The 11-hour Sydney-Melbourne train has become so popular services are selling out – even with extra carriages added – as travellers seek alternatives to an aviation duopoly that is stronger than ever, with carriers charging $900 for one-way economy tickets.
Ridership on the Sydney-Melbourne rail corridor has exploded in recent months, with 203,000 passenger journeys between July and December. Data for the 2023-24 financial year revealed 393,000 passenger journeys, a 14% increase on the previous year and just 7,000 shy of the annual record.
While many of the passengers on the twice-daily New South Wales government-run XPT services travel only part of the trip from regional centres, Sydneysiders and Melburnians faced with significantly higher air fares on Australia’s busiest air route are increasingly turning to the train.
The popularity of the train – currently operated with decades-old stock that lacks device charging or wifi but boasts window tinting that helps block mobile reception for the entire journey – has seen Transport for NSW routinely add a sixth carriage to the service, bringing capacity up from 215 to 285.
Despite the extra carriage, services have continued to sell out. In 2023-24, an average of 277 passengers rode each service.
Beyond the lure of flat pricing on one-way tickets – $117 during peak holiday periods and $83 at other times – travellers do not need to pay to check in large suitcases or for airport transfers at both ends.
Demand for the train has remained strong over the current holiday period. Late on Friday there was not a single ticket available in any class on any of the twice-daily Sydney to Melbourne XPT train services until the evening service on Friday 17 January, with some services over the following days and weeks already sold out.
Meanwhile, Guardian Australia analysis of flights from Sydney to Melbourne over the next week – coinciding with the Australian Open – has found the average one-way fare cost $467, based on about 400 flights where economy seats were available at the time of publication.
Ticket prices are considerably lower – just $268 – to Avalon airport, south-west of metropolitan Melbourne and closer to Geelong. But just 37 of those flights were listed.
The vast majority of flights are scheduled to Melbourne’s main airport, Tullamarine, averaging more than $486 for a one-way ticket.
Thursday is by far the most expensive day of the week, where flights averaged close to $700. Prices have spiked dramatically on this route; Google’s data shows similar flights from Sydney to Melbourne usually cost between $70 and $150.
Guardian Australia analysis found it was impossible to buy a one-way flight to Tullamarine airport over the coming week for less than $200 on any carrier. A handful of Jetstar tickets for just under $200 were available late on Saturday 18 January.
While the cheapest economy ticket offered by Qantas is about $399, most of the airline’s tickets are advertised between $499 and $789 throughout the week.
Meanwhile, Virgin’s cheapest economy seats are available for about $229, rising to above $900.
In contrast, Qantas and Virgin are offering flights to Bali from Sydney that week for as little as $400.
Given heightened travel demand to Melbourne for the Australian Open, searches accordingly revealed that tickets flying out of Melbourne on the reverse leg to Sydney are slightly cheaper on some days.
The lack of cheap air fares follows an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warning in November that air fares had begun surging – despite a sharp drop in jet fuel prices – after the collapse of Bonza and end of Rex’s metropolitan city flights. This had led to Qantas Group (inclusive of budget carrier Jetstar) and Virgin’s duopoly control of the aviation market rising to 98%.
The ACCC analysis found the average domestic air fare increased by 13% after the collapse of Rex flights between capital cities, while the average cheapest economy tickets increased dramatically on routes formerly serviced by Rex: Adelaide-Melbourne jumped 95% to $296; Melbourne-Gold Coast was up 70% to $432; and Canberra-Melbourne rose 54% to $298.
Bridget McKenzie, the opposition transport spokesperson, claimed the cost of flying had “skyrocketed” under Labor.
“In the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, it’s no wonder people are choosing to take the train if they have the time, for reliability at a fraction of the cost,” she said.
“The only reason Qantas and Virgin can jack up prices over the summer holidays is because of the lack of domestic competition. The stranglehold of Qantas and Virgin on Australian skies means Aussie families are unable to enjoy all our country has to offer over the summer holidays,” McKenzie said.
A spokesperson for the transport minister, Catherine King, said “the aviation sector should provide affordable and reliable services that the travelling public deserves” and noted the Albanese government’s reforms to Sydney airport’s slot system.
A Qantas spokesperson said “we are seeing strong demand between Australia’s two largest cities across January”.
“Seats to Melbourne for the tennis have been very popular and, as always, the cheapest fares sell out early.”
A Virgin Australia spokesperson said “fares booked very close to departure dates and times tend to be higher than the average fare, in line with the reduced number of available seats”, noting “this is especially the case around major events and school holidays, when travel demand is highest”.
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