In his final weeks as Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall warned lawmakers that artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in shaping future global conflicts.
Earlier this week, Kendall released the Department of the Air Force 2050 report, a congressionally mandated report required by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, which offers a detailed forecast of the technological and security trends expected to shape the Air and Space Force by 2050.
In the opening of his report, Kendall emphasizes that developing an accurate or effective roadmap for the department’s future is impossible, as the technology and security landscape will constantly evolve over the next 25 years.
However, one thing is clear to Kendall: “In both the air and space domains, decision dominance will depend on AI technologies.”
“Today, the United States is in a race for military technological superiority with China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. There is no indication that this situation in 2050 will be significantly different,” the document reads.
“Victory or defeat in the air or in space at the human scale is likely to be determined by which combatant has fielded the most advanced AI technology in the areas most crucial to achieving victory,” Kendall writes.
Kendall acknowledges that although the full extent of AI’s progress over the next 25 years is uncertain, the Department of the Air Force is already investigating high-impact military applications that will expand over time. He emphasizes that well before 2050, advanced decision-making and decision-support tools will be essential to numerous military functions, significantly improving operational effectiveness and strategic planning.
However, Kendall explained that one significant obstacle standing in the way of the United States winning this tech race is a cultural apprehension toward the rapid expansion of AI technology.
“Often the significance of a new technology is not fully appreciated or grasped until it is employed in combat. Even then, the resistance to change can be severe,” he says.
One of the key reasons for this apprehension is the biases and potential threats associated with AI technology.
To address this, Kendall recommends that instead of slowing down innovation or AI advancement, the department must align its efforts with the nation’s values. He emphasizes, however, that this requires the force to “work harder to maintain a competitive advantage in this area, both despite, and because of, the fact that adversaries may not respect these norms and values.”
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