When Donald Trump takes the oath of office for the second time later this month, he will face a world quite different from eight years ago. In response to more complex global challenges, President-elect Trump seems willing to shift his previous China policy of containment.
In the United States, there is an increasing call for the incoming administration to reassess its strategy toward China. Over the past eight years, the U.S. has failed to achieve its intended outcomes in efforts to contain China in areas such as trade, technology, military and public perception. The trade war, which has endured for more than six years, has neither reduced the U.S. trade deficit with China nor impacted China’s share in global trade. In the first 11 months of 2024, total value of China’s goods imports and exports surpassed 39.79 trillion yuan ($5.6 trillion). Its exports rose 6.7 percent year on year during this period to 23.04 trillion yuan ($3.24 trillion), while imports climbed 2.4 percent to 16.75 trillion yuan ($2.36 trillion).
Sanctions and restrictions on Chinese companies, including tech titan Huawei, drone industry leader DJI, and technology firm ByteDance, have not forced these companies to capitulate; rather, they have enhanced their global recognition. Export controls on advanced U.S. chips have only fortified China’s determination to independently develop its semiconductor industry. Last December, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo publicly stated that the U.S. efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology had not hindered China’s progress, asserting that attempting to impede China in the semiconductor race also ended up being a fool’s errand.
The U.S. has also waged a global war of public opinion against China, both by attempting to demonize it for what it asserts are human rights issues and also by scaremongering about what China’s rise will mean for the rest of the world. In response, China has implemented a policy granting visa-free stays of up to 30 days for passport holders from 38 countries and visa-free transit for up to 240 hours to passport holders of 54 countries, primarily Western nations. According to statistics released by China’s National Immigration Administration, from January to November 2024, the number of foreign nationals entering China through its ports of entry reached 29.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.2 percent. Numerous videos depicting China’s real situation have been shared on international social media, assisting many false rumors to fall apart on their own.
Has the U.S. strategy toward China failed? This question has been raised for some time. In fact, as early as 2017, the Trump administration abandoned the U.S.-China strategic engagement that had been in place since the 1970s. The strategy aimed to engage China through diplomacy, trade, science and educational and cultural exchanges, encourage political reforms in China and thus integrate it into the U.S.-led international system.
China’s development has surpassed expectations, even those of the Chinese people themselves. China becomes the world’s second largest consumer market and the leading trading partner of over 130 countries. The rapid economic growth also fueled advancements in China’s culture, technology and military, while strengthening the confidence of its people.
Looking at the outcomes over the past eight years, it is clear that this strategy has backfired. It not only brought China-U.S. relations to a historical low but also had a significant negative impact on both the U.S. and the world.
If humanity as a whole benefits from technological and economic progress in the 21st century, with the global wealth gap narrowing and living standards improving, it is clear that the development of China and other developing countries is driving the global economy. China is willing to be a force for maintaining global peace and stability, so for the U.S., its previous containment strategy toward China may be erred by the root. As Trump secures another term, he’ll have a fresh chance to correct past missteps.
Copyedited by G.P. Wilson
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