As the world watches the political drama unfold in the United States, one question looms large: what would a second Donald Trump presidency mean for global foreign policy? With Trump emerging as the Republican frontrunner for the 2024 election, the prospect of “Trump 2.0” has sparked widespread curiosity and concern. For Africa and other regions, the stakes are high, and the implications are as complex as the man himself.
Trump’s first term was marked by an unorthodox approach to diplomacy, characterised by an “America First” doctrine that disrupted long-standing alliances, reshaped global trade, and redefined US relations with the world. A second term would likely build on this legacy, with both opportunities and challenges for the global community.
One of the most complicated aspects of Trump’s foreign policy is his unpredictable stance on key geopolitical crises, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war. During his first term, Trump’s admiration for strongman leaders like Vladimir Putin raised eyebrows in Western capitals. Although he approved sanctions against Russia following its annexation of Crimea, his often sympathetic rhetoric toward Moscow suggested a more conciliatory stance.
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In a second term, fears abound in Brussels that Trump might halt U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a lifeline in Kyiv’s war against Russia. Such a move would dramatically shift the balance of the conflict, weakening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and emboldening Russia. Yet, Trump’s unpredictability leaves room for other possibilities—he might continue funding Ukraine or even pressure Kyiv to accept a controversial peace proposal favouring Russian terms. This potential to freeze the war through a forced settlement underscores the uncertain global dynamics a second Trump presidency could create.
Trump’s foreign policy was often defined by disdain for multilateral institutions like the United Nations, NATO and the World Trade Organisation. His approach created uncertainty among allies and adversaries alike as he pursued bilateral deals, bypassing traditional channels and reshaping the U.S.’s role on the global stage.
This strategy brought mixed results. Trump’s historic meetings with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un were groundbreaking but ultimately failed to produce a lasting denuclearisation agreement. Similarly, his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal alienated key European allies and escalated tensions in the Middle East.
In Trump 2.0, we could see a continuation of his “transactional diplomacy,” where relationships are judged solely by perceived benefits to the US. While this could lead to short-term gains, the long-term consequences for global stability remain uncertain.
One unusual aspect of Trump’s foreign policy was his reported interest in territorial expansion. In 2019, his proposal to purchase Greenland from Denmark shocked the world. Though dismissed as far-fetched, the idea reflected Trump’s strategic thinking about territorial and resource-based power. Greenland, with its vast natural resources and strategic Arctic location, represents an emerging geopolitical hotspot.
Speculation has also swirled around revisiting control over the Panama Canal, a vital artery of global trade. While such proposals may seem improbable, they hint at Trump’s broader vision of reasserting US influence through control of key global assets. In Trump 2.0, such ambitions could resurface, creating friction with allies and rivals alike.
For Africa, a second Trump presidency presents both challenges and opportunities. During his first term, Africa was largely a footnote in Trump’s foreign policy. His administration’s derogatory comments about African nations damaged the US’s image on the continent. Yet, there were moments of engagement, such as the Prosper Africa initiative, aimed at increasing trade and investment between the US and Africa.
However, Trump’s transactional worldview often left African nations feeling sidelined. In contrast to China’s expansive infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, the US under Trump offered limited economic support, focusing instead on counterterrorism and military aid.
If Trump returns, Africa must navigate a delicate balancing act: engaging with a US that prioritises self-interest while leveraging its growing partnerships with China, Russia, and the European Union. This could be an opportunity for African leaders to assert their agency, demanding equitable partnerships that go beyond aid and security to include trade and technology transfer.
A Trump 2.0 presidency would almost certainly escalate US-China tensions. His first term’s trade war disrupted global markets, and his anti-China rhetoric resonated with a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington. For Africa, which has become a strategic battleground in this rivalry, the consequences could be far-reaching, forcing nations to navigate an increasingly polarised global order.
For global security, Trump’s potential return raises questions about the US’s commitment to collective defence. His strained relations with NATO and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 highlighted his administration’s disregard for global consensus on critical issues like climate change, cyber warfare, and nuclear proliferation.
Ultimately, Trump 2.0 promises a foreign policy as complex and disruptive as his first term. While some may welcome his focus on pragmatic partnerships, the risks of unpredictability, isolationism, and great-power rivalry cannot be ignored. For Africa, the challenge lies in asserting its interests in a rapidly changing global order.
As Trump assumes office as president of the US, the world must prepare for the possibility of another four years of Trump and the profound implications it would have for global foreign policy. Whether one views it as an opportunity or a challenge, one thing is clear: Trump 2.0 would create an indelible mark on the international stage.
Mustapha & Ononiwu sent this piece from Abuja
This post was originally published on here
