NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
The admiral in charge of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said this week that he expects Russia to advance China’s underwater warfare capabilities by supplying key submarine technology to Beijing.
Adm. Sam Paparo told a security conference in Halifax, Nova Scotia, that the technology, if supplied, would undermine a key strategic advantage of the United States: quieter and more lethal submarines.
“I expect Russia to provide submarine technology to the PRC that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance to the PRC,” the four-star admiral said, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.
China is engaged in a major buildup of submarine warfare capabilities that U.S. defense officials say has shown major improvements in both stealth and weapons power. Chinese leaders have placed a high priority on building advanced submarines, as part of what military leaders have called the largest building up of any military force since World War II.
As Inside the Ring disclosed Oct. 30, China’s military built three new cruise missile-firing nuclear submarines seen as a significant advance in the attack submarine program. “This is especially important as these are the first cruise missile submarines in the Chinese inventory,” a defense official said.
China’s submarine force has not increased in numbers, unlike its expanding warship, warplane and missile arsenal. Instead, the Chinese military is building more modern and lethal submarines to detect U.S. attack submarines — key weapons that would be called upon to strike Chinese ships and submarines in the event of any future invasion or blockade of Taiwan.
The Chinese navy currently operates six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 48 diesel-powered/air-independent powered attack submarines.
“The PLAN’s submarine force is expected to grow to 65 units by 2025 and 80 units by 2035, despite the ongoing retirement of older hulls due to an expansion of submarine construction capacity,” the Pentagon’s 2023 report on the Chinese military said.
Adm. Paparo also warned that Russia is expected to supply advanced military technology to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang sending thousands of troops to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. “I expect Russia to provide missile technology and submarine technology to North Korea,” he said. Currently, the North Korean military is also providing artillery and KN-24 tactical missiles to Russia for use in the conflict.
Adm. Paparo said North Korea’s communist regime is on a dangerous trajectory that has increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
“North Korea is redefining the North Korean state in KJU’s image,” he said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “He’s making enormous changes to the border, eliminating communications lines between north and south.”
The Kim regime in North Korea also has redefined the South Koreans as an enemy and the entire state of North Korea has been weaponized, he said.
Adm. Paparo said the mounting threat posed by North Korea was partly responsible for the landmark Camp David agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea reached in August 2023.
As a result of North Korean, Russian and Chinese threats to the region, the United States and its regional allies are sharing real-time intelligence within military command and control networks, intelligence that is part of an integrated ballistic missile defense network, Adm. Paparo said.
Adm. Paparo also said the idea that the United States will be successful in driving a wedge between the three powers is “fantasy.”
In the case of Iran, its Shahed drones sent to Russia are being used as a “loitering” munition that is complicating Ukrainian air defenses. The drones occupy air defenses so that precision strikes can be carried out, he said.
Chinese companies, Adm. Paparo said, have helped Moscow rebuild its war machine by providing 90% of Russia’s semiconductors and 70% of its machine tools.
Trump inheriting counterintelligence ’disaster’
China’s Ministry of State Security intelligence service is behind the damaging penetration of American telecommunications networks and highlights a counterintelligence “disaster” facing the incoming Trump administration, according to a former National Security Agency counterspy.
John Schindler, an outspoken former NSA counterintelligence expert, said the Chinese intelligence penetration, code-named Salt Typhoon, is compounded by a second major counterspy failure — the recent leak of top secret intelligence on U.S. knowledge of Israeli plans for attacks on Iran.
The FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency announced recently that Chinese hackers had compromised networks of U.S. telecommunications companies and obtained sensitive information, including “law enforcement requests pursuant to court orders.”
“The counterintelligence implications of Salt Typhoon are staggering,” Mr. Schindler wrote in an analysis of the case. “Our intelligence community relies on cooperation by major IT firms, such as Verizon and AT&T, to execute lawful surveillance activities inside the U.S. and beyond.”
