The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of its 2024 business climate analysis, based on surveys of entrepreneurs across the republic. Based on the data obtained, a business climate indicator was developed, which characterizes current assessments of the business environment and their expectations.
The Business Climate change indicator is based on the methodology of the Ifo Institute (Germany). During the surveys, business leaders assess current and expected changes in business activity based on the dynamics of production, demand, prices, and other indicators.
Summary of Business Climate
Throughout the year, the composite business climate indicator demonstrated variability, with an annual average of 53 points (on a scale from -100 to +100), reflecting a generally positive business environment in Uzbekistan.
The highest values were recorded in January at 61 points, while the lowest were observed in October at 42 points, mainly due to a decline in industrial performance, which dropped from 72 to 31 points.
Meanwhile, from May to September, there was a recovery in optimistic business expectations. During this period, indicators in the industrial and agricultural sectors improved significantly, reaching their peak levels of 63–66 points. By the end of the year, all sectors showed increased optimism, as evidenced by the index value of 56 points.
Current Business Conditions
The annual average index of current business conditions stood at 39 points, indicating an increase in positive perceptions among enterprises.
Survey data reveal that the highest proportion of respondents rating current business conditions as “good” was in September, reaching 45%, compared to 37% in July.
Sectoral analysis highlights agriculture as the most confident sector, with nearly half of enterprises rating their current business conditions as “good.” In contrast, only a quarter of construction companies expressed confidence in their current operations.
Business Expectations
In 2024, optimistic business assessments remained consistently high, with an annual average of 68 points. Business expectations across agriculture, industry, construction, and services ranged from 70 to 60 points.
Positive forecasts regarding demand over the next three months varied between 74% and 57%.
Price expectations fluctuated throughout the year, peaking in April and reaching a low in July, with an annual average of 25%.
Current Business Challenges
Over the year, there was a gradual reduction in barriers to doing business. According to a survey by the CERR, 54% of entrepreneurs reported no difficulties in conducting business. The share of respondents claiming no obstacles increased from 50% in January–July to 62% in the last quarter of 2024.
Overall, there has been a decline in several business challenges compared to the previous year. For example: concerns about financing decreased from 15% to 13%. Issues with land allocation dropped from 7% to 4%.
In the industrial sector, challenges related to financing decreased by 5%, power supply by 3%, and land allocation by 4%. The proportion of respondents concerned about financing peaked at 24% in March but dropped to 5% by October, indicating a significant improvement in the sector.
In agriculture, water supply remains a key issue, with concerns averaging around 10% over the year. At the beginning of the year, 20% of respondents identified this as a problem, but by year-end, this figure fell to 6%. Despite temporary fluctuations, the overall trend suggests gradual improvement in water supply for agriculture.
In the construction sector, insufficient demand remains a barrier. At the start of the year, 9% of respondents cited this issue, but by March, it dropped to 2% and stood at 3% in December. Short-term spikes in concern about demand may reflect market recovery and the sector’s adaptation to changing conditions.
In the service sector, 58% of enterprises reported no obstacles to business operations, consistent with 2023 levels. However, 11% noted financing challenges, 6% cited high tax rates, and 5% mentioned power supply issues.
The sector for the study of the banking and financial sector
tel: (78)150 02 02 (441)
Public Relations and Media Sector
tel: (78)150 02 02 (417)
This post was originally published on here
