The best year in cinema history, according to science

Ask the nearest cinephile to name the best year in cinema history, and they may throw out a few usual suspects: 1939, 2007, or 1999. The latter even had a book written about it entitled Best. Movie. Year. Ever. You might think that to be fairly definitive, but you’d be wrong. According to science, the answer is no.

In fact, if you crunch the numbers, the only one of these years that comes close to the top of the mountain is 1999 – and it’s actually third. 1939 and 2007 aren’t even in the top five of the most successful cinematic years. So, it begs two questions: what is the greatest year in cinema history? And how does anyone arrive at that conclusion?

In October 2023, Stat Significant’s Daniel Parris published a post entitled “What’s the Greatest Year in Film History? A Statistical Analysis.” Acknowledging the inherent ridiculousness of quantifying what is essentially a series of subjective opinions, he nevertheless endeavoured to apply as much rigorous scientific method as possible to the task.

Parris’ method pulled data from three main sources: online database rankings, such as IMDB and Letterboxd; “Best Of” lists composed by film critics; and lists of the highest-grossing films of any given year. By combining the opinions of regular filmgoers, paid critics, and the whims of the almighty dollar, Parris hoped to reach some consensus that would pass muster with scientists and statisticians.

Interesting quirks of the data began to pop up immediately. When Parris analysed the reviews of normal folks on IMDB and Letterboxd, he noticed differences. To him, IMDB reviewers read like they came from the kind of people who would review products on Amazon, while Letterboxd reviews were more likely to come from passionate movie lovers.

Interestingly, because both websites are fairly recent in the grand scheme of things, Parris was not surprised that the data revealed their pick for the best movie year was 2019. He found that online reviewers prided high-quality blockbusters, culturally relevant independent films, and zeitgeist-catching foreign films. 2019 had a host of all three: Joker, Avengers: Endgame, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Knives Out, and Parasite.

The results from movie critics, on the other hand, were startlingly different. By analyzing the Top 100 Movies and Directors lists compiled by Sight and Sound, as well as AFI and Variety’s 100 Greatest Movies polls, Parris found the ’60s and ’70s ruled the roost. The data pointed to 1974 as the best year according to critics, and it’s easy to see why. That year gave audiences time-tested classics like The Godfather Part II, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre, The Conversation, Blazing Saddles, and Chinatown.

Reading between the lines, Parris suggested that critics tend to prioritise visionary directors and filmmaking movements rather than the merits of a single film. Hence, a year like 1974, which came at the height of the New Hollywood era, makes perfect sense to emerge as the critic’s choice.

Things took a twist when Parris let money do the talking, though. An unexpected champion emerged when he analysed how many movies each year had in Box Office Mojo’s “Top Lifetime Adjusted Grosses” list. With 16 films in that esteemed ranking, 2002 was apparently the best year in box office history.

While that may seem like a strange winner, considering it came before the modern prevalence of billion-dollar blockbusters, it begins to make more sense when you look at the enduring franchises that released entries. After all, 2002 featured hits like Spider-Man, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and Austin Powers in Goldmember.

It all brings us to the moment of truth: after combining his three datasets and working out the average rank for each year, what was revealed to be the undisputed best year in cinema history? The answer is 2001.

While 2001 ranked poorly with critics – it was only their 25th most popular year – it did much better with online reviewers and in box-office terms. It came fourth and fifth, respectively, in those datasets, and this was enough to ensure it evened out at the top of the mountain.

It may be easy to dismiss, but when you consider that the year included The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Shrek, Amélie, Spirited Away, Mulholland Drive, Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone, and A Beautiful Mind it is also just as easy to see how those 12 months might be considered the finest in the history of filmmaking.

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