Venezuela’s ultimate political survivor Nicolás Maduro faces his toughest challenge yet

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is facing more international rebuke than at any time in his 12 years in power.

The self-declared socialist is widely believed to have lost last year’s election by a landslide. That sparked criticism by the United States and others that the vote was stolen and forced Maduro to turn to security forces to repress and arrest opponents.

Now he’s set to be sworn in for a third term Friday, even as the opposition challenger who claims to have won is vowing to return from exile by then.

Maduro seems to have thrived on conflict since the late Hugo Chávez passed the torch of his Bolivarian revolution to his loyal aide in 2012. The challenges have ranged from a drone attack and mass protests over the collapse of the oil-rich economy to an international criminal investigation for human rights abuses and a $15 million U.S. bounty tied to allegations of drug trafficking.

The history of Latin America is full of strongmen who rode out disputed elections only to find themselves ousted in short order, from Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet’s attempt to tamper with votes in a 1988 referendum to Peruvian leader Alberto Fujimori’s constitutionally barred third term in 2000.

Ahead is Maduro’s toughest challenge yet — one that will determine the future of Venezuela’s already debilitated democracy.

Baseball or politics?

A biopic produced for last year’s campaign recounted how Maduro grew up in a working-class barrio of Caracas torn between his love of baseball and student activism.

“Make a decision,” a coach tells the teenage pitcher portraying Maduro in the movie. “It’s either baseball or politics.”

In real life, after embracing his father’s radical politics, Maduro was sent to communist Cuba in 1986 for a year of ideological instruction — his only studies after high school.

Upon returning home, he found work as a bus driver and union organizer. He embraced Chávez after the then-army paratrooper in 1992 staged a failed coup against an unpopular austerity government. Around the same time he met his longtime partner, Cilia Flores, a lawyer for the jailed leader.

After Chávez was freed and elected president in 1998, Maduro, a young lawmaker, helped push his agenda of redistributing the OPEC nation’s oil wealth and political power.

International recognition

In 2006, Chávez appointed Maduro foreign minister, a recognition of his work smoothing over tensions with the U.S. following a short-lived coup. In that role, he spread Venezuela’s petrodollars throughout the world, building alliances.

“He was always very disciplined,” said Vladimir Villegas, who has known Maduro since high school and served as his deputy foreign minister until breaking with Chávez.

When Maduro took power in 2013 following his mentor’s death from cancer, he struggled to bring order to the grief-stricken nation. Without “El Comandante” in charge, the economy entered a death spiral — shrinking 71% from 2012 to 2020, with inflation topping 130,000% — and opponents and rivals inside the government smelled blood.

He earned the nickname of “Maburro” among elites for folkish antics like claiming Chávez appeared to him as a “little bird.” Less than a year into his accidental presidency, hardliner opponents launched demonstrations demanding his exit.

Leaning heavily on the security forces, Maduro crushed the protests. But with supermarket shelves empty amid widespread shortages, they resumed with more intensity three years later, leaving more than 100 people dead. In 2018, the International Criminal Court initiated a criminal investigation into possible crimes against humanity.

The crackdown continued into the 2018 presidential race, which the opposition boycotted when several of its leaders were barred from running. Dozens of countries led by the U.S. condemned Maduro’s re-election as illegitimate and recognized Juan Guaidó, the head of the National Assembly, as Venezuela’s elected leader.

More unrest ensued, this time bolstered by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of punishing oil sanctions. Then came a clandestine raid organized by an ex U.S. Green Beret, a barracks uprising and finally the coronavirus pandemic.

Defying the odds

Somehow, after each crisis, Maduro emerged stronger, even if the country’s problems deepened. By 2022, with his opponents vanquished, he took on a new nickname: Super Bigote, a nod to his thick black mustache. It was also a tribute by supporters to his reputation for defying the odds.

He entered the 2024 election with the same mindset, confident that opinion polls showing a groundswell of support for his previously unknown opponent, Edmundo González, were a political weapon leveraged by his enemies and the U.S. to destabilize the country.

Since claiming victory in the face of credible evidence of vote rigging, Maduro has relied on the security forces to round up opponents. This week, González said his son-in-law was kidnapped by masked men. Carlos Correa, a prominent free speech attorney, was also hauled away by masked assailants. The government hasn’t commented on either case.

Michael Shifter, a former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said such acts of repression may indicate weakness that could boomerang against Maduro.

“The key is the armed forces,” Shifter said, adding that the recent downfall of Syria’s ruler, Bashar Assad, has renewed Venezuelans’ hopes for change: “These regimes are very unpredictable and can fall any moment even if they appear quite strong. If it collapses, it will collapse internally.”

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