ANALYSIS: As Trump assumes office, should Nigeria be worried?

Donald Trump has been sworn in for a second term as president of the United States, and with his return comes an overhaul of the country’s governance, including its policies at home and abroad.

Unpredictability is Mr Trump’s hallmark, leaving the world on edge as he begins his second presidential term.

Aside from his electoral victory, the Republican Party’s control of the Senate and the House of Representatives gives Mr Trump the power to implement his agenda. With a Congress aligned with his priorities and a conservative-leaning Supreme Court, Mr Trump’s administration is expected to face minimal institutional resistance in enacting its policies.

His “America First” foreign policy, which essentially defined his previous administration, will likely continue. The policy focuses on American interests while sidelining global cooperation. His past record as president and his statements during the campaign have raised fears and concerns in many parts of the world.

In Nigeria, many citizens and analysts have raised concerns about his immigration and potential trade and vaccination plans.

Travel Ban

At the forefront of President Trump’s policies is the crackdown on immigration.

During the 2024 election, the president vowed to begin his second term by controlling legal migration and deporting those in the US without legal status.

In his first term (from 2017 to 2021), Mr Trump entered the White House intending to reduce legal immigration by 63 per cent and was wildly successful in this goal.

His efforts were multifaceted, with a travel ban being one of the most prominent actions. This policy, initially issued as an executive order, restricted entry to the United States for citizens of several predominantly Muslim-majority countries, such as Libya, Syria and Yemen.

He later expanded the ban to include Nigeria and some other African countries. The travel ban was overturned in 2021 after Joe Biden became president.

However, President Trump has vowed to reinstate his travel ban. Some experts have said Nigeria is likely to be one of the countries to be affected.

A professor of foreign policy at Obafemi Awolowo University, Femi Mimiko, told PREMIUM TIMES that Nigeria can expect President Donald Trump’s second administration to be generally unfavourable politically and economically.

The president, according to him, has scant respect for the continent, referring to it “as made up of shithole countries that he would rather keep out of the US.

“Things are going to be a bit rough for Nigerian and African ‘illegal immigrants,’ because, shorn of all facade, much of the vituperations from Mr Trump on illegal immigration are directed at people of colour,” he stated.

Vaccine production

President Trump’s second-term cabinet appointments highlight his penchant for making unconventional and polarising choices.

One such was the appointment of Robert Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services: a man whose views health officials have described as dangerous to public health.

If the nomination is confirmed by Congress, Mr Kennedy will head the agency that oversees everything related to health, including drugs, vaccines, food safety, medical research, and medical aid in the US.

However, Mr Kennedy is one of the world’s most influential anti-vaccine campaigners. His nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services raised significant concerns about vaccine production and healthcare due to his long-standing scepticism about vaccine safety and efficacy.

He has consistently questioned the safety and efficacy of routine vaccines, including those for hepatitis B and influenza. Additionally, he has propagated a debunked claim linking the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine to autism – a theory rooted in flawed research from the 1990s.

The study, authored by Andrew Wakefield, was later discredited, retracted, and deemed fraudulent, leading to Mr Wakefield losing his medical license. Subsequent scientific investigations have repeatedly confirmed that there is no connection between the MMR vaccine and autism.

Mr Kennedy also referred to the Covid vaccine as “the deadliest vaccine ever made,” despite data showing it is overwhelmingly safe.

The US has been a key player in global health initiatives, providing vaccines through organisations like GAVI, the Global Fund, and USAID; with Nigeria being a major beneficiary of such vaccines.

For instance, in 2024, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) donated 10,000 doses of the Mpox vaccine to Nigeria to aid the country’s efforts in managing the ongoing Mpox outbreak. This donation came shortly after Nigeria received four million doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine from the US.

In 2021, Nigeria received approximately 3.6 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, further highlighting the critical role the US plays in Nigeria’s vaccination initiatives.

A shift in US health policy can affect vaccine supplies to countries like Nigeria, especially if it undermines vaccine trust or reduces funding for international health programmes.

Global oil production

Aside from this, President Trump has also promised to sign an executive order declaring a national energy emergency.

He aims to boost US oil and gas production and lower costs for US consumers.

According to experts, if the U.S. ramps up its oil output, it could potentially lower global oil prices and weaken OPEC’s ability to control pricing through production cuts or quotas, as the market would become more competitive with US oil flooding the market.

Oil accounts for a large percentage of Nigeria’s export revenue and national income, and as such, a sustained decrease in global prices could undermine government budgets, disrupt foreign exchange reserves, and lead to higher fiscal deficits.

However, Yinka Tella, spokesperson for the Nigerians in Diaspora organisation (NiDO), said US oil production is unlikely to affect global trade.

According to him, the US is not concerned about oil exports but is more focused on producing enough oil for domestic use.

He said, “The US is not really into exports. The country is more concerned with producing enough for domestic consumption and storing it for rainy days. So, essentially, it cannot affect OPEC.

“Also, Nigeria’s oil industry has changed with the establishment of the Dangote refinery and other private refineries that are in the way.

“Over time, we might not have much to export anymore,” he added.

The AGOA agreement

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been a significant source of support for African countries, allowing them to export goods to the United States duty-free and quota-free.

However, there is a growing concern that these benefits could be eliminated or significantly modified when the law is to be renewed later this year.

According to experts, the trade pact, which allows duty-free, quota-free access for African exports to the US, may face significant hurdles under the new administration.

For Nigeria, it has provided unhindered market access to the USA, but Mr Trump now demands reciprocity in trade. He has asked that African countries consider opening their markets to more American goods in exchange for continued benefits under the AGOA.

According to the Council of Foreign Relations, this could flood the continent with cheap American goods. In a report, the non-profit said the new president’s current language suggests that the trade programme, introduced in 2000 under former president Bill Clinton, is set to undergo a radical transformation.

“The prospect of a protectionist trade agenda underscored by sweeping tariffs is proving a significant concern for many governments, and none—ally or otherwise—are seemingly safe. This growing anxiety raises questions about the possible scenarios facing Africans,” the report read.

According to Mr Mimiko, Mr Trump’s second term will generally be unfavourable politically and economically for Nigeria and Africa.

He said that although his focus would be on undercutting China worldwide, including in Africa, President Trump might be “unwilling to offer some of the developmental goodies” that China will be more willing to provide.

“Trump would latch onto bullying tactics. However, this may not work. This is why it is apposite and commendable that Nigeria has taken partner membership in BRICS, one organisation that promises to be a veritable bulwark against the imminent harassment of weaker nations of the Global South by the Trump administration.

“Beyond this, I expect the Trump administration to be generally noisy and unhinged, especially in its first two years – before the midterm elections.

“But by and large, my hunch is that American democratic institutions are going to hold up and frustrate many of the hifalutin but impracticable ideas Trump has been banding around,” he said.

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