There are numerous security challenges upcoming in 2025. Terrorist and domestic violent extremism offenses are likely to continue to be primarily carried out by so-called “lone wolves.” These are individuals acting alone without direction from a terrorist or violent extremist group. They are, however, hardly lonely, as they have usually immersed themselves online in violent content and often have carefully studied the manifestos, actions, successes and mistakes of those who went before, and aim to emulate and outshine them while playing to an imaginary audience via the internet.
We also can expect an uptick in violent extremist propaganda in 2025 as we now see some violent extremist rhetoric and ideas having mainstreamed into politics. Facebook, for one, has removed its fact checkers, making it even easier for vulnerable individuals to fall down the terrorist and violent-extremist rabbit hole to emerge as lone, violent actors.
Many thought the Islamic State of Iraq and Syra (ISIS) was defeated but the truth is they have a similar number of fighters still active in Syria and Iraq as they originally did, and they may become stronger if chaos reigns in Syria. Moreover, if Turkey wins the debate about trying to force the Syrian Democratic Forces to disarm and let Damascus or Arab forces take over the ISIS prisons and camps, there may be escapes, abuse of prisoners or an opportunity for ISIS cadres to storm in. In his last presidency, Trump signaled to Erdogan to invade northeastern Syria to take control of a “border” zone resulting in the displacement of Christians and Kurds by the Turkish-backed Syrian fighters, many who had previously been with ISIS. During this incursion, one of the camps holding ISIS family members was bombarded and many ISIS members were able to escape. We should avoid this repeating itself.
The end of 2024 also brought two violent incidents carried out by former and active duty U.S. military members, one inspired by ISIS, and the other involving an explosion and suicide carried out by Matthew Livelsberger, an active duty Green Beret, who signaled a deep concern that the country is taking a wrong turn and will collapse. As both President Trump and Elon Musk are known for turning a deaf ear to and have, at times, even fueled white supremacist rhetoric, these second kind of attacks are likely to continue to occur. Having interviewed various U.S. vets who feel the same as Livelsberger, and listening to conservatives talk about a coming civil war, we should all be concerned about the ready availability of assault rifles and other means of attack. Likewise, ISIS is well known for blanketing the web with its propaganda and then love-bombing those who respond to it, often encouraging them to travel or carry out attacks at home on behalf of the group. The stronger ISIS and its affiliates become in its recent resurgence in Syria and with ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), and the more vulnerable individuals are available to prey upon we will continue to see ISIS attacks.
The war in Gaza with the U.S.’s continued support of Israel’s bombardments, which Amnesty International has recently labeled as genocidal, will continue to fuel militant jihadist recruitment among U.S. Muslim populations as well as globally. Jewish institutions and Jewish people themselves will be the likely targets. Likewise, violent extremist protests on universities have already resulted in various violent attacks as well as hate crimes being carried out by anti-war protestors and in response to them. President Trump’s recent executive order canceling UNRWA funding and sanctions on Israeli settlers who are known for their violence, and indications of likely support to continue to arm Israel are troubling signs that, despite the fragile ceasefire, we may see the war in Gaza resume shortly. This bodes for increasing militant jihadist recruitment and terrorists viewing the U.S. as an enemy state that should be attacked in retribution for the high civilian death toll in Gaza.
2025 also will maintain a continuation of the age of disinformation and this will only expand as artificial intelligence is used by good and bad actors alike. Terrorist groups, including ISIS-K, have already created fake news anchors to distribute their propaganda online to look as though it is legitimate news. Likewise, states, Russia in particular, continue to spew disinformation that creates confusion and divisions among us.
Leadership that unifies the country, and brings about prosperity for all and feelings of hope, will be called upon in the next year but is unlikely to materialize. If there are trade wars and price increases, we may find the lower rung of society increasingly in despair and angered, with their rage likely directed toward the most vulnerable in our society. Likewise, given President Trump likes to have a bogeyman, his rhetoric may fuel attacks. In the past, we saw violent extremism enacted upon Asians as he ranted about COVID coming from China. Now he has turned his ranting to illegal immigrants, transgender individuals and the LGBTQ community, which may increase attacks upon them.
Moreover, the pardons and commuting of sentences for those involved in the January 6th riots is likely to breathe new life back into groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, both of whose leaders were convicted of seditious conspiracy. The Oath Keepers had even arranged for weapons to be brought to locations around Washington, DC, in hopes that then President Trump would invoke the insurrection act and call upon them for support to continue in office. Clearly now the message is those who engaged in violence, even violence against the police, are going free. While DC police feel betrayed by these actions, domestic violent extremists across the country will be emboldened to act violently for what they perceive as the President’s agenda, which has included a call by him to punish former President Joe Biden and others who acted against him.
Cyber and critical infrastructure attacks also are likely with previous attempts to physically attack our electric grid, train system and bring down various cyber systems already having occurred in the past year. These will inevitably be repeated, and we need safeguards in place to prevent them being successful.
At the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE), we agree with the 2025 Department of Homeland Security report stating that “the terrorism threat environment in the United States over the next year will remain high due to a confluence of factors. These factors include violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments and the 2024 election cycle, the enduring intent of FTOs [foreign terrorist organizations] to conduct or inspire attacks in the Homeland, and the galvanizing effect that successful terrorist attacks abroad and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have had on a range of violent actors.” Much as we can, we need to work toward national unity and prosperity; increasing mental health support to vulnerable individuals, including military veterans; decreasing disinformation, and violent extremist and terrorist recruiting propaganda; degrading terrorist groups and rooting out violent extremists serving on police forces; and diminishing hate crimes in campus protests and elsewhere. Only by unifying and standing strong as a nation can we prevent and defeat domestic violent extremists among us and terrorist groups working to harm us from abroad.
This post was originally published on here
