ES Foundry is a rarity in America. When it opened the doors of a new factory in South Carolina earlier this year, it became the second solar cell producer in the United States.
The question is whether there will be more.
Clean energy manufacturers lined up for tax credits offered by former President Joe Biden’s climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. But the future of those credits are now in doubt as President Donald Trump pushes to slash climate programs and impose tariffs on imported goods.
Those moves have cast a shadow over America’s burgeoning manufacturing sector by slowing investments in battery, solar and wind plants and increasing skepticism about the country’s ability to compete with China for clean energy supremacy, according to analysts and manufacturers.
“If the policy doesn’t change, I think the U.S. solar future will be pretty good,” said Alex Zhu, the chief executive of ES Foundry, before adding, “It’s really very risky right now.”
Companies like South Carolina’s ES Foundry underscore the stakes. The U.S. stopped making solar cells in 2019 after a Georgia company named Suniva closed its factory. The facility reopened last year, putting Suniva and ES Foundry at the forefront of what advocates hope will become a revival of U.S. solar manufacturing. Two more companies are expected to open new cell factories this year. That, along with an explosion in U.S. solar module production, which rose nearly 200 percent last year, according to Wood Mackenzie, represent progress for an American industry that nearly disappeared in the last decade.
Yet the U.S. solar revival remains iffy.
Cell manufacturing is an expensive and complicated business, with U.S. demand for cells far outstripping domestic supply. Analysts say the country’s new cell factories will likely remain reliant on imports of key subcomponents like wafers and polysilicon.
Trump’s push to end climate-related spending injects political uncertainty into efforts to expand the U.S. solar supply chain.
“We’re at a crossroads,” said Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of trade and supply chains at BloombergNEF. “What’s happening now is basically going to be a good indicator of whether or not onshoring is actually a thing or not.”
The trend is not limited to solar. Fewer than half of the factories that were expected to come online this year to make components for solar, wind, electric vehicle and batteries are expected to open on time, according to estimates by BNEF, a consulting firm.
The political challenges from the Trump administration are coming as efforts to build a clean energy supply chain in the U.S. were already facing hurdles, according to analysts. A slowdown in China’s economy means its domestic clean energy manufacturing capacity far exceeds Chinese demand. That could result in a wave of Chinese exports, putting downward pressure on global prices for solar panels, batteries and electric vehicle components, making it harder for U.S. companies to compete.
“In terms of manufacturing, I actually think it was always quite fragile. The international market environment was always very difficult,” said Vagneur-Jones. “There was a lot of bluster and a lot of celebrating the extremely early stage of just getting a bunch of announcements done, as if that was the end-all-be-all. I think we’re waking up to the fact that that wasn’t the whole picture.”
Trump has compounded those concerns by promoting tariffs and promising to cut tax credits for manufacturers, while also signaling that he may impose restrictions on foreign investment, particularly from China. Those curbs could stunt U.S. clean energy manufacturing. BNEF estimates that Chinese firms account for 11 percent of planned U.S. battery production and 7 percent of planned solar production.
The impact is already becoming evident. Companies have canceled almost $8 billion in clean manufacturing projects so far in 2025, up from $1.6 billion over all of 2024, said Tom Taylor, an analyst at Atlas Public Policy. Canceled projects include a transmission cable factory in Massachusetts for the offshore wind sector, a battery factory in Arizona and an electric vehicle component facility in Georgia.
Trump’s policies alone don’t explain those decisions. The Prysmian Group’s plans for a cable factory at the site of a former coal plant in Massachusetts, for instance, faced significant local opposition. The EV component-maker, Aspen Aerogels, said it believed it could serve market demand from its existing facility in Rhode Island.
But Trump has made the outlook for those industries even less certain, by pledging to rollback tax credits for electric vehicles and imposing a moratorium on new wind projects sited in federal waters. Northeastern states had hoped offshore wind projects would provide a massive injection of carbon-free power and lead to the construction of factories that make turbine towers, foundations and blades. Those prospects now look grim.
“I think there will be very limited interest at the moment to invest into a market where it’s very insecure. What will happen next day,” asked Tim Fischer, a vice president at Ramboll, an offshore wind consulting firm. “This now will delay things. Of course, the U.S. will then have to push even more in a few years to just attract investment back into the country. It will not be easy.”
The Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping climate law signed by Biden, contains incentives for renewable energy developers to buy American components and tax credits for manufacturers to produce parts in the United States. Many analysts expect those tax credits could largely remain in place, particularly after a group of congressional Republicans penned a letter last week in support of the credits.
But clean energy companies said they are watching Congress closely before signing off on new investments. Heliene, a Canadian solar-panel-maker, has plans to partner with an Indian company to build a U.S. cell factory. But the company is holding off on making the investment until it’s clear that Congress won’t rescind the IRA tax credits, said CEO Martin Pochtaruk.
“I need to ensure that the rug is not pulled from under my feet,” he said.
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