Welcome back to the 411mania Movies/TV Fact or Fiction. I’m your host Jake Chambers.
We are back in the Movies Zone this week for a FoF special with two of our most tenured writers and editors – from the best weekly box office report in the biz (among other things): Jeremy Thomas; and from the 411 first-ballot Hall of Fame column A Bloody Good Time (among other things): Joseph Lee.
Since these guys are big horror heads, I’ve slipped in a couple good horror-themed statements. Be warned, there could be some light spoilers below.
Statement #1: You’re expecting big things from the second season of Squid Game.
Jeremy Thomas: FACT – To be honest, Squid Game is a show that I have still not seen; I plan on watching it in the next few days before the second season drops. So my expectations for the quality are hard to judge at this point. But it’s not hard to have high expectations for a show that earned so much love from both critics and fans. Really though, my expectations are on the business side. It’s no secret that the show is Netflix’s biggest ever. And while there has been a question whether its impact has been as long lasting as its viewership suggests, there are strong indications that people are anticipating it in a big way. Viewership of the show has risen 60% in the last couple of months since the season one trailer arrived on October 31st, and that trailer has almost 10 million views (for perspective, the Wicked trailer that released a month before than has 3 million). I don’t think the show will hit the first season’s levels; that’s an unprecedented number that came during an unprecedented time. But yes, I expect it to be a huge hit, and probably a good watch too.
Joseph Lee: FICTION – The first season was what it was, and I feel like the time for it has come and gone. I’m sure it still has its fans but I don’t particularly care enough about it to expect anything from it. That said, if they can provide the same thrills and drama the first season provided and win everyone over again, I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Statement #2: Movie adaptations of a Broadway-style musicals like Wicked are usually better than seeing the original stage version.
Jeremy Thomas: FICTION – There are absolutely examples of this. Dreamgirls, Annie, Rock of Ages, The Sound of Music, Grease, In The Heights, and West Side Story (both versions) immediately come to mind — and this comes from someone who adores a number of those musicals. But it’s not a good enough batting average to say “usually.” In the interests of full disclosure, I love Wicked but I’m not counting it as better or worse because it’s only half the musical and I obviously can’t judge the back half yet. The point is, I’m always interested in film versions of Broadway musicals.
That said, you can throw a rock and hit a film that did not exceed its stage adaptation. The Phantom of the Opera and Jesus Christ Superstar, even though I like the latter, don’t exceed their originals. A Chorus Line. The abomination that is Dear Evan Hansen. Fucking Cats. Nine. Into the Woods. Evita. Jersey Boys. Hell, Rent is one of my all-time favorites but it is not better than the stage version. All in all, the track record is probably about 50/50 — and that’s me being generous. It’s okay if they’re not better than the stage version because they will probably still be very good, but many of them won’t top their source and that’s just the way it is.
Joseph Lee: FACT – I guess so? I’m not exactly in a position to see Broadway shows, and I can see movies, so it’s certainly more convenient. However there has been many a time in Hollywood when the original stage show was dumbed down or changed in some way for a film that it loses something, so it could go either way. I’ll still lean towards FACT, since the only way I can see musicals, if I wanted to, would be an adaptation. Not that I’d ever want to see Wicked or whatever else like it that’s coming down the pike. I think I’ve seen five musicals total in my life that were also stage shows.
Statement #3: They can’t realistically make a Smile 3 that follows up on the ending of Part 2, so instead the next movie in the series should be a prequel.
Jeremy Thomas: FICTION – I have less than zero interest in knowing the origin of the Smile entity. I think that what we know about it so far is all we need, and a prequel would either have to delve into those origins or just just recycle the general story arc of the first two. On the other hand, I think they absolutely can follow up on the ending of Smile 2 in a way that takes advantage of how things have been opened up while still not having to be a massively-budgeted film. Parker Finn has said he has ideas on how to do so, and he’s earned my faith in him to pull it off. I adored Smile 2 and thought it really showed Finn’s growth as a filmmaker; I am more than willing to give him a chance to do the same with the third film.
Joseph Lee: FICTION – Who needs realism in the Smile series? I *want* there to be a Smile part three that follows up on the potential insanity of two’s ending. If they went any other way, I’d be disappointed. That damn Smile demon needs to be working overtime like a damn slasher villain when we start things up again. The promise of that ending is the only reason I would be on board for a third film, honestly.
¡SWITCH!
Statement #4: You prefer comic book TV shows to be more procedural, like the CW shows, rather than the prestige and serialized style of HBO and Disney.
Joseph Lee: FICTION – I like a mixture, and it depends on what show we’re watching. Even the CW shows had an overall story arc that the cases of the week were wrapped up in. Procedural fit something like Arrow or Agents of SHIELD. Serialized was a better fit for Doom Patrol or Wandavision. It all depends on what characters you’re using and how. For example, I would think Lanterns should be procedural instead of “True Detective with Green Lanterns.” Or if Marvel ever did Exiles, that would be procedural. But other heroes would need a more serialized format.
