Trump’s tariffs: Taking the edge off at a 200-year-old New York tavern

US Correspondent Logan Church visited New York’s oldest bar for a pint and a conversation about operating a small business in America, on the eve of Donald Trump’s “liberation day”. He found many don’t expect it will be quite so liberating.

Nine years before the Treaty of Waitangi was signed, the first pint was poured at Neir’s Tavern, in Queens New York.

The establishment was originally opened to service the crowds that would descend on the nearby Union course racetrack, where champion horses from across America would race.

Much later in its life, the tavern became a star in its own right, featuring in movies, such as Martin Scorsese’s 1990s film Goodfellas — 14% of it was filmed at the bar.

Ben Stiller was filmed here for Tower Heist, as well as scenes for Law and Order.

Over its almost 200-year history the bar has also dealt with economic headwinds from everything from the Great Depression to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

For owner, Loycent Gordon, even more challenging waters lay ahead for the historic tavern.

“What will the 200th anniversary of Neir’s Tavern look like in 2029? Will there be a Neir’s Tavern? I hope there will be. I can’t answer that question right now,” he said.

In a time of much economic uncertainty across the globe, the biggest worry for many was the impact of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs.

The extent of how far these go were expected to be revealed tomorrow at a White House event, which has been called: “Make America Wealthy Again.”

Tariffs formed a core part of his economic policy ahead of the 2024 election, with the president saying they will make trade fairer for the United States, bring in income for the United States government. This, he promised, would result in drastic tax cuts for Americans.

Exactly what countries would be hit and how high the tariffs would be was still unknown – although it’s been reported here that President Trump favours at least a 20% tariff across all countries (including New Zealand).

Trump has already used these tools against Canada and Mexico, resulting in the beginnings of a North American trade war.

“Those days of America, beginning tomorrow, being ripped off are over,” said White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt at today’s White House press briefing.

“The president’s historic action tomorrow will improve American competitiveness in every area of industry. Reduce our massive trade deficits and ultimately protect our economic and national security…America will offer companies the lowest taxes, energy costs, and regulations if they make their products right here in the United States and hire American workers for the job.

“It’s simple: If you make your product in America, you will pay no tariffs.”

But many in the US are worried it would simply make life even more unaffordable for Americas. Tariffs effectively work as a tax on imported goods – a cost that would have to be covered by the US importer — and likely be handed down to the consumer.

Tariffs are no small beer

This point was reinforced by Bill Butcher, the owner of Port City Brewing. He spoke to reporters outside the US Capitol in Washington DC, clutching a six-pack of his beer. The primary ingredient, he said, was Canadian pilsner malt which needed to be grown in the cold climate of Canada.

“If there’s a 25% tariff on this basic ingredient, it’s going to slow our business down. We’re going to have to raise our prices. And by the time it goes from us to our distributor to the retailer to the consumer, this $12.99 six-pack of beer is going to end up at $18.99.”

But New Zealand businesses are also nervous. I’ve previously reported on the New Zealand wine industry’s booming popularity in America – recently returning from a short vacation in the Californian desert and almost every bar or restaurant there had at least one Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc on the menu. In many places it was the house wine.

For this industry – of which 40% was exported to the United States – any tariff was very challenging.

Back at Neir’s Tavern as I wrap filming, Loycent Gordon was already showing another group of punters around the historic rooms, the walls adorned with pictures and movie memorabilia. A merchandise station packed with t-shirts and mugs.

The tavern had a special place in his heart, having been involved in a campaign to save it 15 years ago. What started with him working as a volunteer ended up with Gordon buying the place.

He also advocated for other small businesses in the area, and he said everyone was “nervous”, with many, especially in the greater New York area, operating with a very thin cash flow.

“We are unsure of what’s going to happen and how much pivoting we need to do — and if we have the resources to pivot to stay sustainable,” he said.

“We’re going to see a decrease in small businesses, at least for the short term before the American ingenuity starts to come back again. But people are going to suffer in the meantime.”

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