Alberta Premier Danielle Smith finds herself at the centre of controversy because of her refusal to be part of a “Team Canada” approach to Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
While other provincial premiers have signed on to a common approach, Smith visited the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to make the case against tariffs — at least those affecting the Alberta oil and gas industry.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
She refused to join the other first ministers in signing a statement committing to a unified approach.
She’s also signalled her disapproval of proposals to restrict energy exports or to impose an export tax on them if Trump exempts them from the tariffs.
This has angered many Canadians, including some Albertans.
Alberta oil exports
Smith’s maverick approach reflects Alberta’s unique economic circumstances, its internal politics and its longstanding conflicts with the federal government. Any effort to bring Alberta into a Team Canada approach would have to take these factors into account.
Canada’s top export to the United States is energy products, mostly oil and gas. Almost all of the crude oil that Canada exports goes to the U.S., and most of it comes from Alberta. Alberta exports about 80 per cent of the crude oil it produces.
Although it’s not Canada’s largest province, Alberta is Canada’s largest exporter to the U.S. That means the province’s economy is more exposed to the Trump’s tariff threats than any other province.
Crude oil exports to the U.S. are important both to the Albertan economy and to the provincial government’s finances. In 2024-25, royalties from bitumen are projected to be worth $15.6 billion to the Alberta government. Put another way, 20 per cent of the revenues the Alberta government expects to take in this fiscal year are from this source. This does not take into account revenue from corporate and income tax from the industry.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Internal politics
Alberta has a long history of ties to the U.S. Historian Nelson Wiseman has argued that American settlers who came to Alberta early in the 20th century shaped the province’s political culture along the lines of America’s rugged individualism. The rise of the oil industry created new ties between Alberta and Texas.
Prior to the 2024 election, Albertans were more likely than other Canadians to say that they would vote for Trump if they could vote in the American election. According to a Leger survey, 29 per cent of Albertans would have voted for Trump as compared to 21 per cent of Canadians.
Recent polling data from the Angus Reid Institute shows that the vast majority of Albertans (82 per cent) reject the idea of becoming the 51st state. Although this is a large majority, it is smaller than in the rest of the country at 90 per cent.
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This means the number of voters who would view Smith’s visit to Mar-a-Lago positively is higher in Alberta than in other provinces. Given Smith’s populist orientation, it is reasonable to think her core supporters would be inclined to view the visit favourably.
Beefs with Ottawa
There is a long history of regional alienation in Alberta, dating back to 1905 when it became a province. Control over natural resources has been a persistent conflict between Alberta and Ottawa. These conflicts heightened in the early 1980s over the National Energy Program.
Since the election of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in 2015, there has been significant conflict over the province’s ability to build pipelines, the carbon tax and proposed regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
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Smith ran for her party’s leadership in 2022 on a platform of passing a Sovereignty Act to empower the province to refrain from enforcing federal laws. The legislation she eventually passed could not accomplish this within the rule of law, but did set out a framework for conflicts with Ottawa.
The day after announcing that she would not sign on to the Team Canada approach, Smith released a social media statement that revisited several long-standing grievances with the federal government, including failure to ensure pipelines were built, efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, and to treat Alberta taxpayers with respect when they contributed to equalization.
Is there common ground?
Having the largest exporting province outside the Team Canada approach against Trump doesn’t position the country well to negotiate with a second Trump administration.
Public disputes over whether Canada would limit exports to the U.S. have revealed at least part of Canada’s negotiating position.
Could Alberta be brought into the fold? The decades-long animosity between Alberta and the federal government makes it difficult to imagine. When a new prime minister tackles these challenges, it will be essential to take into account the economic and political circumstances that have brought Canada to this point.
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