Chinese spies were operating inside the networks for months after compromising Cisco routers. The operation also employed artificial intelligence to enhance the breach.
That means it is likely Chinese intelligence accessed court-approved FBI and NSA wiretaps against suspected foreign spies and thus could gather communications through the compromised American firms.
“That’s what the MSS was targeting with Salt Typhoon,” Mr. Schindler said on Nov. 17. “If Beijing had gotten its eyes on those activities by the [intelligence community], which it appears it did, Chinese spies would have known who and what American counterspies were spying on, including the names of who we suspect to be Beijing’s secret agents in America and across the West. At best, we’ve shown the enemy our hand in the ‘Spy War.’ At worst, we’ve gifted the MSS a golden opportunity to deceive us.”
Knowing which Chinese intelligence personnel were under U.S. surveillance would allow Beijing to deceive the FBI, NSA and CIA with lies designed to undermine U.S. policies and activities.
Mr. Schindler, in the analysis posted on his blog “Top Secret Umbra,” quoted a senior U.S. counterspy in describing Salt Typhoon: “Our worst nightmare. Beijing stole our lunch.”
In addition to Verizon, AT&T and Lumen, T-Mobile also acknowledged that its networks were breached by MSS hackers.
“The truth here is unpleasant. Via Salt Typhoon, Beijing accessed a wide array of sensitive communications, including call logs, unencrypted texts and audio communications from senior U.S. government officials in the national security realm,” Mr. Schindler said.
The new Trump administration thus faces severe counterintelligence problems and spy agencies need to make reforms to address the problems, he said, adding that “the time for frittering with half-measures has passed.”
Regarding the disclosure of Israeli war plans, federal authorities on Nov. 12 arrested Asif William Rahman, a CIA overseas employee, in Cambodia. He was charged with unlawfully transmitting two highly classified documents that were posted online in an apparent pro-Iran or pro-Palestinian action.
The Justice Department said in announcing the arrest that the investigation of Mr. Rahman included the State Department Diplomatic Security Service, a sign he may have been working abroad under diplomatic cover.
Coast Guard warns on Chinese cranes
The Coast Guard has issued a second security directive warning that Chinese ship-to-shore cranes used widely in the United States pose a cybersecurity risk. Maritime Security Directive 105-5 calls on port operators to take “risk management” measures to mitigate the threats.
Built-in vulnerabilities for remote access and control of the cranes “combined with intelligence regarding China’s interest in disrupting U.S. critical infrastructure, necessitate immediate action,” according to a portion of the directive first noted by the trade website gCaptain.
The directive is the second security order issued by the Coast Guard regarding Chinese-made STS cranes, which claim the largest share of the global ship-to-shore crane market, including 80% of cranes at U.S. ports.
“By design, these cranes may be controlled, serviced and programmed from remote locations, and those features potentially leave STS cranes manufactured by [Chinese] companies vulnerable to exploitation, threatening the maritime elements of the national transportation system,” a Nov. 19 Federal Register notice on the directive states. The actual directive was not published because it contains “security-sensitive information.”
The directive calls on all owners or operators of STS cranes to immediately contact Coast Guard at ports using the cranes.
An investigative report by the House Homeland Security Committee in September stated that the container shipping cranes made by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries, a state-owned company known as ZPMC, pose significant cybersecurity and national security threats.
“The evidence gathered during our joint investigation indicates that ZPMC could, if desired, serve as a Trojan horse capable of helping the [Chinese Communist Party] and the PRC military exploit and manipulate U.S. maritime equipment and technology at their request,” said committee Chairman Mark E. Green, Tennessee Republican.
The crane manufacturer was linked to efforts by China to militarize disputed islands in the South China Sea.
“Cybersecurity risks include unauthorized installations of cellular modems on cranes and ZPMC’s requests for remote access to its cranes in U.S. ports,” the report said.
The FBI reportedly discovered electronic intelligence-collection devices on Chinese cranes in the port of Baltimore.
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