As the United States’ 2024 election cycle ends, the international community braces for its potential outcomes. The implications extend beyond domestic policy, potentially shaping the resolution of conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, and Taiwan and China.
Tensions between Iran and the United States have intensified as the Gaza conflict continues. Recent Israeli strikes on Iran and its allies have escalated hostilities, and Arab and Iranian officials have indicated plans for a retaliatory strike involving more powerful weapons than previously used. If Kamala Harris is elected president, her administration would likely maintain the status quo that has prevailed since the war began in October 2023. Opinions are divided: some believe the Biden-Harris administration has insufficiently addressed the conflict, while others commend its support for Israel, a US ally. In contrast, a Trump presidency might provide Israel with even greater latitude. Former President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to” regarding the war.
The outcome of the US election could also shape the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A Harris presidency would likely maintain the United States’ support for Ukraine. Harris stated that “I will continue to stand with Ukraine” and “will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war.” Since the war’s outset, many have noted that Ukraine’s fate hinges on US support. However, even with a Harris victory, a Republican-controlled Congress could limit the aid pledged by the Democratic presidential nominee. Conversely, at a recent rally, Trump told supporters, “I’ll get out. We gotta get out.” If Trump wins this election, an end to US involvement in this conflict appears likely.
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