HAVANA TIMES – Venezuela is experiencing a countdown to January 10, 2025, charged with tension. That’s the date a new six-year presidential term will begin, but it remains unknown whether the current ruler Nicolas Maduro will be sworn in again, or if it will be his electoral opponent, Edmundo Gonzalez.
“The government’s short-term objective is for Maduro to take the oath once again on January 10. He has all the means to assure that this will happen, and there’s no indication that anything will occur to interfere with the process,” stated Phil Gunson, International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Andean region.
The opposition “has begun to recognize that things are moving that way, even though Maria Corina Machado, the principal opposition leader, still insists that Maduro is cornered,” Gunson added. His organization, based in Brussels, specializes in conflict resolution.
Machado, whose presidential candidacy was blocked by the government well before Venezuela’s July 28, 2024 election, was the opposition’s battering ram in the campaign, backing her anointed successor Edmundo Gonzalez. According to the election tallies her party was able to confirm, the voters gave Gonzalez a resounding victory, with at least 7.3 million votes (67%) compared to Maduro’s 3.3 million (30%).
Venezuela’s electoral power and Supreme Court – the chief national powers – backed by the Armed Forces, are all under the control of the official government party. These institutions proclaimed victory for Maduro, announcing he had received 53% of the votes, against Gonzalez’ 43%. However, they never released the individual polling place tallies to support their numbers.
From her clandestine location, Maria Corina Machado has offered a flood of interviews as the holiday season approaches. In these, she insists that Maduro “is weaker, and for that reason we’re facing the most dangerous hours, because a regime that knows they’re against the wall acts with desperation.”
Edmundo Gonzalez, exiled in Spain, assures that he will be in Latin America for the first days of January, and that on the 10th he’ll be in Venezuela, ready to assume the presidency. He has refused to reveal his strategy for doing this, having declared “there’ll be surprises,” even though the authorities have announced that if he so much as sets foot on the ground there, they’ll imprison him.
On their social media accounts, both Machado and Gonzalez hint they’ll be carrying out tactical moves immediately before or after January 10th. They remind their loyal followers that – no matter what – even if Maduro refuses to negotiate and cements himself in power, they’ll continue fighting “to the end.”
Maduro “has the opportunity to accept the terms of a negotiation that we’ve offered, with incentives and guarantees that would grant stability to Venezuela,” Machado has said. “If, on the other hand, he clings to power by force and repression, it will be the worst mistake of his life.”
Something is going to happen
Venezuela’s markets, cafes, bakeries and other workplaces, as well as social media, are buzzing with commentaries that “something is going to happen,” possibly something very different than a serene presidential inauguration.
For example, Carmen Valero, a home visit therapist who resides in the impoverished Petare neighborhood in east Caracas, told IPS: “Something has to happen. They tell me this everywhere I go for my work – that someone or something is going to appear to stop this man who wants to perpetuate himself in power.”
Contrary to her view, Hector Machado, a retired university employee who lives in a working-class neighborhood in west Caracas, told the news site: “Nothing unusual is going to happen, because the opposition lost their capacity to mobilize. Anyone who goes out to protest on January 10 will be arrested, and the soldiers are with Maduro.”
In the final months of the year, Venezuela’s National Assembly – also dominated by the official party and its allies – approved a set of laws that reduce civic spaces and in practice nullify the possibility of dissent without being punished, according to human rights organizations within the country and outside it, including the United Nations.
The protest demonstrations that followed Maduro’s proclamation of an electoral victory were repressed in the days following July 28, resulting in 27 deaths and some 2,000 prisoners, including opposition leaders, activists, and journalists.
The opposition disappeared from the streets, so that now only demonstrations in favor of the government take place, from groups who present themselves as the government’s “civil-military-police alliance.”
Maduro has asked his followers to go out on the streets to rally “by the millions” on January 10. He also announced that he’s preparing a Constitutional reform, “with the help of national and international advisors, to consolidate the country’s sovereignty.”
The snowball of rumors and wishes fed by hardline government opponents has also been nourished by the governments of European and North American countries, who have recognized Gonzalez as the true winner of the election; and from the refusal of some of Maduro’s old leftist allies to recognize his claims of victory, including Gustavo Petra in Colombia and Luis Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
There’s also speculation about the upcoming change of government in the United States. During his first term (2017-2021), president-elect Donald Trump took a hard line, implementing strict sanctions against the Maduro government. Now he has chosen Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Christopher Landau as his deputy, both advocates of such policies.
During his years in the US Senate, Rubio, has consistently taken a “hawkish” stand against the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. For his part, Landau is a diplomat well versed in Venezuelan history and politics.
Still, it remains unknown what policy or policies the United States will employ: a tough hand, with more sanctions, political encirclement and perhaps support for some kind of forceful exit; or a pragmatic understanding, considering that Venezuela is an exporter not only of oil but also of migrants, whom Trump wants to return to their countries of origin.
Of the almost eight million Venezuelans who have migrated abroad -a quarter of the population- more than 600,000 have gone to the United States. The national “Poder y Estrategia” polling firm reports that up to 25% of the country’s youth and adults plan to leave if Maduro remains in power.
After January 10
Inside the country, the great unknown is what will happen if Maduro assumes power on January 10 and continues to disdain the majority who voted against him, while facing greater opposition from foreign governments.
Rafael Uzcategui, of the NGO Laboratorio de Paz en Venezuela [“Laboratory for Peace”] told IPS that there’s fear of a possible assault against the political opposition, and the social organizations, whose activists “are converting to working clandestinely.”
“It’s probable that January 10th will go by with no visible incidents, in an atmosphere of strong surveillance and repression. Since July 28, we’ve been seeing reinforced repression from the government, with the participation of all the public institutions, academic Guillermo Tell Aveledo told IPS.
This reinforced repression “suggests that any attempt to question the legitimacy of the [inaugural] event, will be neutralized beforehand. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the system will remain stable in the medium term,” noted Aveledo, dean of Law and Political studies at Caracas’ Universidad Metropoiltana.
Despite the perception of iron control, “the structural problems persist. Management deficiencies, the lack of fiscal resources and restrictions in accessing external financing are evident,” he stated.
He added: “In the social arena, the demands that motivated the discontent expressed in the recent elections continue, with no clear response. In addition, internal persecution within the government apparatus, aimed at functionaries whose loyalty is under question, may be generating additional tensions.”
“Finally, the questioning of the legitimacy of the system opens a space for disaffected or opportunistic political actors to try to take advantage of the moment to demand a change of course,” postulated Aveledo.
Phil Gunson, of the International Crisis Group, believes “the only viable solution for Venezuela is an in-depth negotiation leading to a democratic transition. However, for that both government and opposition must be willing, and so far that has never been the case,” practically since the beginning of this century.
“The government applies as much repression as it deems necessary to stay in power. For there to be some kind of easing, it has to feel more secure, and we will begin to see that after January 10th,” Gunson pointed out.
Lastly, he added: “the first thing that governments seeking to improve the situation in Venezuela have to do is not do things that make it worse. A return to ‘maximum pressure’ would be a mistake.”
Suspense surrounds the political situation in Venezuela at the end of 2024, with no complete certainty as to who will be its president in the coming days; or if a stabilization process is underway involving new rules of the game. Likewise, if in the coming year or years a new surprise awaits, in a power struggle that has been going on for decades.
First published in Spanish by IPS and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.
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