Like a veteran high roller playing the odds, indie film execs crowding the new Vegas venue at the Palms Casino for this year’s American Film Market are hedging their bets. The independent film business, a risky proposal at the best of times, has becoming increasingly precarious with theatrical releases an all-or-nothing proposal — the jackpot of Longlegs versus the bust of Borderlands and Megalopolis — and buyers hesitant to place their chips on anything that doesn’t look like a sure thing.
For indie movies at the AFM, that means a doubling down on genre films, particularly horror and action, and a move away from drama and comedy titles, which are considered riskier bets internationally.
“People are really focused on genre, even some of the smaller international sales companies are boosting their genre slates,” notes one U.S. seller. “Success has become impossible to predict and everyone is looking for anything that has a built-in audience.”
The box office success of Longlegs and Terrifier 3, in particular, have made horror projects even more attractive, and there are scares aplenty at the market this year, with hot projects including Twilight of The Dead, the final film in George A. Romero’s legendary zombie franchise, which The Machinistfilmmaker Brad Anderson will direct and Fortitude is selling; and the psychological horror project Victoria Psycho, from Anton, UTA and CAA, which will reteam The Substance star Margaret Qualley with her Sanctuary director Zachary Wigon.
But the big bets at the AFM this year will be on a return to action, with several high-profile projects including Martin Campbell’s Cleaner, a Die Hard-style hostage thriller starring Daisy Ridley from Anton; Black Bear’s Hammer Down with Idris Elba as a truck driver protecting his daughter during a heist; and Russell Crowe headlining sword-and-sandals actioner The Last Druid, which AGC Studios, Range Media and CAA Media Finance are pitching in Vegas. Lionsgate, coming off a series of high-profile box office misses, is rolling the dice on shoot-’em-ups with a lineup that includes Day Drinker, an action thriller reuniting Pirates of the Caribbean stars Johnny Depp and Penélope Cruz; holiday-themed action comedy Fairytale in New York featuring Everything Everywhere All at Once star Ke Huy Quan and Three Hitmen and a Baby, an action-comedy from Bullet Train producers 87North, which promises an action riff on the Three Men and a Baby concept, though details on cast and director remain under wraps. CAA will also be looking to lock down a domestic deal on Cliffhanger, Jaume Collet-Serra’s big-budget reboot of the 1993 actioner, featuring Lily James and Pierce Brosnan, which has already begun production. Rocket Science is mopping up international sales on the project, which Studiocanal will release in multiple territories.
“There’s definitely a desire, internationally, for action movies, but we’ll really know how big that appetite is after AFM,” notes one American producer. “The market is changing so fast that any trends come and go faster and faster. What’s hot one market will be a flop the next.”
This week could also reveal whether AFM’s move to Vegas after a decades-long stint in Santa Monica will be bonanza or bust. Exhibitors are already complaining about the cost of the new location. One Brit-based seller said his Palms Casino booth cost $30,000 for the market, “four times what I was paying [outside the AFM building] in Santa Monica.” Others moaned about hidden costs — $500 to hook up a hotel room TV with a box to play movie trailers, $150 to empty the minibar of high-cost alcohol before the market — that will add to the tally when they assess whether to return next year.
But all agree that having the entire AFM, buyers, sellers, conferences and — thanks to the 14-screen theater complex on location — market screenings under one roof should make this year’s event more efficient. Plenty of AFM attendees are already missing Santa Monica’s beaches and the old market’s proximity to Hollywood agents, producers, talent and financiers. But given the high-stakes nature of the indie film business these days, holding a market on the Vegas strip seems particularly apt.
“Theatrical releases have become a crap shoot,” notes one Belgium-based buyer. “So maybe Vegas is a good fit.”
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