Five days can feel like a lifetime during a transfer window. Even one when nothing material has actually happened yet from a Newcastle United perspective.
On Tuesday night at the Emirates, after the final whistle was blown on Newcastle’s 2-0 win, goalkeeper Martin Dubravka stayed on the pitch, fighting tears as he waved what appeared to be a prolonged and sentimental farewell to the 6,000 travelling Newcastle United fans. Dan Burn even waited and hugged his team-mate, consoling a player who seemed destined to move to Al Shabab in the Saudi Pro League.
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Come Sunday afternoon, after Newcastle recovered from conceding an eighth-minute opening goal against League Two Bromley — one which, arguably, Dubravka could have done better with — to lead 3-1 in their FA Cup third-round tie, the love-in for the Slovakia international began. In the 76th minute, fans in the Gallowgate End chanted, “Oh, Martin Dubravka.”
Supporters almost immediately followed that with more overt imploration: “Martin Dubravka, we want you to stay,” they sang. Just as he had been outwardly emotional at the Emirates, Dubravka did not hide how touched he was by the gesture, appearing to almost nod along in approval.
That reception marks the culmination of a dramatic redrawing of perceptions of the goalkeeper among some sections of the Newcastle fanbase. And all in less than a month.
While Dubravka was seen as being partly culpable for the collapse in Newcastle’s defensive solidity during Nick Pope’s five-month absence last season — the former conceded 1.9 goals per 90 across 2023-24, compared to 1.1 for the latter — he is now being celebrated for his central role in the latest transformation of Eddie Howe’s side.
Since Dubravka came into the team last month, Newcastle have won all eight matches in three competitions and conceded only three goals. He has kept five clean sheets and looked extremely assured during Newcastle’s longest winning run in a top-flight season for 20 years.
“Touch wood, I hope Martin will stay,” Howe said after the win over Bromley. “I don’t think that will change.”
Regardless, what makes Dubravka’s situation all the more curious is that possibly as soon as a week on Saturday at Southampton, he may well find himself back on the bench. And, in all likelihood, this has merely extended Dubravka’s farewell tour by another five months, with a contract extension far from certain.
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Pope is expected to remain as Howe’s established No 1, after all. Although home matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Wednesday and Bournemouth on Saturday are likely to come too soon for Pope, he is on course to return before the end of the month.
That is why, less than a week ago, the soundings were that it was a case of when, rather than if, Dubravka would leave during the present window. Reports in Saudi Arabia had claimed that Dubravka had verbally agreed to make one last appearance against Arsenal before being permitted to depart and, given how he saluted the away fans, there appeared to be veracity to those claims.
However, insiders were quickly cautioning that Dubravka’s actions had been premature.
Howe had insisted to the Newcastle hierarchy that Dubravka was simply too important to be allowed to leave, especially given he is currently playing in a team who has developed an enviable knack for winning. Paul Mitchell had been minded to allow Dubravka to determine his own future, but the sporting director concurs with Howe that the goalkeeper must be persuaded to remain until the end of the season.
The indications are that Dubravka is reluctant to agree a contract extension, but discussions are ongoing to find an appropriate solution, given he is set to be released on June 30 and will forgo a lucrative few months in Saudi if he sees out his deal on Tyneside.
The Dubravka saga actually encapsulates the position Newcastle find themselves in during the present window.
With the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) continuing to constrict their ability to manoeuvre in the market, Newcastle are almost stuck in stasis. Put simply: Dubravka is not the long-term solution in goal.
Howe was even looking to replace him as No 2 last summer, with Burnley’s James Trafford of keen interest. And this was during a window when two other goalkeepers were signed: John Ruddy as a senior third choice (but fourth in the end), and Odysseas Vlachodimos largely out of financial necessity.
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Yet, while Dubravka may not be Howe’s ideal goalkeeper, he trusts the Slovakia international more than the other shot-stoppers he has at his disposal. And, having been forced to hand Loris Karius a debut at Wembley two seasons ago due to a suspension to Pope, and Dubravka being cup-tied, Howe does not want Newcastle to leave themselves at risk of fielding another unfancied goalkeeper in a Carabao Cup final (should they get there).
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There is an interesting debate to be had as to how much Dubravka has benefitted from Newcastle’s recent general defensive improvement and how much he has actually directly contributed towards it.
The statistics below prove that Pope was receiving less protection than Dubravka.
Premier League stats, 2024-25
Metrics (per 90) | With Pope | With Dubravka |
---|---|---|
Goals conceded |
1.4 |
0.2 |
Expected goals against |
1.4 |
0.62 |
Expected goals on target conceded |
1.46 |
0.36 |
Shots on target faced |
4.9 |
1.6 |
Saves |
3.6 |
1.4 |
Yet, although Pope is a more assured shot-stopper, Dubravka is far more accomplished with his feet and that has added a fresh dimension to Newcastle’s play, in and out of possession.
Distribution stats, 2024-25
Metric | Nick Pope | Martin Dubravka |
---|---|---|
Passes attempted |
22.7 |
28.2 |
Successful Passes |
14.4 |
21.8 |
Passing accuracy |
63.3% |
77.3% |
Touches |
36.8 |
35.2 |
That has offered a glimpse into what Newcastle could look like with a Trafford-esque distributor between the sticks and, for Howe’s side to evolve, having a goalkeeper who can play out from the back is an obvious upgrade that can be made.
For now, the focus is very much on the immediate term, though, and Howe’s increasing confidence that Dubravka will see out his deal.
“We’ve had discussions about his future, but I think we’re very relaxed,” Howe said. “He’s never said that he wanted to leave. I don’t expect any major announcement. We hope everything will die down and he will be very much part of our future.”
That ‘future’ probably only extends to June and, with five senior goalkeepers still on their books and Dubravka potentially set for financial remuneration to remain, there may even be (minor) PSR consequences to this decision.
Footballing logic is trumping business logic right now — as some may argue it always should — and it seems Newcastle supporters will get their wish, even despite Dubravka’s emotional goodbye.
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(Top photo: Dubravka acknowledges fans in Newcastle’s match against Bromley; by Stu Forster via Getty Images)
This post was originally published on here