U.S. Army Spc. Austin Fry, right, an infantryman with Bravo Company, 1st Battalion, 152nd Infantry Regiment, and Spc. Elijah Cliver, an infantryman with Delta Company, 1st Battalion, 152nd Infantry Regiment, Indiana National Guard, provide security near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Feb. 23, 2021. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. 1st Class R.J. Lannom Jr.)
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has decisively seized the presidency for a second time, a victory that could spell uncertainty for US relationships with Ukraine and NATO while also heralding a wider “red wave” throughout government.
Although results are still trickling in, the GOP has successfully taken control of the Senate. And while the House is still in play, Republicans are currently leading Democrats in terms of total seats flipped.
Here are the big defense headlines from the 2024 election:
Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee Chair Tester Loses
In one of the tightest races of the night, Montana Democrat Sen. Jon Tester was defeated by Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a Navy SEAL.
Tester has fought for higher topline spending for defense during the FY 25 budget process, arguing that the lower funding levels mandated under the Fiscal Responsibility Act would create risk for military personnel and operations. Tester and Appropriations Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., worked across the aisle with Maine Sen. Susan Collins, the top Republican for the appropriations committee and defense subcommittee, to put forward a FY25 defense spending proposal that included $21 billion in emergency defense funds.
Representing the state that is home to Malmstrom Air Force Base — one of the three bases that operate intercontinental ballistic missiles in the US northern tier — Tester is also known as a fierce advocate for the Sentinel ICBM program set to replace the aging Minuteman IIIs.
Although Sheehy was leading the polls in the final days ahead of the election, the Navy SEAL faced questions about his military record, specifically on an injury he claimed he received in a firefight in Afghanistan, The Hill reported.
On national security issues, Sheehy on his website that the United States must “fund our military and stand strong against China, secure our southern border, and once again, make America energy dominant and independent.”
Outcome Uncertain For House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee Chair Calvert
The race between House Appropriations defense subcommittee chair Ken Calvert, R-Calif, and his Democratic challenger, Will Rollins, for California’s 41st district is still too close to call, with the Associated Press reporting a percentage point difference between the two candidates with 69 percent of votes reported in. Analysts view this race as a key battleground that could help determine which party will control the House moving forward.
Calvert became chairman of the House appropriations defense subcommittee in 2023 following four years as its top Republican.
Throughout the FY25 budget cycle, Calvert championed a defense spending proposal that hews to the budget caps set out by the Fiscal Responsibility Act and contains numerous conservative provisions on abortion, LGBTQ rights and climate change. He held a hard line against additional funding for Ukraine and a second Virginia-class submarine during committee deliberations of the bill, instead prioritizing increased funds for Israel, F-35s and counter-drug operations.
During his two-year tenure as head of the House appropriations defense subcommittee, Calvert has promoted Silicon Valley defense startups and Pentagon organizations focused on technological innovation, such as the Defense Innovation Unit. In the FY24 defense budget, he proposed a $1 billion hedge portfolio managed by DIU, which would field low-cost munitions, satellites and drones — a mechanism Calvert wrote in a Breaking Defense op-ed could help change the Pentagon’s “culture of risk-avoidance.”
While defense issues were not a major focus of the race, Rollins — who Calvert previously defeated in 2022 — touted his work for the Department of Justice’s National Security Division, which led to the prosecutions of “individuals illegally helping the Iranian and Chinese militaries,” according to his website.
Sen. Deb Fischer Wins Against Dark Horse Independent
Sen. Deb Fischer, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, successfully beat back Dan Osborn, an independent challenger whose shock victory would have threatened to turn the tide of the Senate.
Fischer, who is also a member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, is best known in the defense world for advocacy on modernizing all three legs of the nuclear triad, in particular her support for the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic system currently under development by the Air Force. As the likely pick to lead SASC’s strategic forces subcommittee under a Republican Senate, she would play a leading role in shaping the committee’s nuclear and space policy positions going forward. Fischer took office in 2013 and is the senior senator for Nebraska.
As Osborn — a veteran of the Navy and the Nebraska Army National Guard — closed in on Fischer in the polls, he repeatedly refused to say whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans if elected, according to MSNBC.
Osborn is critical of Pentagon waste and of lobbying efforts by defense contractors, and had instead pledged to raise pay for troops. “From forty dollar hammers that cost ten bucks at the hardware store, to $10,000 switches that cost a couple hundred dollars to manufacture, price gouging is draining our military of the resources to defend this country. Meanwhile, military families struggle to put food on the table,” his website states.
Rep. Don Bacon Takes Lead, But Race Not Over
Rep. Don Bacon, who chairs the House Armed Services cyber, IT and innovation subcommittee, is currently leading in a tight race against Democratic challenger Tony Vargas for Nebraska’s 2nd district. The Cook Political Report had rated the race “leans Democrat” in its latest Nov. 1 update, but the Associated Press currently has Bacon leading by almost 3 percent with 99 percent of votes counted.
Bacon, who retired from the Air Force in 2014 as a brigadier general, was known in defense circles as one of Congress’s biggest advocates for the Air Force, with his background on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and electronic warfare often informing his questions during HASC hearings. He is also a strong voice on nuclear modernization, representing the district that is home to US Strategic Command and Offutt Air Force Base, and — unlike a large portion of House Republicans — has continued to support military aid for Ukraine. A moderate Republican, Bacon has been a HASC member since taking office in 2017.
Vargas, a senator for Nebraska’s state legislature since 2017, said he would support military aid for Ukraine and Israel during an October debate, the Nebraska Examiner reported then.
Other Races Of Note:
- In the House, Rep. Mike Garcia, a Republican member of the House appropriations defense subcommittee, is currently leading Democratic challenger George Whitesides for California’s 27th district, a region known as Antelope Valley that is a hotspot for defense aviation. Garcia, a former Navy pilot, leads the House’s fighter pilot caucus.
- Democrat Eugene Vindman, a former Army officer, is currently leading Derrick Anderson, a former Army green beret, for Virginia’s 7th district. Vindman is best known for helping his brother, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, report that Trump had urged Ukrainian officials to investigate the Biden family.
- Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a retired Marine, is leading Republican Kari Lake for the Arizona senate seat to be vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego is the top Democrat on HASC’s intelligence and special operations committee.
- Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin has declared victory over GOP challenger Eric Hovde for Wisconsin’s senate race. Baldwin is a member of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee.
- The race for Michigan’s senate seat is still too close to call, with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic HASC member, battling it out against former Rep. Mike Rogers, who chaired the House intelligence committee from 2011 to 2015.
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