Thanksgiving Air Travel Set For Record High As Travel Finally Returns To Pre-Pandemic Levels

Topline

Thanksgiving travel by air, boat and car is expected to hit pre-pandemic levels and break records across the board, AAA said Monday, with 79.9 million people expected to venture more than 50 miles away from home between the Tuesday before and Monday after the holiday.

Key Facts

Almost 2 million more people are expected to travel this year than last, with 71.7 million going by car (or about 90%) and 5.8 million by air (7.3%).

Car travel is expected to overtake pre-pandemic levels—70.6 million people drove to their Thanksgiving destinations in 2019, AAA reports.

Lower gas prices have been cited as one potential reason for the 1.7 million more people expected to travel by car this year—the national average was $3.26 for a gallon of gas around Thanksgiving 2023, compared to $3.07 now, with the potential to fall below $3 per gallon before the holiday.

Almost 6 million people are expected to fly domestically, up 11% from 2019 and 2% from 2023 despite a 3% increase in ticket prices in the last year (rates for international flights, however, are down 5% and bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving).

The remaining 2.3 million people expected to travel this Thanksgiving week will do so by buses, cruises and trains, with cruise bookings up more than 20% compared to 2023.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are the worst time to travel by car, AAA reported, with road congestion also expected almost all day Sunday, particularly after 1 p.m.

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Crucial Quote

“AAA continues to see travel demand soar post-pandemic with our members looking for new adventures and memorable vacations,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said.

What Are The Most Popular Thanksgiving Destinations?

Based on AAA booking data from Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2, Florida is the most popular domestic destination this Thanksgiving. Of the top 10 places, four are in Florida—Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa. Other hot spots are New York City, Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Atlanta. Internationally, the top destinations are Budapest, Hungary; Mexicali, Mexico; San Juan, Puerto Rico; Cancun, Mexico; and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

Surprising Fact

This Thanksgiving isn’t expected to bring a surge in wintertime illness. COVID-19 levels have been receding since September following a summertime surge and respiratory disease levels of COVID, flu and RSV are at pre-pandemic lows.The weekly test positivity rate for COVID in the first week of November was 4.7%, down significantly compared to 9.3% in the same week last year, 6.5% in 2022, 6.3% in 2021 and 10.2% in 2020. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports transmission of COVID, influenza and RSV are low so far this month.