President-elect Donald Trump and his key advisors have embraced the “Return to Peace through Strength,” sometimes known as “America First,” concept when describing their foreign policy and national security goals in the next administration. This ideology supports the concept that the United States is best positioned to lead the world by placing the safety, prosperity and overall well-being of the American people first, a goal that has been described by some as isolationist. However, Donald Trump and his first administration believed it did not act in an isolationist manner, rather it prioritized transactional relationships and leveraging U.S. capital to pursue the “peace through strength” position. Trump’s policy decisions in the national security space, as well as other sectors, were often unpredictable and hard to anticipate.
In its first term, the Trump administration maintained hawkish policies against American adversaries like China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela. The administration imposed strict economic sanctions on nations of concern and pulled out of Obama-era deals. Trump also pulled back from American allies, threatening to leave existing security and economic agreements and refusing to join new ones if the United States did not stand to profit.
We expect a majority of Trump’s foreign policies during his next term will be aimed at increasing domestic manufacturing capacity, limiting participation in international alliances, and preventing the spread of critical U.S. goods to foreign adversaries. We believe Trump will also prioritize policies that help the United States become the global dominant energy producer, end the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, as well as support the manufacturing capabilities of the United States and related onshoring efforts.
People Are Policy: The Importance of Nominees
Leading up to the November presidential election, Trump maintained a majority of his key policies from the first administration, including plans to impose tariffs on China and other countries, implement strict immigration policies and restructure U.S. military aid and involvement in world conflicts. The implementation of these national security policies will be heavily dependent on who is confirmed for the top administration positions.
To date, Trump has nominated or identified the following individuals to serve in national security positions in his administration:
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for Secretary of State. Sen. Rubio currently serves on both the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and is passionate about implementing hawkish policies toward China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Russia.
- Christopher Landau for Deputy Secretary of State. Christopher Landau is the former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico and has experience as a lawyer. In 2020, it was rumored Landau was Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court; however, he was never nominated.
- Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. Pete Hegseth is an Army veteran and co-host of “Fox & Friends Weekend,” who is a staunch advocate for conservative military values and advocate for veteran affairs issues.
- Stephen Feinberg for Deputy Secretary of Defense. Stephen Feinberg is an investor and the cofounder of Cerberus Capital Management. He also served as the chair of the president’s Intelligence Advisory Board during the first Trump administration.
- Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) for National Security Advisor. Rep. Waltz is an Army veteran and former Green Beret and is also known for his tough-on-China policies during his time on the House Armed Services, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees.
- Michael Anton and Sebastian Gorka as Deputy National Security Advisors. Michael Anton is the former deputy assistant to the president for strategic communications on the National Security Council and is known for his speech writing and senior communications roles in the private sector. Sebastian Gorka is another former Trump administration official, and he has appeared and hosted shows regularly on Salem Radio Network and NewsMax TV. He also has experience from his time working in the Hungarian government and advising Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
- Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. Tulsi Gabbard is a veteran and former member of Congress who served for the Democratic Party in the House Armed Services, Homeland Security, Foreign Affairs and Financial Services committees. Gabbard left the party in 2022 and endorsed Trump in the 2024 election.
- John Ratcliffe for Central Intelligence Agency. John Ratcliffe is the former director of national intelligence under Trump and is a former member of Congress who represented Texas and served on the House Intelligence and Judiciary committees.
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Rep. Stefanik currently serves on the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, who previously accused the U.N. of antisemitism and shares Trump’s foreign policy priorities.
- Matthew Whitaker for U.S. Ambassador to NATO. Matthew Whitaker is the former acting attorney general and has a strong background in law enforcement and prosecution. He has not served in a foreign policy or national security-focused role before, and his foreign policy positions are unknown.
- Mike Huckabee for U.S. Ambassador to Israel. Mike Huckabee is a former Republican presidential candidate and former governor of Arkansas, who currently hosts a political commentator show and serves as a Baptist minister.
- David Perdue for U.S. Ambassador to China. David Perdue is the former senator of Georgia and has experience engaging the Chinese government on commercial issues during his time in the private sector.
- Ron Johnson for U.S. Ambassador to Mexico. Ron Johnson is the former U.S. ambassador to El Salvador during the first Trump administration and is a veteran with over 20 years of experience at the Central Intelligence Agency.
