Trump’s Immigration Battle Could Cause U.S. Population To Shrink As Migrants Are Targeted

In only eight years, America’s population growth will stop, barring one factor: migration from outside U.S. borders.

That’s the finding from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in a little-noticed report released Jan. 13. The CBO, Congress’ in-house budget and economics experts, compiles annual demographic updates as part of its broader work.

The latest report found that net immigration — the sum total of American citizens migrating from the country versus the number of people coming in, documented or otherwise — would be the sole source of U.S. population growth beginning in 2033, seven years earlier than according to last year’s projections.

“It’s a big deal,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel told reporters Jan. 17.

Why is the date at which migrants account for all population growth now expected to arrive so much sooner? Swagel attributed it to a decline in the rate of U.S. women having children.

“A change in fertility really has profound effects for the U.S. population and the economy,” he said. “We’re already an aging society. And the aging of our society is driving mandatory outlays, of course. It’s driving Social Security and it’s driving Medicare. And the change of fertility, in some sense, accelerates that pattern, the aging of our society.”

Since July 2022, the CBO has steadily moved up the year in which the U.S. becomes dependent on immigration for all of its population growth. In 2022, that year was 2043. In the newest report, it jumped seven years to 2033, the biggest one-year jump since the crossover date began arriving within the 30-year time horizon of the demographic outlook.

The finding comes as President Donald Trump has newly inflamed the immigration debate by issuing several executive orders within a day of returning to the White House, with the aim of stopping migrants from arriving at the U.S. border and seeking asylum. He also ordered the Pentagon to help support building a border wall, and to aid in efforts to detain and transport migrants as part of the launch of his promised mass deportations.

The CBP One mobile app, which many migrants to the U.S. use for scheduling their immigration court appearances, was also shut down, and Trump signed an executive order challenging birthright citizenship, the language in the 14th Amendment to the Constitution that grants citizenship to most people born within the borders of the U.S. and its territories.

Trump’s moves are already being challenged in court by immigration advocates.

Trump came to power the first time in part by savaging undocumented migrants during his campaign, and once in office, he imposed harsh measures, such as family separation, to deter migration into the U.S. Yet when Democratic and Republican senators negotiated a compromise migration and border security bill in early 2024, Trump convinced most GOP senators to oppose it.

During the 2024 election cycle, Trump was even more strident in his rhetoric, promising mass deportations and accusing migrants of “poisoning the blood” of the country.

His new executive order raises the ante for pro-immigration groups.

“America has always been and will increasingly continue to be a nation of immigrants. No matter how hard Trump and his allies may try, immigrants aren’t going anywhere,” said Santiago Mayer, executive director of the Gen Z-focused political group Voters of Tomorrow, which advocates for student loan forgiveness, a higher minimum wage, and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

“It’s past time elected officials recognize the diversity of our generation as a strength and take a stand against Trump’s hatred and xenophobia,” Mayer said.

The CBO has bumped up its estimates of net migration into the U.S. in recent years ― reflecting an increase in migration in what the office calls “other foreign nationals,” people who entered the country illegally, or people who are in the U.S. due to immigration parole authority or while awaiting court proceedings. But declining birth rates are what lie at the heart of the current 2033 projection.

“Before the financial crisis of 2007, 2008, 2009, fertility in the US was right around replacement [rate] — replacement is 2.1 [births per woman] — and fertility declined during the financial crisis and stayed down and then declined again in the pandemic, and has only rebounded modestly,” Swagel said.

The new estimate revised down fertility rates to 1.6 children per female from 1.7, well below the 2.1 rate.

The main reason is a change in the age of the mothers who are giving birth — specifically, a decline in teen and young adult pregnancies. The birth rate for teens and women between the ages of 14 and 29 is now almost half of what it was a dozen or so years ago.

“There’s some increase in fertility among women just beyond that [age]. But it doesn’t compensate for the lower teen and in 20s [birth rates],” Swagel said.

Which women are having children also matters. The CBO report said women born in the U.S. were projected to have a fertility rate of 1.56 in the new update, compared to a rate of 1.88 for women born outside of the U.S.

The report, however, also comes as conservative politicians are making a concerted effort to limit access to reproductive choice, including abortion and contraception, within the United States.

Sixteen states currently have full or effective bans on terminating a pregnancy, and the Trump administration is expected to further restrict access to abortion and contraception. One of the administration’s first acts was to take down the official government website for reproductive care information, which appears to have disappeared from the internet as of Tuesday morning, one day after Trump’s swearing-in.