will influence key policy details of emerging legislation. Here are some leaders and issues for the security industry to keep an eye on in the 119th Congress.
Government Funding
The House and Senate Appropriations Committees are responsible for all discretionary (i.e., annual, congressionally determined) government spending. While programs can be authorized through their committees of jurisdiction, they will not be funded until they receive appropriations, most often through the annual funding process that keeps the government open each year.
Major leadership changes are not expected for these committees, as Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) will keep his spot as chair and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) will remain ranking member in the House. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) will take over the chair position, swapping with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), who will move to ranking member in the Senate.
With the current measure providing fiscal 2024 government funding set to expire on Dec. 20, one of the main priorities for Republicans in the lame duck session will be to determine whether they should cut a deal on appropriations in the 118th Congress, freeing up their legislative schedule to focus on the Trump administration’s first 100 days or pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) into the new year and make their preferred adjustments to spending once they have control of both chambers.
If a short-term CR is passed, it will likely extend the government funding deadline into March 2025 so the new Congress has time to cut a deal. Look to these bills throughout the year for the GOP spending priorities. Any cuts to agency budgets, funding for grant programs to procure security equipment or reporting requirements on hot-button issues like the border will happen on this legislation.
Tax Cuts
The biggest legislative priority once President-elect Trump takes office will be an extension and revision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which contains many of the tax priorities of his first administration. Many of the provisions of this current U.S. tax structure will expire in 2025 without further action.
The U.S. Constitution requires that all bills regarding taxation must originate in the House of Representatives. The Committee of Ways and Means, the chief tax-writing committee in the House, will remain under the leadership of Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) as chair and Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) as ranking member.
The bill will then move to the Senate Finance Committee, led by Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). Sen. Wyden and Rep. Smith were joint authors of a bipartisan, bicameral tax bill that they attempted to move through Congress throughout much of 2024.
Now that the balance of power in Washington has shifted, Sen. Crapo will be at the helm in the Senate, and both chambers will have a chance to write the legislation from a more GOP-leaning perspective, as they use the budget reconciliation process (which requires only a simple majority) to avoid a Democratic filibuster.
For security firms, the tax policy changes and extensions likely in 2025 will skew towards Republican policy proposals, which means the corporate tax rate will remain at 21% or lower, the research and development tax credit could be revived and extended and bonus depreciation that allows businesses to write off 100% of the cost of security improvements to their facilities could be reinstated – all policies important to security manufacturers and integrators large and small.
Border Security After the Election
Immigration has long been the cornerstone of President-elect Trump’s platform, and the transition team has indicated that this will be among the top priorities for his first 100 days. As border security initiatives move front and center once again, there will be a growing demand for physical and technological solutions for ports of entry and situational awareness along the border.
With the House Homeland Security Committee set to be led by Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) as chair and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) as ranking member and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee to remain under the leadership of Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), expect Republicans Green and Paul to helm sweeping border security measures.
This will include funding for a border wall and more money to Customs and Border Patrol agents that lawmakers will attempt to tack on to the budget reconciliation process. Policies and reforms that go beyond having a budgetary or revenue impact may be tempered by the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.
Firms that offer border security solutions should keep an eye on the budget process, as that could unlock more funding for key programs.
Things to Keep an Eye On
The Trump campaign has kept a consistent emphasis on the implementation of tariffs. As it becomes clearer how these campaign promises turn into concrete policies, this could have a significant effect on sectors like the security industry, which depends on global supply chains for electronic or other manufactured items.
There is also likely to be another revival of measures targeted specifically towards Chinese-made products. Meanwhile, expect GOP efforts to reduce the budget deficit with cuts to agencies that have been identified to be on the chopping block by the new Department of Government Efficiency, such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
While the newly created office is unlikely to have unilateral power to slash funding, these are programs that could be targeted by congressional Republicans when they seek to balance the budget.
On the other hand, we could see funding and resources increase for law enforcement, school security improvements and crime reduction programs, as these have been identified as priorities throughout the Trump campaign.
As we navigate the next two years (at least) of governance under a Republican trifecta, the Security Industry Association (SIA) government relations team will work to ensure the security industry is kept well informed of the federal policies and regulations that affect firms in this space.
In any scenario, SIA will be working to ensure that security industry priorities are given consideration at every level and in every step of the process – from the administration’s policy setting to congressional action and agency implementation.
Engaging early and often with all relevant stakeholders will ensure that SIA and the security industry are included in and involved in the most important conversations.
State Election Results Are Equally Important
In the United States, there are 99 state legislative bodies, and there were elections for 85 of them across 44 states in 2024. Across the landscape of state legislatures, the results also show a clear Republican tilt, with Republicans holding nearly 55% of all state legislative seats nationwide, while Democrats have just over 44%.
The GOP maintained control in 56 state legislative chambers, compared to the Democrats’ 41. Notably, Alaska stood out with a unique arrangement due to the fact that the majority of its voters and many candidates are independents – both its House and Senate operate under multipartisan power-sharing coalitions, rather than single-party control.
Heading into 2025, there are 23 Republican trifectas (meaning the same party controls the both the governorship and legislative bodies within a state government) and 15 Democratic trifectas (-2), with 12 divided governments (+2).
Most notably, the Democratic Party lost its trifecta in two states: Michigan, where Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives, and Minnesota, where the House will likely be tied 67-67, breaking the two-year-long Democratic trifecta.
Implications
Legislation can pass more easily and quickly in states with trifecta control. While there were some rightward shifts across state elections, less sweeping change can be expected compared to the federal government; however, some states are preparing legislative agendas to counter expected Trump administration priorities, which could result in an uptick of legislative activity.
It is also likely that more state legislatures will be emboldened to move legislation on issues that are now not expected to receive as much attention in the new Congress. Relevant to the security industry, this likely includes legislation on artificial intelligence and data privacy, for example.
SIA will be working to ensure that security industry policy priorities are given consideration at the state level during the 2025 sessions.
For more information, see the Security Industry Association’s recap and analysis of relevant state legislative developments in 2024.
Lauren Bresette is the senior manager of government relations for SIA. George Sewell is government relations coordinator for SIA. The original version of this post appeared on the Security Industry Association website and is used with permission.
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