Which Films Will be Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars?

Oscar season kicked into high gear this month, transforming a race that once appeared to be wide-open into something with a little more shape.

What can be gleaned about this year’s crop of best picture contenders now that we’ve gotten nominations from the Golden Globes and Independent Spirit Awards, wins from the Gotham Awards, and a variety of critics’ groups picking their favorites? Below, I’ll project the films that I believe have the best shot at making the Oscars’ top category.

First, a disclaimer: Few of the groups that have weighed in so far include actual Oscar voters, and many of the early honors are decided by small juries that are dwarfed by the academy’s huge voter roll, which numbers nearly 10,000 members. Still, these awards bodies and tastemaker groups shape perception and help to winnow the field. As busy Oscar voters begin their quests to catch up on all the contenders, the movies that have already been doing well are likeliest to receive the most sampling.

I’ll begin with what I’ve been calling the A-B-C-D-E tier, the five strongest best picture bets that just so happen to begin with the first five letters of the alphabet.

‘Anora’

This comedy about a sex worker’s impulsive marriage to a wealthy Russian scion is off to a strong start: After winning the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in May, “Anora” opened in October to the year’s best per-screen average. Over the last few weeks, the film has won the best picture award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and netted great nomination hauls from the Golden Globes and the Indie Spirits. (The fact that both groups recognized the lesser-known supporting actor Yura Borisov is a sign of just how well the film is playing.) Still, here’s the most important thing: Whenever I talk to voters and industry insiders about their favorite films of the year, “Anora” gets by far the most shout-outs. It’s the passion pick and our current pack leader.