Jeremy Thomas: FICTION – Good gods no. No shade to the Arrowverse; I watched them for much of their existence. But I do not like procedural shows as a rule anyway. I always want ongoing storylines — and sure, the procedural comic book shows have that too. But the “Of The Week” style stories eventually lead to me tuning out of shows in most cases. I will even take the lesser shows like Secret Invasion over the procedural stuff. I find myself far more interested and engaged in the likes of Peacemaker, WandaVision, The Penguin or Echo than I do shows like What If…? or Superman & Lois. And we can throw The Boys or Watchmen in the serialized prestige stuff as well.
I know people are down on Marvel, and I understand why even if I don’t necessarily agree. Even with that being the case, they’re undeniably on an upswing and Agatha All Along is one of my favorite shows of 2024, while Echo was also quite good. And DC is killing it between Penguin and the now-airing Creature Commandos. I enjoy the fact that we have all sorts of different shows in the genre, but my heart will always lie with the serialized format.
Statement #5: Nosferatu will be a Best Picture contender at the Academy Awards next year.
Joseph Lee: FICTION – I really want to say FACT. I really do, because Nosferatu looks amazing and it’s about time Robert Eggers gets recognized. However, he’s currently NOT getting recognized. Neither the Golden Globes nor Critics Choice Awards and those are usually early indicators on how the Academy will go. The Academy hates horror to a degree that I’ll be surprised if Hugh Grant and Demi Moore’s nominations from the Globes carry over. And Eggers in general has been ignored for all of his movies so far. The Northman didn’t even get technical nominations and it looked terrific. I would love if Nosferatu breaks that trend, but I don’t see it happening.
Jeremy Thomas: FICTION – I have extremely high hopes for Nosferatu, but there isn’t a chance of this happening. If horror is going to make a showing at the Oscars this year, it will be The Substance — and even that film’s hopes for a Best Picture nod are dim. The Academy hates honoring horror, which its old guard always views as a “low” genre. Remember, there have only been six horror Best Picture nominees in 96 years, and that’s if you count Silence of the Lambs, Jaws and Black Swan as horror (I do, many do not).
Now, that’s not to say Nosferatu won’t earn nominations. It is a strong contender for Costume Design and Hair/Makeup nods, it has a chance at Cinematography, and I could see a case for Production Design. But the “big awards,” whether it deserves them or not, just won’t happen. And I’m not even mad about it; there are some strong choices this year and frankly it might have ended up pushed out regardless of bias.
Statement #6: Movies and TV will get higher ratings, bigger box office and be more subversive and interesting during Trump’s presidency.
Joseph Lee: FACT – Films tend to be more subversive during times of political turmoil. Just going from a horror perspective, you can look at the Cold War, McCarthyism, the Reagan era of the 80s and the post-9/11 era as times when the genre underwent massive shifts. As for now, things are already getting more subversive. It’s no coincidence that we got two major horror films this year about forced pregnancies in the fallout of Roe v. Wade being knocked down. As for the higher ratings and bigger box office, maybe. I tend to think the average person isn’t going to have as much money to throw around with some of the things the President-elect has in mind, but this is not the politics section and I don’t need the headache.
Jeremy Thomas: FICTION – Will they get more subversive and interesting? Quite possibly. I’m not going to go on a political rant here (if you’re a regular reader, you know where I stand on that spectrum), but I will say that my first thought on November 6th was not “Well at least the shows and movies will be good!” With that out of the way, Trump’s first presidency certainly did that for film and TV. As one example, the rise of horror to where it is today can absolutely be attributed to the political turmoil of 2016 forward. It’s an observable trend throughout human history, but particularly the era of film: when turbulent times come, art gets more inspired.
It’s the first half of the statement where I go FICTION. Entertainment quality and entertainment business are not correlative. And the continued rise of Marvel at the time aside, there is no indication that Trump’s first term resulted in the course of box office or ratings changing. Business is much more closely aligned to other factors: cord-cutting, the rise of streaming, marketing tactics, consumer habits, shifts in demographics, etc. Trump’s first term saw the box office largely stable until COVID hit; each year from 2017 to 2019 was between $11 billion and $11.9 billion, and it wasn’t a constant upward trend (again, we’re not counting 2020 for obvious reasons). And TV ratings have been declining for 20 years, something that neither accelerated nor slowed in any attributable way to politics of the last eight years.
Long story short (too late): I do think that shows could get more interesting and subversive, but there is no possible reason to suggest that higher ratings or bigger box office on the whole is on the way. If the box office boosts it’s because we’ve finally fully recovered from the one-two punch of COVID lockdowns and the strikes; if TV ratings get a boost, check out your window for flying pigs.
Awesome stuff this week from two of the best! Always great to hear what they have to say about the pop culture world of movies and TV. Of course, if you are on this site then you are never far from their daily news drops – a role often taken for granted around here, let’s give them a big “thank you” for all the work they do on that front!
You can check out Jeremy Thomas’s always outstanding analysis of the weekend box office late Sunday/early Monday. And we are all anticipating Joseph Lee’s follow-up to last year’s awesome Horror Awards columns, which I’ve been assured will return! And I think you can find both of them now on BlueSky!
This post was originally published on here
