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A column chronicling conversations and events on the awards circuit.
BAFTA’s film awards take place Sunday, and they might say a lot about where this long awards season is heading. There can be no doubt that the BAFTAs followed by SAG’s Actor Awards next weekend can be influential as these two major ceremonies occur as the beginning of final Oscar voting starts (February 26 through March 5). Or not.
As previously reported, the nominations for the newly renamed Actor Awards completely shut out international contenders competing at both BAFTA and the Oscars — Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent being two key examples — so there are bound to be differences there. And as for BAFTA, it has had a wildly spotty record in agreeing with Oscar’s final choice for Best Picture, matching only 10 out of 24 times at bat this century. BAFTA and Oscar have matched only twice since 2014 (Nomadland and Oppenheimer), with last year’s BAFTA winner Conclave being only the latest example of disagreement as Oscar chose Anora. So what does this mean?
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Essentially it will tell us if BAFTA goes to a British favorite like Hamnet over a solid front-runner like One Battle After Another. Well, that’s just BAFTA being BAFTA despite reportedly having about 500 voting members in common with AMPAS– give or take 100. It fluctuates. One Battle After Another has scored a clean sweep of major precursor wins this season, extremely rare, even starting with the Gothams. Since the Golden Globes splits its Best Picture prizes between Comedy/Musical and Drama, Hamnet was able to share in that glory with comedy winner One Battle, giving it hope going into BAFTA to make another dent in Warner Bros’ victory march.
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Focus Features is eager to point out that Hamnet’s international gross is over $50 million and recently surpassed rival nominee Sinners as the highest-grossing of all Best Picture BAFTA contenders in the UK. It also doesn’t hurt to have producer Steven Spielberg out there beating the drum at the Oscar Nominees Lunch and making acceptance speeches at the Globes. Another heavyweight producer of the film, Sam Mendes, recently moderated a London Q&A with director Chloé Zhao. We shall see how this matters, if at all, at BAFTA where Will Shakespeare is a hometown boy.
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON ON THE GLIDE PATH
My guess is that nothing at BAFTA is going to derail Paul Thomas Anderson and his latest Battle on the awards circuit, but if it happens, that certainly could shift a bit of momentum at a crucial point. The next Sunday at the Actor Awards, I am predicting a Sinners victory for Outstanding Cast (SAG’s version of Best Picture) over One Battle. SAG has a strong track record of supporting Black-themed films with Black Panther, Hidden Figures and The Help winning that award (while not going on to win the Oscar). Should Battle somehow lose Best Film at BAFTA, and then again get blanked at the Actor Awards (a possibility) just as Oscar voting is heating up, could that make it less invincible, especially with Oscar’s system of preferential balloting for Best Picture? It is an evolving story as we head to the finish line.
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No matter what happens in the Best Film category at BAFTA, I can’t imagine a scenario that doesn’t see DGA, Globes and Critics Choice Best Director winner Paul Thomas Anderson taking the Director award there. Interestingly, though, while rivals like Zhao, Ryan Coogler and others have been active on the Q&A circuit, Anderson — long overdue for an Oscar after 14 nominations — as is usually his case, plays it very low key, only occasionally turning up for a Q&A. At the Santa Barbara Film Festival, he was the only one of the five Oscar-nominated directors not to appear at its annual Outstanding Director of the Year evening, even though he did make an unannounced appearance at SBIFF the night before to present his stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn with their Hammond Cinema Vanguard Awards after a fun evening with the trio that I hosted.
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Anderson killed with a very funny speech that, believe it or not, compared the whole thing to The Dating Game. In the green room, I congratulated him on the DGA award he had just won two nights earlier, and he said that one meant so much to him because it came from his peers. It really registered for him. I had moderated a panel with Anderson and his six stars at the Motion Picture Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theatre following the official Academy screening of One Battle After Another before it opened in September. The massive and enthusiastic standing ovation the director got from the turnaway crowd (unusual at AMPAS these days) was a telltale sign this movie was going all the way. And so far, it has.
