In November of this year, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of an analysis of the business climate based on surveys of more than a thousand entrepreneurs. The report demonstrates the restorative nature of the business climate, with the most pronounced index growth in the industrial sector.
Consolidated business climate
According to the survey results, the consolidated business climate indicator increased by 9 points compared to last month and amounted to 51 points, respectively.
The share of enterprises assessing the current economic situation in the country as “good” increased by 4 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous month and amounted to 42%.
Regarding demand, 39% of enterprises reported an increase in demand for their products/services over the past three months, compared to 35% in October.
The increase in optimism among entrepreneurs from 56% to 68% is also a positive signal and indicates confidence in the willingness of companies to adapt to changes.
At the same time, the share of entrepreneurs predicting price cuts was 9%, which is slightly higher than the October level.
Sector analysis
In November, there was a positive trend in business climate indicators in all sectors of the economy. In particular, there is an increase in confidence in agriculture from 50 to 57 points. In industry, the business climate has increased significantly from 38 to 50 points. At the same time, there was a moderate increase in construction from 45 to 51 points, while the service sector grew from 40 to 48 points.
Expectations improved the most in agriculture and services, showing a high level of optimism, while the construction sector shows less confident expectations. Thus, in agriculture, the index increased from 62 to 67 points; in industry, there was an increase in confidence – an increase of 3 points to 48; construction increased by 1 point to 54 points, while the service sector increased by 7 points to 57.
The current state of the business has also improved. In agriculture, the index immediately rose by 10 indicators to 48 points. Industry recorded the most significant growth by 21 points to 51. Construction increased from 36 to 48 points, and the service sector – from 31 to 39 points.
Current business problems
Despite the positive changes, a number of key issues continue to have an impact on the business environment. 8% of respondents identified the issue of financing as the most urgent problem.
The increase in concern about tax administration, which has increased from 4% to 5%, also requires attention, as this may indicate the growing administrative barriers faced by entrepreneurs.
A decrease in the importance of problems with electricity supply from 6% to 4% may indicate positive changes in infrastructure.
Industry analysis of business problems
The analysis shows that in the industrial sector there is a significant decrease in the share of entrepreneurs facing problems related to electricity supply (from 15% to 8%), tax administration (from 7% to 4%) and tax rates (from 7% to 4%).
On the contrary, in agriculture, there has been an increase in the share of entrepreneurs facing tax administration problems (from 2% to 7%) and financing (from 11% to 13%).
It is important to note that in the construction sector there is also a decrease in problems related to financing (from 23% to 9%) and low demand (from 6% to 1%).
At the same time, the share of entrepreneurs in the service sector who face problems of low demand has increased (from 2% to 4%).
The Business Climate Index, developed by CERR, is an important analytical tool that allows to form informed conclusions about the current state of the economy and business conditions in Uzbekistan.
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