How a second Trump presidency could impact Washington state

SEATTLE — Despite Washington state being a reliably blue state in the U.S., the effects of a second presidential term for Donald Trump could be felt in new ways.

Decisions made during his presidency will be felt in our region, from immigration to the economy and jobs. We’re digging into the Trump effect on Washington state in a second term, what the next four years will look like and if the President can accomplish his agenda.

He’s only the second man to ever win the presidency twice in two separate terms, and his administration seems poised to hit the ground running in a way the U.S. did not see the first time around.

Let’s first take a look at the election results for a quick reminder of where we stand. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won Washington state’s 12 electoral votes a margin of 57 to 39%, but Trump managed to gain a larger share of the vote in 2024 than he did in 2020 and in 2016. In fact, Washington state, reliably blue year over year, saw the electorate shift to the right compared to previous elections.

Trump will also be going into his second term with a Republican-controlled House and Senate securing the highly coveted government trifecta.

KING 5’s Jake Whittenberg dives into the Trump effect in a new KING 5+ special. In it, KING 5 political analysts Gary Locke and Rob McKenna help break down what a second Trump term will mean for Washington state.

McKenna is a former Washington attorney general and Republican candidate for governor, and Locke served two terms as governor for the state of Washington as a Democrat and also served as U.S. Secretary of Commerce under President Barack Obama and U.S. Ambassador to China.

President-elect Trump is threatening to increase tariffs on imported foreign goods, much like he did in his first term. Washington state is especially vulnerable to tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Those three countries are the state’s largest trading partners.

A non-partisan analysis by economists found these tariffs could cost a typical American household between $1,700 and $6,000 per year.

The Washington Council on International Trade indicates China traded goods valued at more than $20 billion through Washington state in 2023.  That’s nearly 30% of the value of all goods imported and exported through the ports of Seattle and Tacoma.

The trade council also suggests that tariffs can trigger inflation, supply chain disruptions, job losses and retaliatory tariffs, and if there was one other point, it is the housing crisis in Washington state.

Last year, the Biden administration had the U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber nearly double. President-elect Trump threatened to double that again if he takes office. The Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) said that could further stifle home building in our state, where supply is already among the worst in the nation.

Greg Lane with the BIAW said his team is working to loosen up regulations, which he said is the biggest driver of the housing crisis, but noted that the Trump administration needs to start thinking about the cost of lumber as well.

“Tariffs will have huge ramifications and could create retaliation from China,” said Locke. “Boeing did not have a single order for airplanes to China during the first Trump administration because of those tariffs.”

Republicans argue that Trump’s tariff proposals are merely a negotiating tool aimed at forcing countries to make concessions to the incoming administration on issues such as immigration and drug trafficking.

“They’re not just about economic policy. They are an important foreign policy tool,” said McKenna. “Tariffs are a blunt instrument for (Trump) and a very powerful weapon. We are less dependent as a nation on exports as those countries are.”

Immigration is a top priority for President-elect Trump, and he promised to deport millions of immigrants lacking permanent legal status across the nation. We still don’t know what the impact may be here in western Washington, but new Attorney General Nick Brown said his office is ready to respond.

RELATED: Ferguson, Brown discuss preparations for second Trump admin

“There’s obviously bipartisan agreement that if a person is arrested who is undocumented, here illegally, but arrested for a very serious crime, that person should be deported,” Locke said. “But to deport millions of people will be very, very difficult. It will take away from the duties and the focus of law enforcement solving crimes. But also, more importantly, we don’t have the capacity in the state of Washington, any of our jails or federal institutions, to house even 10,000 undocumented individuals who might be rounded up by the federal.”

When it comes to H-1B visas, many of the tech companies headquartered in Washington state rely on these visas to bring workers to the United States.

“These are people who have been approved by the U.S. government to come, and the problem is that in many of our tech industries across the nation, and especially in the state of Washington, there are not enough people trained in engineering and the computer sciences to fill these jobs,” Locke said. “So instead of hurting these companies by excluding needed high tech skilled workers, I mean we as a state and as a country need to be educating more of our own people into science and technology and computer sciences so that we don’t have to rely on people from another country.”

Gov. Bob Ferguson famously sued the Trump administration 99 times while he was the attorney general, including over the first Trump administration’s Muslim travel ban.

“I think the Trump administration is going to be much better prepared this time than they were coming in in Trump’s first term, when they issued the Muslim travel ban and other executive orders that weren’t very well thought out legally,” said McKenna. “I think Trump’s going to focus on closing down illegal immigration across the border, not just on deporting people who are already here.”

Watch the full wide ranging Trump effect roundtable discussion with Gary Locke and Rob McKenna below.