REPUBLICAN INROADS INTO DEMOCRATIC BASES
The 2024 election cycle provides yet another data point indicating that the American party system is undergoing a realignment. The parties’ social bases are changing, as are the issues that matter to them.
This can be seen in Trump and Republicans’ continued inroads among African-Americans, Latinos, and Asians – hitherto stalwart constituencies of the Democratic coalition.
Older members of these groups, with their memories of the civil rights movement, remain reliably Democratic. Younger African-Americans, Latinos, and Asians, however, are less attached to the Democratic party identification and can be swayed by the Republicans’ conservative messaging on economic and cultural issues.
This election also suggests that abortion may have run its course as a winning issue for Democrats, at least at the national level.
In the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, winning ballot initiatives protecting abortion rights outperformed Harris. Even in Florida, where the initiative failed due to a super majoritarian requirement, it still outperformed the Vice President’s vote share (57 per cent vs 43 per cent).
Disaffection was strong enough that many Americans split their votes – protecting abortion rights while voting for Trump, despite Harris campaigning heavily on the issue.
Trump campaigned – and won – as the candidate of change. Now the wait begins for the kind of change that he will bring about in his second administration.
Will he build on his broad winning coalition to redeem his campaign promise to restore prosperity for all? Or will it be one that cracks down on perceived enemies at home and withdraws American engagement abroad?
Adrian Ang U-Jin is a Research Fellow and Coordinator of the United States Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
This post was originally published on here