- Steven Witkoff for Special Envoy for the Middle East. Steven Witkoff is the founder of the real estate investor company, the Witkoff Group, and is a long-time friend of Trump. He does not have formal diplomatic or government experience, but he helped Trump engage with the Jewish-American business community during Trump’s campaign and is staunchly pro-Israel.
These officials will aid in the planning and execution of Trump’s international policy priorities.
China Competition
During his first term, Trump took a strong stance toward China, looking to economically decouple the United States, harden ties during the global pandemic and impose a variety of restrictions on Chinese goods. Trump’s China policy was designed to confront a variety of economic abuses: currency manipulation, intellectual property threats, economic espionage, as well as export and other subsidies. Trump and his administration were particularly concerned with China’s “Military-Civil Fusion” program between its businesses, the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to advance the PLA into a “world-class military” by 2049. The administration targeted telecommunications company Huawei and social media company TikTok for stealing personal data and intellectual property and influencing the American public.
Under the next Trump administration, we expect a focus on preventing threats posed by China’s Military-Civil Fusion program. There will be a focus on protecting U.S. technological development, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), research and development efforts, and increasing U.S. investment to enhance the U.S. semiconductor industry. Should Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) be confirmed as the next U.S. secretary of state, he is expected to advance Trump’s tough-on-China policies.
The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and Trump administration will coordinate the passage of legislation aimed at increasing restrictions on China and increasing U.S. domestic capabilities. This could include a focus on promoting U.S. access to critical minerals, increasing technological export controls and measures targeting outbound investment. Trump and the Select Committee likely will also work to enact legislation to reform the de minimis threshold and remove China’s Most Favored Nation Status, restricting trade between the nations.
Israel/Gaza Conflict and Broader Middle East Relations
Trump is a strident supporter of Israel and while initially skeptical of a two-state solution, he later put forward policy proposals that provided pathways to Palestinian statehood. Trump also relocated the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a move long called for by pro-Israeli advocates that incensed Palestinian actors. Trump also established the Abraham Accords to normalize relations between Israel and other countries in the Middle East.
During the campaign, Trump continued to express his pro-Israel sentiments and is expected to strongly back Israel in its conflicts against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Jan. 6, Trump stated “there will be hell if the hostages aren’t released” by his inauguration. Trump also has a close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Under Trump, the United States is expected to provide Israel with unconditional military assistance and give Israel leeway in its military decision-making, while providing additional scrutiny over assistance programs in Palestinian territories. This is signaled further by Trump’s initial appointments to key administration posts; Rubio has long been a stalwart supporter of the Jewish state, as have Waltz and Stefanik. The same measure of support for Israel can also be expected from his choice for Special Envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff.
The incoming administration’s position on the situation in Syria will not be as favorable as its relations with Israel. Trump has previously expressed skepticism for U.S. military presence abroad and may seek to reduce the U.S. military presence in Syria. During his previous administration, Trump said the mission was only focused on protecting the oil resources in the country. However, his full position on the fall of the Assad regime will depend on how the events develop leading up to the Jan. 20 inauguration.
The Trump administration is expected to maintain strong ties with other allies in the region, continue the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, reimpose visa restrictions and push for further expansion of the Abraham Accords. However, the feasibility of further normalization between Israel and Arab states is highly contingent on the duration and outcome of Israel’s regional conflicts as well as whether the U.S. and allies can mollify threats posed by Iran, its proxies and other regional terrorist groups. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran was primarily composed of sanctions to prevent it from fully developing its nuclear program, funding its network of proxies and profiting from its oil industry. Trump will likely constrain Iran’s economy through additional sanctions in an attempt to obtain greater concessions from the Iranian regime, which is supported by his picks for secretary of state and national security advisor. Rep. Waltz has even advocated for military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
Under the Trump administration, the United States will take an aggressive stance against Iran’s proxy groups, most notably Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as Iraqi militia groups that have previously attacked American forces. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani during the first Trump administration is emblematic of this approach.
The War in Ukraine and the U.S. Position Toward NATO
On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly declared that he would most likely seek a negotiated settlement (or, in his words, a “fair deal”) to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On several occasions, he promised to resolve the conflict before he entered office on Jan. 20. While Trump has provided few details on how he would specifically achieve this, the expectation is that he will push for a quick end to the war that would entail pressuring Ukraine to potentially accept territorial losses and secure a commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO. Trump also expressed interest in pausing U.S. economic aid and military assistance to Ukraine if it does not enter negotiations with Russia to end the war. However, Trump also said he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia does not join the peace talks. Following the announcement of Trump’s victory, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed his support for Trump’s “peace through strength” policy, adding it would bring about a “just peace” for Ukraine.
