In the past two election cycles, Ohioans backed Republicans for the U.S. Senate who had never before run for office.
In 2022, voters chose Republican J.D. Vance, best known at the time for writing the best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy” book, over Democrat Tim Ryan, a 20-year congressman. Two years after Vance beat Ryan by 6.1%, Vance’s meteoric rise in politics continued as President-elect Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate. In 10 days, Vance will be sworn in as the next vice president of the United States and is the current favorite to be the party’s presidential candidate in 2028.
In the November 2024 election, Republican Bernie Moreno, a successful businessman, beat Democrat Sherrod Brown, an 18-year Senate incumbent, by 3.6%. Moreno was in the 2022 Republican primary for the seat won by Vance, but withdrew right after the filing deadline and never appeared on the ballot until last year.
Can Dr. Amy Acton, who announced last she is running next year as a Democrat for governor in her first political campaign, meet with the same success as Vance and Moreno?
The former Ohio Department of Health director and Youngstown native rose to prominence during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic on daily news conferences as a calming presence. In the past couple of years, she has toured the state delivering speeches and, in 2024, campaigned for statewide Democratic candidates.
While Acton’s profile isn’t as high as it was when she went from an obscure member of Gov. Mike DeWine’s cabinet to our television and computer screens daily to talk about COVID-19, she will certainly be one of the most well-known Democrats to run for governor in a very long time.
Democrats fielded an exceptionally weak group of executive branch candidates in 2022 against Republicans who were all seeking reelection.
That won’t be the case in 2026 though current executive branch Republicans will likely run for different statewide offices during that election.
It’s similar to what happened in 2018.
DeWine went from attorney general to governor and Dave Yost went from auditor to attorney general.
But Democrats had solid candidates for governor, auditor, attorney general and secretary of state. They all lost, but the Republican margins of victory in those four races were between 3.4% and 4.3%.
This was two years after Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 8.1% in Ohio.
Trump became more popular in the 2020 and 2024 elections in Ohio. But if Democrats can find strong candidates for the other executive branch races as well as for the U.S. Senate seat, the possibility of the party being competitive next year exists.
Much of what happens in 2026 will depend on how Ohio voters react to Trump’s second presidency. Oftentimes, the party that controls the White House struggles in midterm elections nationally.
Those who don’t want to be reminded of mask mandates and shutdowns during the pandemic, especially those who opposed them, won’t treat Acton’s candidacy kindly.
Democrats with concerns about Acton’s political inexperience need to understand that the party isn’t going to find anyone else to run for governor with stronger statewide name recognition, except for Brown — and it’s doubtful the former senator would jump into that race. If anything, Brown would seek to return to the Senate next year, and that should be a challenge.
There are many problems with the Democratic Party nationwide and in Ohio.
Democrats haven’t won a single statewide executive branch election since 2008. Since partisan affiliations were added with the 2022 election to Ohio Supreme Court candidates, Democrats have lost all six races.
The Democratic brand is bad. Brown and Ryan have said that on a number of occasions.
Democrats don’t have a bench of candidates who can compete statewide.
Democratic big-city mayors are a poor option because they’ve only run in Democratic strongholds and don’t appeal to Republicans or even independents.
There aren’t dynamic Democratic state legislators though House Minority Leader Allison Russo of Upper Arlington could be a good down-ticket candidate.
Republicans control congressional redistricting and almost certainly will seek to make it harder for incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Emilia Sykes of Akron to retain their positions in next year’s election.
Both are in the most competitive congressional districts in the state and among the most competitive in the country. Kaptur, 78, is the longest serving female congresswoman in U.S. history. Sykes, 39, is the Democrats’ top rising star officeholder.
While Democrats kept it close in 2018, Ohio is now a more solid Republican state with longtime party stronghold counties like Trumbull and Mahoning turning red. Even Brown couldn’t change that despite significantly outperforming Kamala Harris, the party’s failed presidential candidate, in the November election.
David Skolnick is a political writer for the Youngstown Vindicator and Warren Tribune-Chronicle, sister Ogden newspapers with the Columbiana Country newspapers. He can be reached at: [email protected]
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