The impact of population growth on elections
FOX 13’s Allie Corey reports on how Florida’s population growth has affected the state’s politics and its national political influence and why that trend is not expected to stop.
FLORIDA, Fla. – More people are moving to Florida, and that’s evident in the traffic on highways and in the housing market.
‘For sale’ sign.
The Census Bureau found that more people are leaving states like California and New York and choosing to move to the Sunshine State and Texas.
Why Florida?
The backstory:
Lower taxes, good weather and a growing job market make those states look good for future residents.
“Florida is one of the top two in the country for continued growth rates,” said Dr. Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida.
Map of Florida’s Congressional districts.
The 2020 Census showed more people were moving South and away from states like California and New York.
“For the first time, California actually lost population in the Census, and other states lost population and actually lost a (congressional) seat or two,” MacManus explained.
The political impact of population shifts
What they’re saying:
It could be similar in the 2030 Census. With the population shift, political influence is moving with it.
“States who lose competitiveness do lose an advantage with state and local races the parties support at the national level,” MacManus replied. “We are already seeing more of that as well, and it makes it hard for parties to recruit candidates to run.”
According to MacManus, this could have implications for future elections.
A sign to fill out the 2020 Census.
“Obviously, it will make a big difference when we have the next Census,” MacManus said. “Seats in the U.S. House are contingent on size of population,” MacManus said. “We’ve already seen some states lose a seat in 2020 Census, and there are more that will lose seats in 2030.”
MacManus says that Florida “may pick up another one or two [seats]” because of these population shifts.
How did it impact the 2024 election?
Dig deeper:
MacManus explained there were already signs of this happening in the November election.
“Economic growth in areas about exceeded those in the Old Rust Belt. It showed in the Electoral College votes President-Elect Donald Trump got,” MacManus said.
2024 Presidential Election electoral map.
“His popular vote was affected by people moving to redder states, so he won the Electoral College vote and the popular vote,” she continued.
“He did not win the popular vote in 2016; a lot of that is because of the population shift in redder areas,” MacManus finished.
What’s next:
That could mean a change in strategy from both parties in the future.
“What both parties must do is continually take a look at what people are moving in and out of the area to get a feel for that constituency base and what it looks like when it is time to campaign,” Dr. MacManus said.
The Source: The information for this story came from the United States Census Bureau and USF political science professor Dr. Susan MacManus.
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