Trump’s appointments thus far for key foreign policy and national security roles largely share his views on the conflict. For example, Secretary of State nominee Rubio has called for a swift end to the war in Ukraine and was one of the 15 Republican senators to vote against the $61 billion military package for Ukraine in April. Likewise, his nominee for U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), and his National Security Advisor selection, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), voted against the military aid package. While Waltz had previously been supportive of U.S. aid to Ukraine, in September 2023 he penned an op-ed for Fox News criticizing Congress’ “blank check” approach for Ukraine and said further U.S. financial assistance must be contingent on additional aid provided from European countries.
Trump has often criticized NATO and its member countries for relying on the United States for military assistance. Trump also expressed displeasure with NATO’s collective defense clause. In the past, Trump threatened to remove the United States from the security partnership if other members did not meet the 2% of the country’s GDP for defense spending requirement. Trump also wishes to restructure NATO, including increasing the defense spending amount to 5% of GDP for member nations. Trump’s nominee as U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker does not have any known negative views toward NATO, but he will likely follow Trump’s national security strategy when it comes to U.S.-NATO policy.
Western Hemisphere Policy
Trump and his picks for the key national security positions in his administration are known for their tough policies in the Western Hemisphere. Trump exercised a maximum pressure campaign on Venezuela and Cuba and negotiated the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to replace NAFTA. Sen. Rubio and Rep. Waltz have supported legislation during their time in Congress that imposes sanctions and other restrictive measures toward the Maduro regime in Venezuela, as well as the Cuban government, and has attempted to prevent Chinese influence in Latin America.
Despite the interests of Sen. Rubio and other picks within the incoming administration, we do not believe Latin America policy will be the main focus of the Trump administration. Trump will continue his tough-on-Venezuela policy, and an area to watch will be how the incoming Trump administration navigates Maduro’s inauguration for a third term on Jan. 10. Trump may also continue some of his tough-on-Cuba policies, but it will not be to the same extent as his Venezuela restrictions.
The Trump administration’s largest focus will be renegotiating USMCA, implementing tough immigration policies and preventing Chinese goods from entering the U.S. market through Mexico. Trump wants to reimpose his “Remain in Mexico” program, Title 42 and other limits for seeking asylum. He made promises to increase counternarcotics operations to prevent fentanyl from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. After the election, Trump said he wants to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico until the countries meet his requirements to halt illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl and other drugs.
After the inauguration, Trump will have to establish new relations with the Mexican and Canadian governments. Mexican President Sheinbaum, who herself was elected in 2024, has spoken with Trump and agreed to work with the United States to address illegal migration, although the definition of said agreement differs between Trump and Sheinbaum. Trump will need to establish a relationship with the new prime minister of Canada once he or she is selected this spring. Trump has repeatedly commented that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state and highlighted how the merge would remove tariffs, reduce taxes and defend against the threat of Russia and China. The new players in Mexican and Canadian leadership could affect the tenor and tone of USMCA renegotiations.
U.S.-Africa Relations
During the first Trump administration, the president decreased funding for international development projects and most U.S. embassies on the continent were left understaffed. However, Trump signed legislation that created the Development Finance Corporation, and his administration began drafting a free trade agreement with Kenya. In the next administration, Trump and the Republican Congress will be in charge of the reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) that was first enacted in 2000, which has been used to promote U.S. national security priorities in Africa and compete with China’s presence in Africa. Trump will also inherit the U.S. Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI), a G7 initiative that seeks to address outsized Chinese influence globally. We expect the incoming Republican trifecta government to utilize both AGOA and PGI to promote U.S. business and commercial ties abroad, increase U.S. access to key critical minerals mined in Africa and continue to serve as a counter-China mechanism.
Next Steps
The 119th Congress began on Jan. 3, and Donald Trump will be sworn in on Jan. 20. Brownstein will continue to monitor U.S. national security policy in the next administration. We are also uniquely positioned to engage on these issues due to our bipartisan relationships across the U.S. government.
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