THE BAFTA UNDERDOG THAT COULD UPSET
Another thing to look out for at BAFTA is the surprise contender I Swear, a true story about a man with Tourette syndrome who grew up to make a difference in the fight against that mysterious disease. It is an inspiring film up for five BAFTAs including Outstanding British Film, Original Screenplay and Best Actor for Robert Aramayo, the latter just moving up to second (3-1 odds with a 25% chance to win) in the Fair Play Sports Betting market behind only front-runner Timothée Chalamet (4-11 with 73% chance) and ahead of DiCaprio, Hawke, Jordan and Plemons (!) On top of that, Aramayo is the beneficiary of 50% of all bets in the past 24 hours, indicating some building momentum. This film premiered at Toronto in September and doesn’t even open in the U.S. until April through Sony Pictures Classics, which sent me a link to be sure and watch pre-BAFTA. I screened it last night, and Aramayo is extraordinary, a performance so precise and remarkable it reminded me of what Eddie Redmayne did in his Oscar-winning The Theory of Everything. Not eligible for Oscars this time, Aramayo will be for next year, and you can bet he’ll be in the running, an unusual situation since BAFTA and Oscar usually are in lock-step on these things, calendar-wise.
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CAN ‘ZOOTOPIA 2‘ SURPRISE AT THE OSCARS? ASAD AYAZ HOPES SO
And while we are on the subject of all things BAFTA, Sunday could be the breakthrough moment for, well, 2025’s highest-grossing studio movie, Zootopia 2 which to date has made $1.8 billion and counting for Disney? It is behind only another animated film from China, Ne Zha 2 with $2.2. billion. And with $600 million alone from China, Zootopia 2 has broken Disney records there as well, passing The Avengers and to become the biggest Hollywood movie of all time there. This sequel to the Oscar-winning 2016 pic is a true phenomenon, so you might think it would have a leg up in the race for this year’s Animated Feature Oscar as it has clearly hit a nerve, and not just with kids.
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However, the fact is it has been defeated at most awards shows so far by another animated phenomenon, Netflix and Sony Pictures Animation’s streaming sensation, KPop Demon Hunters, the most viewed movie in Netflix history. But the Netflix film isn’t eligible at BAFTA, even though its Oscar-nominated and Grammy-winning smash hit song “Golden” is going to be performed there anyway. At BAFTA Zootopia 2 only has to beat Disney stable mate Elio and the delightful LIttle Amelie: Or the Character of Rain, and it is certainly favored to do so, which would mark an awards season breakthrough for this huge hit. It also is up there for Children’s & Family Film, so it has a couple of shots to make its mark in advance of Oscar voting. It also is up for seven Annie Awards on Saturday night, but far behind KPop’s 13 and even Elio’s 10. That’s a head-scratcher because Zootopia 2 is such a sharp sequel, even surpassing the original, with much to say and a lot of appeal beyond just a kids base. I hopped on a Zoom with 20-year Disney veteran and Head of Marketing and Chief Brand Officer Asad Ayaz and asked him why it has not registered higher in the awards sphere so far this year.
“The original Zootopia, as you know, won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. I think that was nine years ago, and it beat out some great movies in doing so. This is a sequel to that movie. It is a very, very high-quality film. I actually love this movie, personally, more than I love the first movie. But I think this is a better film in a lot of ways.” he said. “And as for KPop Demon Hunters, you know sometimes movies are in the culture. KPop was definitely a breakout hit for them. It was the music that broke out in a big way. And obviously that movie has gotten the recognition it has gotten, but I think I am still very hopeful for Zootopia 2, given what this movie is, artistically and creatively, but also what it’s done for cinema around the world and theaters around the world is is enormous. And I hope voters take that into consideration as we head into the Oscar voting process that is the hope. So much of the reporting around Zootopia has been on the box office. It’s just unbelievable what’s happening. And I’m just grateful that now we get to talk about kind of why it is so successful. And, you know, just the work that [directors Jared Bush and Byron Howard], the cast, the voice talent, the entire ensemble, creative team at Disney Animation put into this movie, because it’s unbelievable. It’s one of the biggest of all time and one of the most beloved of all time, frankly. And I think we’ll live on for a very, very long time.”
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We talked about maybe the idea that a sequel like this or Inside Out 2 last year can be taken for granted, or even dismissed as kids fare, but the fact is this one has been drawing all audiences including people without kids. To make this kind of money, it would have to do that. It also seems to be resonating, especially in China, where the characters seem to connect on a very deep level. It also plays to older audiences which is why it has been marketed as a four quadrant movie. “The humor in the movie is kind of sophisticated, and I think does appeal, like you said, to adults as well,” Ayaz said. “The movie is really entertaining, and there’s a lot going on. It’s funny, but it’s also got complexities that have parallels to our world. You’ve got this great relationship between Nick and Judy, their friendship, but you’ve also got all kinds of other themes of breaking down barriers, and underdogs who are taking on corruption. If you really think about the movie, there’s all these different themes that just connect with audiences all over the world.”
