We are halfway through winter and after an exceptionally warm start, North America’s winter is transitioning toward more predictable patterns with La Niña. As La Niña’s presence becomes dominant, businesses must recalibrate to anticipate more typical patterns. From supply chain logistics to energy demand, La Niña’s hallmark traits: colder conditions in the north, warmer and drier weather in the south, and a wetter Pacific Northwest, will shape decision-making for the rest of winter.
Early Winter Review
This winter started exceptionally warm across the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature 5.6°F above normal, ranking as the fourth warmest December on record. These early-season anomalies were influenced by short-term atmospheric conditions or residual effects from El Niño-neutral phases.
But we did see a series of fires, floods, and major storms that disrupted weather-sensitive industries in January. This week, even Florida, Louisiana, and Texas felt the Arctic chill with record-breaking snow. This was due to disturbances forming along the boundary between the cold polar air and the relatively warm air to the south. The coldest anomalies on the planet were located over the U.S. in January.
Average temperature anomalies globally for Jan 1-21 in Celsius degrees.
Understanding La Niña’s Influence On Weather Patterns
La Niña occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter atmospheric circulation. This cooling strengthens the polar jet stream and shifts it northward, leading to distinct winter weather patterns across the United States. The Pacific Northwest experiences cooler, wetter conditions with heavy mountain snowfall. The southern United States faces warmer, drier weather, while the Midwest and Northeast see an increased risk of cold snaps and snowstorms due to polar air intrusions. While these patterns are familiar, their intensity and timing can create challenges for weather-sensitive businesses, and the degree, or strength, of the La Niña event is also a key factor in the weather severity.
The midwinter forecast shows the effects of La Niña across the country with colder conditions in the … [+]
Regional Impacts
After the record warm December, much of North America is under the grip of some of the coldest air in years, and while this will gradually moderate the rest of the month, we are seeing the coldest air of the winter. As we move into February the source of this frigid air will retreat northward, and much milder air will spread across most of the country.
The southern United States, experiencing historic cold and snow this week, can expect warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation as we move into February, creating mixed impacts. Dry conditions will worsen drought conditions in Texas and the Southwest, threatening winter crops and water supplies. Unfortunately, no significant rain is expected during the rest of this winter season for southern California, as La Niña does not favor storms tracking that far south.
The good news for this area is the expected patterns also do not favor significant Santa Ana events, the primary driver of the deadly January fires. Additionally, dry weather could set the stage for early wildfire activity elsewhere across the Southwest states.
The Pacific Northwest will see increased coastal rain and mountain snows as we move into the rest of the winter, however extended “atmospheric river” events are not likely.
The Midwest and Great Lakes region are likely to face frequent cold snaps and an increased chance for winter storms compared to earlier in the season. While these conditions could boost businesses in snow removal, winter recreation, and heating, they present significant challenges. Snow and ice can disrupt trucking, rail, and air freight, delaying shipments and increasing costs. Higher heating demands will strain natural gas supplies and infrastructure, with potential price volatility.
The Northeast will experience alternating periods of mild and harsh weather. Snowstorms followed by rapid thaws could impact energy demand unpredictably, complicating forecasting for utilities, cause flooding in urban areas due to snowmelt and rain.
The midwinter forecast shows the effects of La Niña across the country
Implications For Key Sectors
In the energy sector, increased demand in colder regions may drive up prices and strain supply chains for natural gas. Hydropower in the Northwest could benefit from higher precipitation, while solar energy in the South might see reduced productivity due to cloud cover. Energy providers should plan for demand surges and explore diversified energy sources to ensure resilience and proper balancing.
Lingering cold in the Northeast can cause significant disruptions to surface transportation and aviation, with icy roads leading to hazardous driving conditions and flight delays or cancellations due to deicing requirements and low visibility. Businesses should collaborate with logistics providers that adapt to weather challenges and consider stockpiling inventory to mitigate the effects of these delays. Preparing now will help them be ready to navigate the months ahead with confidence and success.
By leveraging advanced weather intelligence, adopting flexible strategies, and building resilience into their operations, organizations can mitigate risks, reduce downtime, and remain agile. Preparing now ensures they are ready to navigate the months ahead with confidence and success.
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